Fiorentina are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 45% chance of victory, a 29% draw probability and a 25% chance of Torino taking the win. The model’s pick is a home win, and the match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Fiorentina’s home form shows an average of 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, while Torino’s away numbers are 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded, indicating a defensive edge for the visitors. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (96.8% with a 3% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6% with a 7% edge). Fiorentina’s recent form, after a 0-4 loss to AS Roma, and Torino’s 1-2 defeat to AC Milan, add extra context to the predicted outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fiorentina win
46.0%
Avg Implied 49.4% · @ 1.92
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.97
Dafabet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.92
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.29
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
1xBet
3.35
Bet365
3.30
Torino win
25.2%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.33
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.76
Pinnacle
4.76
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fiorentina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.87
1.00
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.55
1.00
1.10
1.10
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
0.50
0.75
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.70
1.53
1.67
0.87
1.73
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
1.50
1.83
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.65
1.56
1.56
0.91
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.2%
@ 1.35+2.8%
Under 1.5
27.8%
@ 3.08-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.30
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.13+0.6%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.72-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.19
SBO
2.16
Unibet
2.16
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.9%
@ 3.86-0.4%
Under 3.5
76.1%
@ 1.24+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Both teams to score
Yes
50.5%
@ 1.90+1.4%
No
49.5%
@ 1.83-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.92
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
No
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.01+6.2%
1-0
10.9%@ 6.10+3.5%
0-0
9.6%@ 8.30+4.1%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.16+3.5%
2-0
8.9%@ 8.21+3.4%
0-1
7.3%@ 10.05+2.8%
1-2
6.4%@ 13.04+2.9%
2-2
4.7%@ 14.64+1.6%
Fiorentina goals ↓
Torino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.3%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.4%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fiorentina goals (down), columns = Torino goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Fiorentina is 0.08 points worse than Torino in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Fiorentina is 0.08 goals worse than Torino in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Fiorentina is 0.34 goals better than Torino in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Fiorentina is 6.8 percentage points better than Torino in terms of average possession (51% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fiorentina
For 4.5 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torino
For 3.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.5
8.2
4.7
5.1
4.3
28.3
29.2
27.4
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
28.8
28.3
29.3
vs Similar (31)
8.3
9.4
7.1
5.2
5.6
4.7
27.5
28.2
26.8
vs Weaker (13)
9.7
9.4
10.0
4.0
4.3
3.7
29.9
31.7
27.8
% over line
44%
54%
33%
74%
77%
71%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
56%
46%
67%
26%
23%
29%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.8
8.1
3.2
3.1
3.4
24.2
23.6
24.8
vs Stronger (19)
8.8
8.2
9.4
3.1
2.7
3.6
22.0
20.5
23.7
vs Similar (31)
8.2
9.1
7.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
25.5
25.5
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
46%
33%
42%
38%
46%
64%
65%
62%
% under line
60%
54%
67%
58%
62%
54%
36%
35%
38%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.9%
@ 2.26-6.1%
Under 9.5
65.1%
@ 1.57+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.29
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.0%
@ 1.42-9.0%
Under 3.5
43.0%
@ 2.75+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Betano
2.72
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.4%
Under 21.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fiorentina or Draw
76.7%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.21
Edge
-1.3%
46%
29%
25%
covers Fiorentina + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Fiorentina or Torino
70.7%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.3%
46%
29%
25%
covers Fiorentina + Torino
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Draw or Torino
52.7%
Avg Implied 50.0% · @ 1.88
Edge
+2.6%
46%
29%
25%
covers Draw + Torino
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.90
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
@ 1.21-0.9%
Under
23.9%
@ 4.03+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Fiorentina over/under 1.5
Over
41.9%
@ 2.06-3.7%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.72+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Unibet
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Fiorentina over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
@ 4.40-3.8%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.18+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Fiorentina over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
@ 9.80-3.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Torino over/under 0.5
Over
60.7%
@ 1.54+0.5%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.33-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.44
Betfair
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Torino over/under 1.5
Over
24.0%
@ 3.75-1.0%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.25+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.02
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Torino over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
@ 11.10-1.6%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Torino over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
@ 23.75-2.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fiorentina, so a minus line means Fiorentina give that many goals of a start and Torino receive them. At -1, Fiorentina must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fiorentina win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fiorentina)
Fiorentina -2
9.2%
@ 7.80-2.3%
Draw -2
14.7%
@ 5.44-1.8%
Torino +2
76.1%
@ 1.25+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Fiorentina)
Fiorentina -1
23.9%
@ 3.51-1.8%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 3.50-2.3%
Torino +1
52.7%
@ 1.86+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Draw
Marathonbet
3.72
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Handicap +1 (Fiorentina)
Fiorentina +1
76.7%
@ 1.21+3.2%
Draw +1
14.8%
@ 5.24-2.1%
Torino -1
8.5%
@ 9.21-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
3.78
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Handicap +2 (Fiorentina)
Fiorentina +2
91.5%
@ 1.04+1.2%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 14.00-0.5%
Torino -2
2.2%
@ 31.50-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.60
0.30
0.50
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.70
0.67
0.44
0.36
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.46+2.7%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 2.62-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
William Hil
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.4%
@ 3.11-0.7%
Under 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.34+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Betano
3.20
Marathonbet
3.16
Under
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.8%
@ 8.16-2.6%
Under 2.5
91.2%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Unibet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.9%
@ 1.90-2.1%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.83+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Unibet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
@ 5.47-5.9%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.11+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 11.25-6.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Torino over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.5%
@ 2.75+3.7%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.41-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Marathonbet
2.80
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Torino over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 10.00-2.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Torino over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.60
0.47
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.95
0.70
0.60
0.80
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.93
1.13
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.10
1.00
1.17
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.95
0.89
1.11
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.3%
@ 1.27+1.9%
Under 0.5
24.7%
@ 3.50-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.64
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.8%
@ 2.27-1.3%
Under 1.5
60.2%
@ 1.59+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 5.04-4.1%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.14+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.0%
@ 1.60-5.3%
Under
47.0%
@ 2.24+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.6%
@ 3.87-5.4%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.22+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
@ 8.75-6.9%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.05+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Torino over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.2%
@ 2.22+1.3%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.60-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Torino over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.2%
@ 7.70-0.8%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.05+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.10
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Torino over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+3.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+1.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+1.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Unibet
1.05
+2.6%
Under 4.5
90.9%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+2.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
+5.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
+4.1%
Under 11.5 corners
84.7%
1.17
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+6.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+3.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.22
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
-
+5.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.40
-
-
-
+13.1%
Home or Draw
76.7%
1.21
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
-1.3%
Home +1 handicap
76.7%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+3.2%
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
1.18
Betano
1.18
-
-
-
-
-2.6%
Under 10.5 corners
76.1%
1.32
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.28
+6.3%
Away +2 handicap
76.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.20
+4.1%
Under 3.5
76.1%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+0.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-0.9%
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+1.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+1.9%
Over 1.5
72.2%
1.35
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+2.8%
Home or Away
70.7%
1.31
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-1.3%
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.34
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
+0.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fiorentina
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Torino
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giovanni Simeone33%
Pietro Comuzzo33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Gvidas Gineitis0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gvidas Gineitis33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Giovanni Simeone0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gvidas Gineitis33%
Alessio Cacciamani33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Giovanni Simeone0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giovanni Simeone33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Gvidas Gineitis0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Fiorentina's squad is €186m more valuable than Torino's (€330m vs €144m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Fiorentina's attack is €82m more valuable than Torino's (€125m vs €43m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Fiorentina's midfield is €61m more valuable than Torino's (€107m vs €46m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Fiorentina's defence is €44m more valuable than Torino's (€98m vs €54m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia