This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.87
2.20
0.87
1.40
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.10
1.80
1.00
1.40
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.90
0.75
2.40
0.80
1.40
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.77-9.6%
Under 2.5
55.8%
@ 2.06+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
11.9%
0-2
10.0%
0-0 ✓
9.9%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.0%
Fiorentina goals ↓
Juventus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
12%
10.0%
5.0%
1.9%
1
6.8%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
3.7%
5.7%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = Juventus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.18
Inter
2.16
Atalanta
2.05
Lazio
2.05
AS Roma
1.84
AC Milan
1.74
Napoli
1.63
Sassuolo
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.29
Fiorentina
1.29
Parma
1.29
Bologna
1.24
Cagliari
1.18
Udinese
1.18
Sampdoria
1.11
Torino
1.05
Genoa
1.03
Lecce
0.92
Brescia
0.66
Spal
0.53
Fiorentina is 0.89 points worse than Juventus in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.58
Inter
2.13
Lazio
2.08
AS Roma
2.03
Juventus
2.00
Sassuolo
1.82
AC Milan
1.66
Napoli
1.61
Parma
1.47
Bologna
1.37
Lecce
1.37
Cagliari
1.37
Fiorentina
1.34
Sampdoria
1.26
Hellas Verona
1.24
Genoa
1.24
Torino
1.21
Udinese
0.97
Brescia
0.92
Spal
0.71
Fiorentina is 0.66 goals worse than Juventus in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter
0.95
Lazio
1.11
Juventus
1.13
AC Milan
1.21
Atalanta
1.26
Fiorentina
1.26
Napoli
1.32
AS Roma
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.34
Udinese
1.34
Cagliari
1.47
Parma
1.50
Sassuolo
1.66
Sampdoria
1.71
Bologna
1.71
Torino
1.79
Genoa
1.92
Spal
2.03
Brescia
2.08
Lecce
2.24
Fiorentina is 0.13 goals worse than Juventus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 6.9 · Against 5.8 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juventus
For 5.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.2 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.0
11.3
5.5
5.6
5.5
28.0
27.4
28.7
vs Stronger (8)
11.4
10.4
13.0
5.8
7.2
3.3
28.4
28.0
29.0
vs Similar (26)
11.5
12.2
10.8
5.7
5.0
6.3
27.7
26.7
28.5
vs Weaker (16)
10.5
9.5
11.5
5.2
5.4
5.0
28.5
28.1
28.9
% over line
72%
68%
76%
78%
76%
80%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
28%
32%
24%
22%
24%
20%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.9
10.6
4.6
4.1
5.0
24.5
24.6
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
10.5
11.0
10.0
5.7
4.9
6.6
25.7
27.4
23.7
vs Weaker (35)
10.9
10.9
10.8
4.1
3.7
4.4
24.1
23.3
24.8
% over line
58%
56%
60%
74%
68%
80%
76%
72%
80%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
26%
32%
20%
24%
28%
20%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Inter
12.1
AS Roma
11.3
Udinese
11.2
Fiorentina
11.1
AC Milan
11.0
Napoli
11.0
Atalanta
10.9
Sassuolo
10.8
Juventus
10.8
Lazio
10.8
Torino
10.6
Spal
10.5
Cagliari
10.4
Parma
10.3
Sampdoria
10.2
Hellas Verona
10.1
Brescia
10.1
Bologna
10.1
Lecce
9.9
Genoa
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spal
5.8
Fiorentina
5.5
Torino
5.5
Hellas Verona
5.4
Bologna
5.1
Lazio
5.0
Sassuolo
5.0
Cagliari
5.0
Genoa
5.0
Inter
4.9
Sampdoria
4.9
Brescia
4.8
Parma
4.7
Lecce
4.7
Udinese
4.6
Napoli
4.6
Juventus
4.6
AC Milan
4.6
Atalanta
4.4
AS Roma
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Brescia
32.2
Torino
30.9
Hellas Verona
29.9
Spal
28.4
Fiorentina
28.0
Lecce
27.9
Sassuolo
27.6
Genoa
27.5
Cagliari
27.4
Bologna
26.9
Parma
25.7
Sampdoria
25.2
Atalanta
25.1
Udinese
25.1
Juventus
24.5
AC Milan
24.4
Inter
24.0
Lazio
23.6
AS Roma
22.9
Napoli
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
66.0%
Under 9.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.0%
Under 3.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.9%
Under 21.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.53
0.29
0.71
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.27
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.20
1.20
0.40
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.14
0.14
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.80
1.00
0.75
1.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juventus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.70
1.20
0.60
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.55
1.20
0.40
0.90
0.70
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Juventus · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dušan Vlahović35%
Jérémie Boga24%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jonathan David20%
Weston McKennie19%
Federico Gatti14%
Filip Kostić13%
Juan Cabal11%
Bremer10%
Francisco Conceição10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Andrea Cambiaso6%
Loïs Openda6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Pierre Kalulu4%
Fabio Miretti3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Locatelli23%
Juan Cabal21%
Bremer16%
Lloyd Kelly15%
Weston McKennie12%
Teun Koopmeiners11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Francisco Conceição10%
Kenan Yıldız9%
João Mário8%
Federico Gatti7%
Fabio Miretti6%
Pierre Kalulu6%
Jérémie Boga6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Khéphren Thuram4%
Filip Kostić4%
Edon Zhegrova4%
Michele Di Gregorio3%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jonathan David0%
Dušan Vlahović0%
Emil Holm0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kenan Yıldız17%
Francisco Conceição12%
Jonathan David11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Weston McKennie10%
Pierre Kalulu10%
Fabio Miretti10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Dušan Vlahović9%
João Mário8%
Bremer6%
Filip Kostić4%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Manuel Locatelli4%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Federico Gatti0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dušan Vlahović26%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jérémie Boga18%
Francisco Conceição14%
Khéphren Thuram11%
Jonathan David11%
Weston McKennie8%
Federico Gatti7%
Bremer6%
Fabio Miretti6%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Loïs Openda3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Andrea Cambiaso2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Filip Kostić0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Pierre Kalulu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
LEC (31)
€72m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
Fiorentina's squad is €239m less valuable than Juventus's (€330m vs €569m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
LEC (9)
€20m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
Fiorentina's attack is €115m less valuable than Juventus's (€125m vs €240m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
LEC (8)
€16m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
Fiorentina's midfield is €33m less valuable than Juventus's (€107m vs €140m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
Fiorentina's defence is €91m less valuable than Juventus's (€98m vs €189m).
Italy: Serie A 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter
Atalanta
Lazio
AS Roma
AC Milan
Napoli
Sassuolo
Parma
Hellas Verona
Bologna
Cagliari
Udinese
Sampdoria
Torino
Genoa
Lecce
Brescia
Spal