This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.03
1.67
0.93
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.10
1.60
1.00
0.82
1.18
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.89
1.80
0.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.1%
Under 1.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.2%
Under 3.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.2%
1-0
11.9%
0-1
11.8%
2-1
7.0%
1-2 â
6.9%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
Galway United goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
6.8%
7.0%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.3%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Galway United goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Galway United is 0.67 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
Galway United is 0.42 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.44).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
Galway United is 0.14 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.08).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
Galway United is 13.1 percentage points worse than Derry City in terms of average possession (41% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Galway United
For 4.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 3.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.8
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.6 · Total 24.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Galway United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.4
4.8
4.6
5.1
24.2
24.6
23.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
9.5
9.7
9.4
4.8
4.6
5.1
24.2
24.6
23.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
55%
40%
74%
67%
81%
68%
73%
64%
% under line
53%
45%
60%
26%
33%
19%
32%
27%
36%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.5
8.5
5.3
5.0
5.6
24.3
23.5
25.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
8.1
8.1
8.2
5.5
5.2
5.7
24.7
23.7
25.8
vs Weaker (16)
9.4
9.6
9.2
4.9
4.7
5.3
23.3
23.1
23.5
% over line
27%
26%
27%
78%
80%
76%
76%
65%
86%
% under line
73%
74%
73%
22%
20%
24%
24%
35%
14%
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.6
Cork City
10.5
Waterford
10.2
Sligo Rovers
10.2
St Patrick's Athl.
10.0
Drogheda United
9.9
Galway United
9.5
Shamrock Rovers
9.2
Shelbourne
8.8
Derry City
8.5
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.9
Bohemians
5.8
Shelbourne
5.6
Waterford
5.6
Sligo Rovers
5.3
Shamrock Rovers
5.3
St Patrick's Athl.
5.3
Galway United
5.1
Cork City
5.0
Drogheda United
4.7
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cork City
24.9
Derry City
24.4
Galway United
24.2
Waterford
24.2
Bohemians
23.9
Sligo Rovers
23.4
St Patrick's Athl.
22.7
Shamrock Rovers
22.4
Shelbourne
22.3
Drogheda United
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.4%
Under 3.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.4%
Under 21.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Galway United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.57
0.90
0.40
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.44
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Galway United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Galway United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.86
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.73
0.86
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.52
0.70
0.60
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.44
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Galway United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Galway United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Moses Dyer37%
Patrick Hickey13%
Vincent Borden13%
David Hurley12%
Stephen Walsh12%
Dara McGuinness10%
Conor McCormack9%
Jimmy Keohane5%
Edward McCarthy4%
Bobby Burns3%
Killian Brouder3%
Robert Slevin3%
Greg Cunningham0%
Brendan Clarke0%
Regan Donelon0%
Colm Horgan0%
Garry Buckley0%
Cian Byrne0%
Jeannot Esua0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Malcolm Isaiah Shaw0%
Jeremy Sivi0%
Sean Kerrigan0%
Axel Piesold0%
Evan Watts0%
Max Wilson0%
Cillian Tollett0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Max Wilson67%
Greg Cunningham40%
Moses Dyer37%
Aaron Bolger36%
Cian Byrne31%
Malcolm Isaiah Shaw29%
Sean Kerrigan25%
Patrick Hickey23%
Cillian Tollett22%
Garry Buckley21%
Conor McCormack18%
Robert Slevin18%
Vincent Borden17%
Edward McCarthy17%
Bobby Burns16%
David Hurley16%
Stephen Walsh15%
Jimmy Keohane14%
Killian Brouder12%
Regan Donelon9%
Colm Horgan9%
Evan Watts7%
Brendan Clarke5%
Jeannot Esua3%
Dara McGuinness0%
Jeremy Sivi0%
Axel Piesold0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Burns19%
Evan Watts13%
David Hurley12%
Dara McGuinness10%
Jeannot Esua9%
Cian Byrne6%
Stephen Walsh6%
Robert Slevin6%
Greg Cunningham5%
Jimmy Keohane5%
Vincent Borden4%
Patrick Hickey3%
Brendan Clarke0%
Regan Donelon0%
Colm Horgan0%
Garry Buckley0%
Conor McCormack0%
Killian Brouder0%
Moses Dyer0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Malcolm Isaiah Shaw0%
Edward McCarthy0%
Jeremy Sivi0%
Sean Kerrigan0%
Axel Piesold0%
Max Wilson0%
Cillian Tollett0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Moses Dyer32%
Malcolm Isaiah Shaw29%
Patrick Hickey23%
Stephen Walsh21%
Dara McGuinness10%
Jimmy Keohane10%
Bobby Burns6%
Vincent Borden4%
David Hurley3%
Greg Cunningham0%
Brendan Clarke0%
Regan Donelon0%
Colm Horgan0%
Garry Buckley0%
Conor McCormack0%
Killian Brouder0%
Cian Byrne0%
Jeannot Esua0%
Aaron Bolger0%
Robert Slevin0%
Edward McCarthy0%
Jeremy Sivi0%
Sean Kerrigan0%
Axel Piesold0%
Evan Watts0%
Max Wilson0%
Cillian Tollett0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Danny Mullen24%
Liam Boyce22%
Alex Bannon17%
Gavin Whyte14%
Pat Hoban14%
Kevin Holt11%
Adam O'Reilly10%
Sadou Diallo10%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Ronan Boyce7%
Robbie Benson4%
Sam Todd3%
Mark Connolly3%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo48%
Adam O'Reilly45%
Carl Winchester40%
Jamie Stott40%
Ciaron Harkin40%
Shane Ferguson33%
Liam Boyce22%
Hayden Cann22%
Danny Mullen20%
Ben Doherty20%
Paul McMullan19%
Mark Connolly18%
Kevin Holt17%
Ronan Boyce17%
Alex Bannon17%
Robbie Benson15%
Michael Duffy15%
Pat Hoban14%
Sean Patton11%
Sam Todd10%
Dominic Thomas8%
Gavin Whyte7%
Brian Maher6%
Brandon Fleming0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Duffy24%
Dominic Thomas23%
Brandon Fleming17%
Afolabi Akinyemi14%
Paul McMullan12%
Gavin Whyte11%
Jamie Stott10%
Shane Ferguson8%
Robbie Benson7%
Sam Todd7%
Carl Winchester7%
Liam Boyce4%
Hayden Cann4%
Danny Mullen4%
Ronan Boyce3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Alex Bannon0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Alex Bannon17%
Danny Mullen12%
Liam Boyce9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Mark Connolly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Robbie Benson0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Galway United's squad is €2m less valuable than Derry City's (€3m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Galway United and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Galway United and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Galway United and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Cork City
Bray Wanderers