FSV Mainz 05 enter the match on a positive streak, having won their last game 2-0 against 1. FC Heidenheim, and are favoured to win with a 46% chance, compared with 28% for a draw and 26% for a SC Paderborn 07 victory. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Mainz’s home form shows they score 1.46 goals and concede 0.85 against similar opposition, while Paderborn’s away form is 1.40 scored and 1.13 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2% with a 3% edge, Under 6.5 at 99.0% with a 5% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.6% with a 3% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4% with a 4% edge, Under 5.5 at 96.8% with a 7% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.4% with a 5% edge, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.3% with a 9% edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win, fell short as the game finished 0-0, a draw that surprised many. The model’s call was wrong, with the home side’s 47% chance of victory eclipsed by the 28% draw probability. The match’s low scoring was in line with the most likely total of two goals, yet the scoreline stayed at zero. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (94.3%). The result confirmed the model’s low-scoring expectations, while the favourite’s failure underscored the unpredictability of the Bundesliga.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.58
Edge
-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.67
10Bet
1.66
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.24
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.52
Dafabet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.43
Superbet
4.40
SC Paderborn 07 win✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.32
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.84
Marathonbet
5.80
Pinnacle
5.77
Betano
5.60
Dafabet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.33
1.57
1.07
1.12
1.56
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.40
3.00
4.00
1.25
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.12
1.46
0.85
1.08
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.40
2.13
1.67
1.40
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.76
1.41
2.14
1.71
1.40
1.13
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.0%
@ 1.17-6.3%
Under 1.5
26.0%
@ 4.80+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Under
BetVictor
5.40
Superbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
@ 1.59-12.1%
Under 2.5
52.4%
@ 2.36+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
SBO
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Betfair
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.9%
@ 2.42-13.0%
Under 3.5
74.1%
@ 1.55+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.63
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
Under
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
888Sport
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
@ 1.63-5.2%
No
47.8%
@ 2.19+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
No
Betfair
2.30
888Sport
2.25
William Hil
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 7.70+7.4%
1-0
10.3%@ 8.21+4.7%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.56+3.1%
0-0 ✓
8.8%@ 14.50+5.6%
2-0
8.8%@ 8.39+3.3%
0-1
6.8%@ 15.81+3.9%
1-2
6.4%@ 14.74+3.3%
2-2
4.9%@ 13.13+1.4%
FSV Mainz 05 goals ↓
SC Paderborn 07 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
6.8%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.3%
4.9%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.5%
4.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FSV Mainz 05 goals (down), columns = SC Paderborn 07 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.18 points better than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
FSV Mainz 05 is 0.79 goals better than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
FSV Mainz 05 is 1.06 goals worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
FSV Mainz 05 is 8.0 percentage points worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FSV Mainz 05
For 5.3 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Paderborn 07
For 5.4 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FSV Mainz 05
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.1
4.4
4.1
4.6
21.9
23.0
20.8
vs Stronger (10)
8.5
8.8
8.2
4.4
4.8
4.0
23.1
26.4
19.8
vs Similar (40)
9.6
9.8
9.3
4.3
3.9
4.8
21.6
22.2
21.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
52%
40%
60%
56%
64%
50%
56%
44%
% under line
54%
48%
60%
40%
44%
36%
50%
44%
56%
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
11.0
8.8
4.5
4.1
5.0
24.4
23.2
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.9
8.4
4.6
4.0
5.2
23.9
23.2
24.6
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
11.5
12.0
3.8
4.5
3.3
29.2
23.5
33.0
% over line
58%
72%
44%
72%
60%
84%
68%
56%
80%
% under line
42%
28%
56%
28%
40%
16%
32%
44%
20%
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.3
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
9.9
Hamburger SV
9.9
FC Augsburg
9.8
Union Berlin
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
FC Schalke 04
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
SC Freiburg
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.4
SV Elversberg
24.1
Hamburger SV
23.8
FC Schalke 04
23.8
SC Freiburg
22.7
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
21.9
FC Augsburg
21.8
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.5
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.4%
@ 1.85-7.4%
Under 9.5
56.6%
@ 1.90+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.1%
@ 1.87+11.2%
Under 3.5
38.9%
@ 1.85-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.5%
@ 1.93-0.1%
Under 21.5
51.5%
@ 1.82+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.66
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw✓ Hit
77.4%
Avg Implied 81.8% · @ 1.15
Edge
-4.4%
47%
28%
25%
covers FSV Mainz 05 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
FSV Mainz 05 or SC Paderborn 07✗ Miss
70.6%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.21
Edge
-7.5%
47%
28%
25%
covers FSV Mainz 05 + SC Paderborn 07
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Draw or SC Paderborn 07✓ Hit
52.0%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.35
Edge
+11.9%
47%
28%
25%
covers Draw + SC Paderborn 07
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.51
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.1%
@ 1.09-9.6%
Under
23.9%
@ 6.52+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Under
Betfair
8.00
888Sport
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.8%
@ 1.53-19.4%
Under
58.2%
@ 2.41+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.4%
@ 2.67-17.6%
Under
82.6%
@ 1.44+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.64
1xBet
2.63
Under
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 5.33-11.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.13+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
59.6%
@ 1.45-4.7%
Under
40.4%
@ 2.60+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
10Bet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.0%
@ 3.23-5.9%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.31+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Marathonbet
3.36
1xBet
3.36
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 8.75-4.3%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
888Sport
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 22.62-2.9%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FSV Mainz 05, so a minus line means FSV Mainz 05 give that many goals of a start and SC Paderborn 07 receive them. At -1, FSV Mainz 05 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FSV Mainz 05 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FSV Mainz 05)Actual: SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05 -2
9.4%
@ 4.64-10.0%
Draw -2
14.9%
@ 4.58-4.7%
SC Paderborn 07 +2
75.7%
@ 1.47+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Handicap -1 (FSV Mainz 05)Actual: SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05 -1
24.3%
@ 2.49-11.9%
Draw -1
23.7%
@ 3.62-1.3%
SC Paderborn 07 +1
52.0%
@ 2.33+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Draw
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
2.51
Superbet
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.28
Bet365
2.20
Handicap +1 (FSV Mainz 05)Actual: FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 +1
77.4%
@ 1.16-0.2%
Draw +1
14.6%
@ 6.41+0.6%
SC Paderborn 07 -1
8.1%
@ 10.67-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.50
Handicap +2 (FSV Mainz 05)Actual: FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 +2
91.9%
@ 1.03+0.9%
Draw +2
6.0%
@ 15.00-0.3%
SC Paderborn 07 -2
2.1%
@ 35.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FSV Mainz 05
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.21
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.40
0.62
0.23
0.75
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.93
1.00
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.76
1.00
1.00
0.53
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.28+2.9%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 3.47-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.75
William Hil
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 2.32-4.0%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.57+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Unibet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
Marathonbet
2.34
Under
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 5.34+0.1%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.14-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Under
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
68.0%
@ 1.57+8.8%
Under
32.0%
@ 2.29-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.20
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.9%
@ 3.71+5.9%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.23-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Under
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.6%
@ 8.55+1.7%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.04-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.60
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 2.50-7.5%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.48+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 8.96-4.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 24.50-3.5%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FSV Mainz 05
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.79
0.86
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.00
4.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.72
0.85
0.62
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.20
0.67
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.66
1.14
0.71
0.87
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FSV Mainz 05) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.17-0.9%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 4.77+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Superbet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Betano
4.80
888Sport
4.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.82-0.4%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.94+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
888Sport
1.95
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.4%
@ 3.53-1.1%
Under 2.5
74.6%
@ 1.27+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
William Hil
3.60
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
73.6%
@ 1.38+6.0%
Under
26.4%
@ 2.87-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Under
Betano
2.90
Superbet
2.87
1xBet
2.85
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.75+2.1%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.40-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Superbet
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.35
FSV Mainz 05 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 6.37+0.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.08-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.06-8.3%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.69+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.65
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 6.47-7.2%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.08+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 16.38-4.4%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.2%
1.20
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
+12.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
1.44
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
+17.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.4%
1.14
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.4%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
-
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
1.31
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+8.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
77.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.4%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.0%
1.31
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-9.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.9%
1.28
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Unibet
1.29
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
75.7%
1.47
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Unibet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
+14.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.8%
1.22
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
-
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.1%
1.55
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
888Sport
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
+13.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
-6.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.6%
1.38
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
-
-
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-7.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.48
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
+7.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FSV Mainz 05 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nadiem Amiri46%
Sheraldo Becker21%
Phillip Tietz17%
Jae-sung Lee15%
Stefan Bell13%
Silas11%
Stefan Posch10%
Benedict Hollerbach10%
Paul Nebel9%
Armindo Sieb9%
Silvan Widmer8%
Nelson Weiper6%
Sota Kawasaki6%
Dominik Kohr5%
Danny da Costa4%
Kacper Potulski4%
Kaishu Sano4%
Phillipp Mwene3%
Arnaud Nordin0%
Anthony Caci0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
William Bøving0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Nikolas Veratschnig0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dominik Kohr36%
Stefan Posch30%
Stefan Bell26%
Nadiem Amiri26%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen24%
Anthony Caci23%
Robin Zentner22%
Nikolas Veratschnig21%
Ben Justus Bobzien20%
Sheraldo Becker14%
Phillip Tietz13%
Kacper Potulski13%
Silvan Widmer12%
Silas11%
Daniel Batz11%
Sota Kawasaki11%
Jae-sung Lee10%
Phillipp Mwene10%
Paul Nebel9%
Armindo Sieb9%
Danny da Costa7%
Lennard Maloney6%
William Bøving6%
Arnaud Nordin5%
Nelson Weiper3%
Kaishu Sano2%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Benedict Hollerbach0%
Lasse Riess0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sheraldo Becker21%
Benedict Hollerbach14%
Paul Nebel11%
Jae-sung Lee10%
Danny da Costa9%
Phillip Tietz9%
Nadiem Amiri9%
Anthony Caci8%
Kaishu Sano6%
Sota Kawasaki6%
William Bøving6%
Phillipp Mwene5%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen5%
Stefan Bell4%
Nikolas Veratschnig3%
Silvan Widmer2%
Stefan Posch0%
Dominik Kohr0%
Silas0%
Arnaud Nordin0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Armindo Sieb0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
Nelson Weiper0%
Kacper Potulski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phillip Tietz39%
Sheraldo Becker21%
Benedict Hollerbach19%
Nadiem Amiri17%
Nelson Weiper9%
Silvan Widmer8%
Armindo Sieb6%
Arnaud Nordin5%
Jae-sung Lee5%
Phillipp Mwene5%
Stefan Posch5%
Andreas Hanche-Olsen5%
Stefan Bell4%
Nikolas Veratschnig3%
Kaishu Sano2%
Dominik Kohr0%
Danny da Costa0%
Silas0%
Anthony Caci0%
Lennard Maloney0%
Maxim Leitsch0%
Robin Zentner0%
Daniel Batz0%
Lasse Riess0%
Sota Kawasaki0%
William Bøving0%
Paul Nebel0%
Fabio Moreno Fell0%
Ben Justus Bobzien0%
Kacper Potulski0%
SC Paderborn 07 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Filip Bilbija39%
Adriano Grimaldi25%
Lucas Copado25%
Marcel Hoffmeier20%
Laurin Curda19%
Stefano Marino19%
Sebastian Klaas17%
Sven Michel13%
Mika Baur11%
Steffen Tigges9%
Kennedy Okpala8%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Raphael Obermair7%
Nick Bätzner6%
Tjark Lasse Scheller6%
Luis Engelns5%
Felix Götze3%
David Kinsombi0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Ruben Müller0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcel Hoffmeier40%
Kennedy Okpala33%
Laurin Curda22%
Mattes Hansen21%
Sven Michel20%
Marco Wörner20%
Santiago Castañeda18%
Raphael Obermair17%
Mika Baur17%
Ruben Müller17%
Filip Bilbija15%
Tjark Lasse Scheller14%
Felix Götze12%
Nick Bätzner12%
Luis Engelns11%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Stefano Marino6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Jonah Sticker4%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Lucas Copado0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphael Obermair30%
Laurin Curda19%
Mika Baur14%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Sebastian Klaas10%
Filip Bilbija9%
Ruben Müller8%
Felix Götze6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Nick Bätzner6%
Sven Michel3%
Stefano Marino3%
Mattes Hansen3%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefano Marino23%
Laurin Curda19%
Steffen Tigges18%
Filip Bilbija15%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Raphael Obermair10%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Sven Michel7%
Mika Baur6%
Nick Bätzner3%
Santiago Castañeda3%
David Kinsombi0%
Felix Götze0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Ruben Müller0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
FSV Mainz 05's squad is €132m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€175m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
FSV Mainz 05's attack is €35m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€49m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
FSV Mainz 05's midfield is €61m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€80m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
FSV Mainz 05's defence is €35m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€47m vs €11m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart