PythiaFootballBETA
The match between Fiorentina and Atalanta is expected to be a closely contested draw. Recent form suggests that both teams are coming off a draw against each other. The model's selection is an away win, predicting a 42% chance of Atalanta emerging victorious. Conversely, Fiorentina has a 27% chance of winning at home, while a draw is 31% likely.
The expected total goals is 2.3, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.5%. Fiorentina has a record of scoring 1 goal on average at home against stronger opponents, while conceding the same amount. Atalanta, meanwhile, averages 1.43 goals scored away against weaker opponents, with 0.86 goals conceded.
The model suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection with an 80.2% probability of hitting, and an Over 21.5 fouls selection with a 75.7% probability of hitting. Fiorentina has a 27% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 42% chance of losing. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals (80.2%), Over 21.5 fouls (75.7%), and an Away win (42%), with no other selections mentioned.
In a stunning turn of events, Atalanta secured a 1-1 draw against Fiorentina, extending their run of consecutive draws to two. The actual result was a draw, contrary to the expected outcome of a win for either side. The pre-match favourite, Fiorentina, failed to come through, with Atalanta's away win being the model's selection, albeit incorrectly. The model's call was wrong, as Atalanta's win was not predicted. The model's selection of Atalanta's win was given a 42% probability. The suggested picks of Under 3.5 goals and Over 21.5 fouls both hit, with probabilities of 80.2% and 75.7%, respectively.
Fiorentina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.38 | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.42 | 1.08 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
Atalanta| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.20 | 1.56 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 2.60 | 0.33 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.25 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.56 | 0.88 | 1.67 | 0.89 | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Atalanta goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 12% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 14% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
FiorentinaAtalantaFiorentina| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 28.3 | 28.6 | 27.9 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 9.3 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 28.2 | 29.8 | 26.8 |
| vs Similar (20) | 8.6 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 27.5 | 27.7 | 27.2 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 |
| % over line | 44% | 52% | 36% | 74% | 76% | 72% | 90% | 88% | 92% |
| % under line | 56% | 48% | 64% | 26% | 24% | 28% | 10% | 12% | 8% |
Atalanta| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 10.7 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 16.7 | 20.0 | 14.2 |
| vs Similar (14) | 8.3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 22.8 | 21.7 | 23.9 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 22.2 | 22.5 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 42% | 42% | 42% | 44% | 35% | 54% | 50% | 54% | 46% |
| % under line | 58% | 58% | 58% | 56% | 65% | 46% | 50% | 46% | 54% |
Fiorentina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Atalanta| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.89 | 0.11 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 80.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 30/03/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/09/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 02/06/24 | A | 2-3 | |
| 17/09/23 | H | 3-2 | |
| 17/04/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/10/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/02/22 | H | 1-0 |
Fiorentina| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
Atalanta| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Inter | 38 | 87 | 71% | 2.3 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 3.3 | 84% | 55% | 37% | 9.2 | 55% | 3.5 | 38% | 24.2 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 2 |  Napoli | 38 | 76 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 8.2 | 26% | 3.5 | 42% | 23.4 | 61% | 458 | 214 | 90 | 153 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 61% | 1.9 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 2.4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 8.6 | 34% | 4.1 | 66% | 27.8 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 4 |  Como | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 24% | 7.7 | 24% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.9 | 79% | 397 | 236 | 79 | 81 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 2.3 | 66% | 45% | 18% | 8.6 | 42% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 6 |  Juventus | 38 | 69 | 50% | 1.8 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 2.5 | 74% | 39% | 24% | 9.2 | 37% | 3.7 | 59% | 22.3 | 61% | 480 | 210 | 124 | 146 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 58% |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.4 | 47% | 22.1 | 53% | 452 | 163 | 141 | 148 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bologna | 38 | 56 | 42% | 1.5 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 26% | 8.7 | 34% | 4.1 | 51% | 27.8 | 89% | 279 | 136 | 40 | 103 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 9 |  Lazio | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 2.1 | 66% | 32% | 16% | 7.9 | 29% | 4.9 | 76% | 25.1 | 68% | 236 | 78 | 69 | 88 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 10 |  Udinese | 38 | 50 | 37% | 1.3 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 2.4 | 68% | 45% | 21% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.7 | 53% | 25.1 | 79% | 180 | 41 | 64 | 76 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 2.5 | 74% | 55% | 21% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 24.9 | 68% | 212 | 78 | 57 | 77 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Parma | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 1.9 | 58% | 29% | 16% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.9 | 61% | 24.3 | 79% | 149 | 36 | 47 | 66 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 |  Torino | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 2.8 | 74% | 63% | 29% | 8.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 44% | 24.5 | 68% | 124 | 40 | 54 | 31 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 14 |  Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 2.4 | 76% | 50% | 18% | 8.9 | 37% | 4.1 | 58% | 28.6 | 89% | 196 | 62 | 37 | 97 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 24% | 1.1 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 2.4 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.8 | 78% | 28.1 | 92% | 203 | 55 | 64 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 16 |  Genoa | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 76% | 53% | 16% | 8.6 | 37% | 4.5 | 76% | 27.4 | 87% | 174 | 70 | 30 | 74 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 |  Lecce | 38 | 38 | 26% | 1.0 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 9.6 | 58% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.7 | 74% | 118 | 66 | 16 | 36 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 46% | 26.4 | 84% | 76 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 38 | 21 | 8% | 0.6 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 2.3 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.0 | 42% | 4.1 | 54% | 25.3 | 74% | 65 | 18 | 18 | 29 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 20 |  Pisa | 38 | 18 | 5% | 0.5 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 2.6 | 66% | 53% | 32% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.8 | 53% | 24.7 | 79% | 104 | 40 | 42 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 40% |