This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.17
2.25
1.19
1.86
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.18
1.29
1.43
2.00
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
2.65
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
0-0
5.8%
0-2
5.6%
Fiorentina goals ↓
Lazio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
6.2%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.0%
12%
8.5%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.3%
6.4%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.7%
4.2%
3.2%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = Lazio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.39
AS Roma
2.29
Napoli
2.26
Atalanta
1.89
Lazio
1.84
AC Milan
1.66
Inter
1.63
Fiorentina
1.58
Torino
1.39
Sampdoria
1.26
Cagliari
1.24
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Chievo
1.13
Bologna
1.08
Genoa
0.95
Crotone
0.89
Empoli
0.84
Palermo
0.68
Pescara
0.47
Fiorentina is 0.26 points worse than Lazio in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Napoli
2.47
AS Roma
2.37
Juventus
2.03
Lazio
1.95
Inter
1.89
Torino
1.87
Fiorentina
1.66
Atalanta
1.63
Sassuolo
1.53
AC Milan
1.50
Cagliari
1.45
Sampdoria
1.29
Udinese
1.24
Chievo
1.13
Bologna
1.05
Genoa
1.00
Pescara
0.97
Crotone
0.89
Palermo
0.87
Empoli
0.76
Fiorentina is 0.29 goals worse than Lazio in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Juventus
0.71
AS Roma
1.00
Napoli
1.03
Atalanta
1.08
AC Milan
1.18
Inter
1.29
Lazio
1.34
Sampdoria
1.45
Udinese
1.47
Fiorentina
1.50
Bologna
1.53
Crotone
1.53
Chievo
1.61
Empoli
1.61
Sassuolo
1.66
Genoa
1.68
Torino
1.74
Cagliari
2.00
Palermo
2.03
Pescara
2.13
Fiorentina is 0.16 goals worse than Lazio in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 7.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
For 6.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.9
9.6
5.1
4.9
5.3
29.0
28.2
29.7
vs Stronger (8)
9.0
9.8
6.5
6.0
5.8
6.5
28.8
26.7
35.0
vs Similar (23)
10.7
11.2
10.4
4.7
4.1
5.1
27.6
26.2
28.5
vs Weaker (19)
10.2
11.3
9.2
5.2
5.1
5.3
30.8
31.2
30.4
% over line
58%
67%
50%
78%
71%
85%
86%
83%
88%
% under line
42%
33%
50%
22%
29%
15%
14%
17%
12%
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
4.6
4.5
4.6
26.0
25.8
26.2
vs Stronger (5)
7.2
6.0
8.0
3.8
4.5
3.3
24.6
24.5
24.7
vs Similar (18)
11.1
11.5
10.4
4.8
5.3
4.0
27.9
29.1
26.0
vs Weaker (27)
10.7
10.9
10.5
4.6
3.8
5.2
25.0
23.0
26.6
% over line
62%
64%
60%
70%
72%
68%
72%
64%
80%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
30%
28%
32%
28%
36%
20%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sassuolo
12.5
Inter
12.1
AS Roma
12.0
AC Milan
11.9
Sampdoria
11.4
Crotone
10.8
Torino
10.7
Bologna
10.7
Pescara
10.6
Atalanta
10.6
Napoli
10.6
Palermo
10.5
Lazio
10.5
Chievo
10.4
Cagliari
10.3
Fiorentina
10.2
Udinese
10.2
Genoa
10.0
Empoli
9.7
Juventus
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AC Milan
5.4
Empoli
5.3
Atalanta
5.2
Cagliari
5.2
Fiorentina
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Genoa
5.0
Sassuolo
4.9
Inter
4.8
Palermo
4.7
Pescara
4.6
Chievo
4.6
Udinese
4.6
Lazio
4.6
Torino
4.6
Juventus
4.5
Bologna
4.5
Napoli
4.3
AS Roma
4.3
Crotone
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Atalanta
31.6
Empoli
30.7
Palermo
30.4
Chievo
30.0
Torino
29.6
Pescara
29.4
AC Milan
29.1
Fiorentina
29.0
Juventus
29.0
Sassuolo
28.9
Genoa
28.7
Crotone
28.6
Cagliari
28.2
Sampdoria
28.1
Inter
28.1
Udinese
27.9
Bologna
27.3
Lazio
26.0
AS Roma
25.9
Napoli
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.1%
Under 9.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.9%
Under 3.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.0%
Under 21.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.71
0.36
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
0.67
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.50
0.83
0.00
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
0.42
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.19
0.25
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.29
1.67
0.11
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.21
1.00
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
2.25
1.50
2.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.67
1.00
1.20
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.06
0.94
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.73
0.71
1.00
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.71
1.33
0.89
1.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Lazio · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davide Frattesi67%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matteo Cancellieri67%
Boulaye Dia33%
Nicolò Rovella33%
Mattia Zaccagni33%
Oliver Provstgaard33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Boulaye Dia33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenneth Taylor33%
Matteo Cancellieri33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
CAG (31)
€134m
PAL (27)
€54m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
PES (27)
€8m
Fiorentina's squad is €90m more valuable than Lazio's (€330m vs €240m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
EMP (9)
€11m
PES (10)
€4m
Fiorentina's attack is €65m more valuable than Lazio's (€125m vs €60m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
PAL (7)
€12m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
PES (6)
€1m
Fiorentina's midfield is €20m more valuable than Lazio's (€107m vs €86m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
Fiorentina's defence is €5m more valuable than Lazio's (€98m vs €93m).
Italy: Serie A 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
AS Roma
Napoli
Atalanta
AC Milan
Inter
Torino
Sampdoria
Cagliari
Sassuolo
Udinese
Bologna
Genoa
Empoli
Palermo
Pescara