This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.43
1.67
1.07
0.87
1.80
vs Stronger (12)
1.08
1.50
1.38
0.88
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.31
2.20
1.20
0.88
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.60
1.50
1.50
1.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.7%
2-0
12.7%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
5.3%
0-1
5.3%
Fiorentina goals ↓
Genoa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
5.3%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
4.0%
1.0%
0.2%
2
13%
9.3%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
7.2%
5.3%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = Genoa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.39
AS Roma
2.29
Napoli
2.26
Atalanta
1.89
Lazio
1.84
AC Milan
1.66
Inter
1.63
Fiorentina
1.58
Torino
1.39
Sampdoria
1.26
Cagliari
1.24
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Chievo
1.13
Bologna
1.08
Genoa
0.95
Crotone
0.89
Empoli
0.84
Palermo
0.68
Pescara
0.47
Fiorentina is 0.63 points better than Genoa in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Napoli
2.47
AS Roma
2.37
Juventus
2.03
Lazio
1.95
Inter
1.89
Torino
1.87
Fiorentina
1.66
Atalanta
1.63
Sassuolo
1.53
AC Milan
1.50
Cagliari
1.45
Sampdoria
1.29
Udinese
1.24
Chievo
1.13
Bologna
1.05
Genoa
1.00
Pescara
0.97
Crotone
0.89
Palermo
0.87
Empoli
0.76
Fiorentina is 0.66 goals better than Genoa in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Juventus
0.71
AS Roma
1.00
Napoli
1.03
Atalanta
1.08
AC Milan
1.18
Inter
1.29
Lazio
1.34
Sampdoria
1.45
Udinese
1.47
Fiorentina
1.50
Bologna
1.53
Crotone
1.53
Chievo
1.61
Empoli
1.61
Sassuolo
1.66
Genoa
1.68
Torino
1.74
Cagliari
2.00
Palermo
2.03
Pescara
2.13
Fiorentina is 0.18 goals better than Genoa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 5.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.2 · Against 16.8 · Total 34.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genoa
For 6.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 12.5 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.2
9.0
5.3
5.1
5.5
30.6
29.8
31.4
vs Stronger (8)
7.4
8.4
5.7
6.5
6.2
7.0
30.8
27.8
35.7
vs Similar (21)
10.1
10.2
10.1
5.0
5.3
4.8
29.7
30.1
29.4
vs Weaker (21)
9.9
11.1
8.6
5.1
4.4
6.0
31.4
30.5
32.4
% over line
46%
52%
40%
80%
72%
88%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
20%
28%
12%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
5.0
5.3
4.7
30.3
29.7
30.9
vs Stronger (20)
9.8
10.7
8.6
4.8
5.3
4.1
28.4
27.9
29.1
vs Similar (23)
10.2
9.5
11.0
5.3
5.6
5.0
31.9
31.6
32.3
vs Weaker (7)
10.9
11.3
10.5
4.9
4.7
5.0
30.1
29.0
31.0
% over line
58%
58%
58%
82%
92%
71%
92%
96%
88%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
18%
8%
29%
8%
4%
12%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Inter
11.9
Sassuolo
11.8
Crotone
11.6
AS Roma
11.4
AC Milan
11.1
Cagliari
10.9
Bologna
10.8
Sampdoria
10.8
Pescara
10.7
Palermo
10.5
Lazio
10.5
Torino
10.4
Chievo
10.3
Atalanta
10.2
Napoli
10.2
Genoa
10.1
Udinese
9.9
Empoli
9.7
Fiorentina
9.6
Juventus
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Empoli
5.7
Cagliari
5.5
Atalanta
5.4
Sampdoria
5.3
AC Milan
5.3
Fiorentina
5.3
Chievo
5.2
Inter
5.1
Genoa
5.0
Juventus
5.0
Palermo
5.0
Lazio
4.9
Udinese
4.9
Torino
4.8
Sassuolo
4.8
AS Roma
4.7
Pescara
4.7
Napoli
4.4
Bologna
4.4
Crotone
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Atalanta
32.8
Palermo
32.0
Empoli
31.0
Fiorentina
30.6
Juventus
30.5
Sassuolo
30.5
Chievo
30.5
Genoa
30.3
AC Milan
30.1
Torino
30.1
Sampdoria
29.8
Crotone
29.6
Pescara
29.0
Udinese
28.1
Inter
27.9
Lazio
27.8
Cagliari
27.7
Bologna
27.6
AS Roma
27.0
Napoli
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.7%
Under 9.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.1%
Under 3.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.1%
Under 21.5
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.27
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.67
0.60
0.00
1.43
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.31
0.71
0.29
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.67
0.27
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.60
0.40
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.20
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.31
0.29
0.43
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
1.00
0.80
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.00
0.62
0.62
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
1.60
0.80
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Genoa · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lorenzo Colombo33%
Alessandro Marcandalli33%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Vitinha0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leo Østigård67%
Morten Frendrup0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morten Frendrup33%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy33%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitinha67%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
CAG (31)
€134m
PAL (27)
€54m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
PES (27)
€8m
Fiorentina's squad is €148m more valuable than Genoa's (€330m vs €182m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
EMP (9)
€11m
PES (10)
€4m
Fiorentina's attack is €71m more valuable than Genoa's (€125m vs €54m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
PAL (7)
€12m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
PES (6)
€1m
Fiorentina's midfield is €63m more valuable than Genoa's (€107m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
Fiorentina's defence is €14m more valuable than Genoa's (€98m vs €84m).
Italy: Serie A 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
AS Roma
Napoli
Atalanta
Lazio
AC Milan
Inter
Torino
Sampdoria
Cagliari
Sassuolo
Udinese
Bologna
Empoli
Palermo
Pescara