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Genk vs Anderlecht Result & Analysis

Date: 04/12/2025
Time: 19:30
Final 1-3
Genk
Genk
Vs
54%
24%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Belgium: Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Genk’s recent draw against Antwerp and Anderlecht’s win over Kairat Almaty set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model forecasting an average of 3.2 goals. The probabilities show a 54% chance of a Genk victory, 24% for a draw, and 23% for an Anderlecht win, making a home win the clear favourite. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8% probability, while the expected total of 3 goals carries a 22% chance. Genk, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded; Anderlecht, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Home +2 handicap (90.5% miss), Under 5.5 (89.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (88.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.3% miss), and Home over 0.5 goals (86.2%).

Results analysis

The upset came early as Anderlecht overturned the pre-match favourite, Genk, with a 1-3 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 54% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 1-3 gave the away side a clean win, a result that the model had not anticipated. The model’s other selections performed largely as expected: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.3%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.4%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.5%, Under 5.5 hit at 89.4%, and Home over 0.5 goals hit at 86.2%. The Home +2 handicap missed at 90.5%, and Away under 2.5 goals missed at 87.3%. The match finished with a total of four goals, well below the predicted 3.2.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Genk win✗ Miss
53.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht win✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GenkGenk

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D00D11D30W10W43W11D01L21W21WA·CER19/10H·REA23/10H·RAA26/10H·RWD29/10A·KVC02/11A·SC 06/11A·GEN09/11H·KV 23/11H·FC 27/11H·OH 30/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.171.121.121.861.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.501.120.881.122.121.12
vs Weaker (14)1.431.211.381.121.501.33
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AnderlechtAnderlecht

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W22D01L20W31W10W10W10WH·GEN23/09A·OH 26/09H·STA05/10A·ST.19/10A·CHA24/10H·NIN28/10H·KV 01/11H·CLU09/11A·RAA23/11H·UNI30/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.931.750.751.141.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.170.831.290.431.001.40
vs Weaker (18)1.671.002.111.001.221.00
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.2%
Genk goals ↓
Anderlecht goals →
01234
05.0%4.0%3.1%1.3%0.4%
17.0%11%6.1%2.5%0.8%
27.9%9.7%6.0%2.5%0.8%
35.2%6.4%3.9%1.6%0.5%
42.6%3.2%2.0%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Genk goals (down), columns = Anderlecht goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aubel
3.00
Club Brugge KV
2.67
VW Hamme
2.60
Berlare
2.50
Sporting Bruxelles
2.50
Turkse Rangers
2.40
Mandel United
2.33
Albert Quévy-Mons
2.33
Berg en Dal
2.33
Aywaille
2.25
HO Kalken
2.25
Spouwen-Mopertingen
2.25
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
2.25
RFC Wetteren
2.25
Tubize
2.25
Sparta Petegem
2.25
Biesme
2.25
Geel
2.25
Olympic Charleroi
2.25
Anderlecht
2.17
KV Mechelen
2.00
Zulte Waregem
2.00
Elsautoise
2.00
Schoonbeek-Beverst
2.00
Eendracht Termien
2.00
Knokke
2.00
Diegem Sport
2.00
Dessel Sport
2.00
Ninove
2.00
RUS Binche
2.00
DT Borsbeke
2.00
Rotselaar
2.00
Genk
2.00
Patro Eisden
2.00
St. Truiden
2.00
Rupel Boom
2.00
Betekom
2.00
Wallonne Ciney
2.00
OH Leuven
2.00
Witgoor Sport
2.00
Acren-Lessines
2.00
FC Eupen
2.00
La Louvière Centre
2.00
Onhaye
2.00
Nijlen
2.00
Etterbeek
2.00
Union St. Gilloise
2.00
RAS Monceau
2.00
Sprimont
2.00
Kortrijk
2.00
Rochefort
1.75
Houtvenne
1.75
Meux
1.75
Herent
1.75
Grand-Leez
1.75
Kosova Schaerbeek
1.75
Thes Sport
1.67
Ganshoren
1.67
Diksmuide
1.60
Antwerp
1.60
Standard Liege
1.50
SK Beveren
1.50
KVC Westerlo
1.50
Harelbeke
1.50
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
1.50
Merelbeke
1.50
Jong Lede
1.50
La Calamine
1.50
Habay-la-Neuve
1.50
Lille (Belgium)
1.50
Entité Manageoise
1.50
City Pirates Antwerpen
1.50
Jodoigne
1.50
Raeren-Eynatten
1.50
Achel
1.50
Zelzate
1.50
Marloie Sport
1.50
Londerzeel
1.50
Tempo Overijse
1.50
Gent
1.50
Sporting Hasselt
1.50
Sassport Boezinge
1.50
Haasdonk
1.50
Longlier
1.50
Sint-Denijs Sport
1.50
Condruzien
1.50
Olympia Wijgmaal
1.50
Zwarte Leeuw
1.50
Zepperen-Brustem
1.50
Westhoek
1.50
Harre-Manhay
1.50
Gosselies Sports
1.50
Wallonia Libin
1.50
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
KRC Gent
1.50
Stockay-Warfusée
1.50
Berchem Sport
1.50
Stade Verviers
1.50
Evelette-Jallet
1.50
Mormont
1.50
KBSK Retie
1.50
Huy
1.50
Cercle Brugge
1.50
Liège
1.50
Elene-Grotenberge
1.50
AS Eupen
1.50
K. Lierse S.K.
1.50
RWDM
1.50
Bocholt
1.50
Meix-Devant-Virton
1.33
Voorde Appelterre
1.33
Blankenberge
1.33
Racing Mechelen
1.33
FC Du Geer
1.33
K. Kontich
1.33
Eendracht Aalter
1.33
Beerschot VA
1.33
Saint-Vith
1.06
Eendracht Aalst
1.06
Noduwez
1.06
Verlaine II
1.06
Dessel
1.06
Molenbaix
1.06
Bioul
1.06
Wanze / Bas-Oha
1.06
Grobbendonk
1.06
Wilrijk
1.06
Marke
1.06
Club Roeselare
1.06
's Gravenwezel-Schilde
1.06
Elewijt
1.06
Latem
1.06
Fenixx BeigHum
1.06
Wanze / Bas-Oha II
1.06
La Hulpe
1.06
Eeklo Meetjesland
1.06
Ezaart Sport Mol
1.06
Messancy
1.06
Torpedo Hasselt
1.06
Le Roeulx
1.06
Herk
1.06
Ardooie
1.06
Noordstar Noorderwijk
1.06
Munkzwalm
1.06
Rochefort II
1.06
Berlaar-Heikant
1.06
Galmaarden
1.06
Luingnois
1.06
Hannut
1.06
Zonhoven United
1.06
Union Momalloise
1.06
Stade Mouscronnois
1.06
Saint-Michel
1.06
Zwevegem Sport
1.00
Heist
1.00
Hades
1.00
Landen
1.00
Oostkamp
1.00
Turnhout
1.00
Ostiches
1.00
Léopold
1.00
Denderhoutem
1.00
Tilffois
1.00
Roeselare Daisel
1.00
Flénu
1.00
Libramont
1.00
RUS Assenois
1.00
Braine
0.50
Erpe-Mere United
0.50
Wezel
0.50
Rumbeke
0.50
Seraing United
0.50
Oppagne-Wéris
0.50
Aische
0.50
RESC Houffaloise
0.50
RAAL La Louvière
0.50
Avanti
0.50
Arquet
0.50
Hoogstraten
0.00
Jette
0.00
Oudenaarde
0.00
Gullegem
0.00
Charleroi
0.00
Excelsior Virton
0.00
Crossing Schaerbeek
0.00
Tournai
0.00
Cappellen
0.00
Wambeek-Ternat
0.00
Waremme
0.00
Dender
0.00
Olsa Brakel
0.00
De Kempen
0.00
Union Namur
0.00
Tienen
0.00
Chevetogne
0.00
Bevel
0.00
PAC Buzet
0.00
Sparta Waasmunster
0.00
FC Lebbeke
0.00
Waterloo
0.00
Wellen
0.00
Lauwe
0.00
Tongeren
0.00
Esperanza Pelt
0.00
Richelle United
0.00
Meux II
0.00
Stade Everois
0.00
Pepingen-Halle
0.00
Huldenberg
0.00
Sint-Lenaarts
0.00
Antoing
0.00
Torhout
0.00
Sparta Heestert
0.00
Francs Borains
0.00
Lommel United
0.00
Drongen
0.00
KSK Beveren
0.00
Loyers
0.00
Verlaine
0.00
Genk is 0.17 points worse than Anderlecht in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Gent
4.50
Acren-Lessines
4.00
Huy
4.00
Sprimont
4.00
Ninove
3.67
Sassport Boezinge
3.50
Longlier
3.50
Berchem Sport
3.50
Mandel United
3.33
Berg en Dal
3.33
Diegem Sport
3.00
Entité Manageoise
3.00
DT Borsbeke
3.00
Zelzate
3.00
Sporting Hasselt
3.00
Gosselies Sports
3.00
Nijlen
3.00
KBSK Retie
3.00
Etterbeek
3.00
Meux II
3.00
Antoing
3.00
RWDM
3.00
KSK Beveren
3.00
Club Brugge KV
2.83
Houtvenne
2.75
Olympic Charleroi
2.75
Meix-Devant-Virton
2.67
Knokke
2.67
RUS Binche
2.67
Turkse Rangers
2.60
Antwerp
2.60
KV Mechelen
2.50
Harelbeke
2.50
RFC Wetteren
2.50
Habay-la-Neuve
2.50
Lille (Belgium)
2.50
City Pirates Antwerpen
2.50
Londerzeel
2.50
Tempo Overijse
2.50
Condruzien
2.50
Elsautoise
2.40
VW Hamme
2.40
Albert Quévy-Mons
2.33
Dessel Sport
2.33
Patro Eisden
2.33
OH Leuven
2.33
Union St. Gilloise
2.33
HO Kalken
2.25
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
2.25
Sporting Bruxelles
2.25
Biesme
2.25
Geel
2.25
Anderlecht
2.17
Standard Liege
2.00
Aywaille
2.00
Braine
2.00
Schoonbeek-Beverst
2.00
Eendracht Termien
2.00
Spouwen-Mopertingen
2.00
Rotselaar
2.00
Oudenaarde
2.00
Sparta Petegem
2.00
Jodoigne
2.00
Turnhout
2.00
Genk
2.00
Haasdonk
2.00
Sint-Denijs Sport
2.00
Berlare
2.00
Zwarte Leeuw
2.00
Wallonne Ciney
2.00
Léopold
2.00
Stockay-Warfusée
2.00
Denderhoutem
2.00
Ganshoren
2.00
Tilffois
2.00
La Louvière Centre
2.00
Onhaye
2.00
Evelette-Jallet
2.00
Liège
2.00
FC Lebbeke
2.00
Aubel
2.00
Eendracht Aalter
2.00
Libramont
2.00
Pepingen-Halle
2.00
Tubize
1.75
Zulte Waregem
1.67
Racing Mechelen
1.67
K. Kontich
1.67
Beerschot VA
1.67
Diksmuide
1.60
SK Beveren
1.50
KVC Westerlo
1.50
Rochefort
1.50
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
1.50
Jong Lede
1.50
Achel
1.50
Marloie Sport
1.50
Olympia Wijgmaal
1.50
Westhoek
1.50
Wallonia Libin
1.50
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
Stade Verviers
1.50
Aische
1.50
Cercle Brugge
1.50
AS Eupen
1.50
K. Lierse S.K.
1.50
Bocholt
1.50
Saint-Vith
1.47
Eendracht Aalst
1.47
Noduwez
1.47
Verlaine II
1.47
Dessel
1.47
Molenbaix
1.47
Bioul
1.47
Wanze / Bas-Oha
1.47
Grobbendonk
1.47
Wilrijk
1.47
Marke
1.47
Club Roeselare
1.47
's Gravenwezel-Schilde
1.47
Elewijt
1.47
Latem
1.47
Fenixx BeigHum
1.47
Wanze / Bas-Oha II
1.47
La Hulpe
1.47
Eeklo Meetjesland
1.47
Ezaart Sport Mol
1.47
Messancy
1.47
Torpedo Hasselt
1.47
Le Roeulx
1.47
Herk
1.47
Ardooie
1.47
Noordstar Noorderwijk
1.47
Munkzwalm
1.47
Rochefort II
1.47
Berlaar-Heikant
1.47
Galmaarden
1.47
Luingnois
1.47
Hannut
1.47
Zonhoven United
1.47
Union Momalloise
1.47
Stade Mouscronnois
1.47
Saint-Michel
1.47
Thes Sport
1.33
Landen
1.33
Voorde Appelterre
1.33
Rupel Boom
1.33
Betekom
1.33
Blankenberge
1.33
FC Du Geer
1.33
FC Eupen
1.33
RAS Monceau
1.33
Herent
1.25
Merelbeke
1.00
La Calamine
1.00
Jette
1.00
Hades
1.00
Wezel
1.00
Oostkamp
1.00
Ostiches
1.00
Charleroi
1.00
St. Truiden
1.00
Excelsior Virton
1.00
Harre-Manhay
1.00
Seraing United
1.00
Dender
1.00
Witgoor Sport
1.00
KRC Gent
1.00
Grand-Leez
1.00
De Kempen
1.00
Union Namur
1.00
Tienen
1.00
Mormont
1.00
Chevetogne
1.00
PAC Buzet
1.00
RESC Houffaloise
1.00
Sparta Waasmunster
1.00
RAAL La Louvière
1.00
Waterloo
1.00
Wellen
1.00
Avanti
1.00
Esperanza Pelt
1.00
Roeselare Daisel
1.00
Richelle United
1.00
Flénu
1.00
Francs Borains
1.00
Drongen
1.00
Loyers
1.00
Meux
0.75
Kosova Schaerbeek
0.75
Raeren-Eynatten
0.50
Rumbeke
0.50
Zepperen-Brustem
0.50
Arquet
0.50
Elene-Grotenberge
0.50
Kortrijk
0.50
Zwevegem Sport
0.00
Hoogstraten
0.00
Heist
0.00
Erpe-Mere United
0.00
Gullegem
0.00
Crossing Schaerbeek
0.00
Tournai
0.00
Cappellen
0.00
Wambeek-Ternat
0.00
Waremme
0.00
Oppagne-Wéris
0.00
Olsa Brakel
0.00
Bevel
0.00
Lauwe
0.00
Tongeren
0.00
Stade Everois
0.00
Huldenberg
0.00
Sint-Lenaarts
0.00
RUS Assenois
0.00
Torhout
0.00
Sparta Heestert
0.00
Lommel United
0.00
Verlaine
0.00
Genk is 0.17 goals worse than Anderlecht in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zwevegem Sport
0.00
Heist
0.00
Aubel
0.00
RUS Assenois
0.00
Kortrijk
0.00
RFC Wetteren
0.25
RAS Monceau
0.33
Tempo Overijse
0.50
Sassport Boezinge
0.50
Zwarte Leeuw
0.50
Zepperen-Brustem
0.50
Kosova Schaerbeek
0.50
Cercle Brugge
0.50
Mandel United
0.67
Voorde Appelterre
0.67
Albert Quévy-Mons
0.67
Witgoor Sport
0.67
Acren-Lessines
0.67
Berlare
0.75
Herent
0.75
Biesme
0.75
Geel
0.75
VW Hamme
0.80
Genk
0.80
Club Brugge KV
0.83
Anderlecht
0.83
Hoogstraten
1.00
Schoonbeek-Beverst
1.00
Thes Sport
1.00
Hades
1.00
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
1.00
Diksmuide
1.00
Lille (Belgium)
1.00
Oostkamp
1.00
Achel
1.00
Zelzate
1.00
Ostiches
1.00
Antwerp
1.00
Sporting Hasselt
1.00
Meux
1.00
Tournai
1.00
Rumbeke
1.00
Longlier
1.00
Cappellen
1.00
OH Leuven
1.00
Wallonia Libin
1.00
Lokeren-Temse
1.00
Sporting Bruxelles
1.00
Olsa Brakel
1.00
Onhaye
1.00
Tongeren
1.00
Roeselare Daisel
1.00
Flénu
1.00
Stade Everois
1.00
Torhout
1.00
RWDM
1.00
Lommel United
1.00
Verlaine
1.00
HO Kalken
1.25
Tubize
1.25
Grand-Leez
1.25
Diegem Sport
1.33
Ninove
1.33
Rotselaar
1.33
St. Truiden
1.33
Rupel Boom
1.33
Blankenberge
1.33
FC Du Geer
1.33
Eendracht Aalter
1.33
Beerschot VA
1.33
Elsautoise
1.40
KV Mechelen
1.50
Aywaille
1.50
Merelbeke
1.50
Erpe-Mere United
1.50
Eendracht Termien
1.50
Spouwen-Mopertingen
1.50
Habay-la-Neuve
1.50
DT Borsbeke
1.50
Wezel
1.50
Raeren-Eynatten
1.50
Marloie Sport
1.50
Gent
1.50
Olympia Wijgmaal
1.50
Oppagne-Wéris
1.50
Stade Verviers
1.50
Evelette-Jallet
1.50
KBSK Retie
1.50
Arquet
1.50
Elene-Grotenberge
1.50
Olympic Charleroi
1.50
Bocholt
1.50
Meix-Devant-Virton
1.67
Knokke
1.67
Dessel Sport
1.67
RUS Binche
1.67
Patro Eisden
1.67
Wallonne Ciney
1.67
Racing Mechelen
1.67
FC Eupen
1.67
Ganshoren
1.67
Nijlen
1.67
Berg en Dal
1.67
K. Kontich
1.67
Sparta Petegem
1.75
Turkse Rangers
1.80
Saint-Vith
1.93
Eendracht Aalst
1.93
Noduwez
1.93
Verlaine II
1.93
Dessel
1.93
Molenbaix
1.93
Bioul
1.93
Wanze / Bas-Oha
1.93
Grobbendonk
1.93
Wilrijk
1.93
Marke
1.93
Club Roeselare
1.93
's Gravenwezel-Schilde
1.93
Elewijt
1.93
Latem
1.93
Fenixx BeigHum
1.93
Wanze / Bas-Oha II
1.93
La Hulpe
1.93
Eeklo Meetjesland
1.93
Ezaart Sport Mol
1.93
Messancy
1.93
Torpedo Hasselt
1.93
Le Roeulx
1.93
Herk
1.93
Ardooie
1.93
Noordstar Noorderwijk
1.93
Munkzwalm
1.93
Rochefort II
1.93
Berlaar-Heikant
1.93
Galmaarden
1.93
Luingnois
1.93
Hannut
1.93
Zonhoven United
1.93
Union Momalloise
1.93
Stade Mouscronnois
1.93
Saint-Michel
1.93
Standard Liege
2.00
SK Beveren
2.00
SG-Tertre-Hautrage
2.00
Jette
2.00
Houtvenne
2.00
Gullegem
2.00
Turnhout
2.00
Londerzeel
2.00
Crossing Schaerbeek
2.00
Betekom
2.00
Sint-Denijs Sport
2.00
Wambeek-Ternat
2.00
Condruzien
2.00
Westhoek
2.00
Léopold
2.00
Waremme
2.00
Seraing United
2.00
Dender
2.00
KRC Gent
2.00
Stockay-Warfusée
2.00
Denderhoutem
2.00
Tilffois
2.00
La Louvière Centre
2.00
Tienen
2.00
Bevel
2.00
PAC Buzet
2.00
Liège
2.00
Sparta Waasmunster
2.00
RAAL La Louvière
2.00
Sprimont
2.00
Avanti
2.00
Esperanza Pelt
2.00
Richelle United
2.00
Libramont
2.00
Sint-Lenaarts
2.00
Francs Borains
2.00
K. Lierse S.K.
2.00
Drongen
2.00
Loyers
2.00
Rochefort
2.25
Zulte Waregem
2.33
Union St. Gilloise
2.33
KVC Westerlo
2.50
Harelbeke
2.50
Braine
2.50
Jong Lede
2.50
Entité Manageoise
2.50
Harre-Manhay
2.50
Etterbeek
2.50
AS Eupen
2.50
Landen
2.67
La Calamine
3.00
City Pirates Antwerpen
3.00
Oudenaarde
3.00
Jodoigne
3.00
Excelsior Virton
3.00
Haasdonk
3.00
Union Namur
3.00
Mormont
3.00
Chevetogne
3.00
Huy
3.00
FC Lebbeke
3.00
Waterloo
3.00
Lauwe
3.00
Pepingen-Halle
3.00
Gosselies Sports
3.50
Berchem Sport
3.50
Aische
3.50
RESC Houffaloise
3.50
Charleroi
4.00
De Kempen
4.00
Meux II
4.00
Huldenberg
4.00
KSK Beveren
4.00
Antoing
5.00
Wellen
6.00
Sparta Heestert
7.00
Genk is 0.03 goals better than Anderlecht in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 0.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Genk or Draw✗ Miss
77.5%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
23%
covers Genk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Genk or Anderlecht✓ Hit
76.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
23%
covers Genk + Anderlecht
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Anderlecht✓ Hit
46.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
24%
23%
covers Draw + Anderlecht
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Genk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.7%
Under
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Genk, so a minus line means Genk give that many goals of a start and Anderlecht receive them. At -1, Genk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Genk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Genk)Actual: Anderlecht
Genk -2
15.5%
Draw -2
16.6%
Anderlecht +2
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Genk)Actual: Anderlecht
Genk -1
32.1%
Draw -1
21.6%
Anderlecht +1
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Genk)Actual: Anderlecht
Genk +1
77.5%
Draw +1
13.1%
Anderlecht -1
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Genk)Actual: Draw
Genk +2
90.5%
Draw +2
6.4%
Anderlecht -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GenkGenk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D00D10W11D10W01L20W00DA·CER19/10H·REA23/10H·RAA26/10H·RWD29/10A·KVC02/11A·SC 06/11A·GEN09/11H·KV 23/11H·FC 27/11H·OH 30/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.670.560.810.930.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.560.620.751.000.38
vs Weaker (14)0.640.790.500.880.830.67
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AnderlechtAnderlecht

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D21W00D20W21W10W00D10WH·GEN23/09A·OH 26/09H·STA05/10A·ST.19/10A·CHA24/10H·NIN28/10H·KV 01/11H·CLU09/11A·RAA23/11H·UNI30/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.400.940.380.290.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.500.330.710.140.200.60
vs Weaker (18)0.720.441.110.560.330.33
Clean sheet %67% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Genk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GenkGenk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D30W00D32W01L00D01L21WA·CER19/10H·REA23/10H·RAA26/10H·RWD29/10A·KVC02/11A·SC 06/11A·GEN09/11H·KV 23/11H·FC 27/11H·OH 30/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.500.560.310.930.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.690.560.250.381.120.75
vs Weaker (14)0.790.430.880.250.670.67
Clean sheet %57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AnderlechtAnderlecht

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W11D10W01L01L00D10W00D10W00DH·GEN23/09A·OH 26/09H·STA05/10A·ST.19/10A·CHA24/10H·NIN28/10H·KV 01/11H·CLU09/11A·RAA23/11H·UNI30/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.530.810.380.860.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.670.500.570.290.800.80
vs Weaker (18)0.940.561.000.440.890.67
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Genk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Genk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.598.3%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals96.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.595.5%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap90.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.589.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls88.9%--------
Away under 2.5 goals87.3%-------✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals86.2%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals86.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.584.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.8%--------
Over 21.5 fouls78.7%--------
Under 4.577.9%-------✓ Hit
Home or Draw77.5%-------✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap77.5%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away76.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners75.1%--------
Under 5.5 cards71.5%--------
Away over 0.5 goals70.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (33)
€274m
GEN (59)
€182m
USG (35)
€163m
AND (34)
€126m
ANT (35)
€97m
KW (33)
€66m
GEN (46)
€62m
SL (34)
€57m
ST (25)
€53m
KM (30)
€51m
CB (28)
€44m
CHA (58)
€44m
ZW (32)
€32m
DEN (31)
€24m
RLL (28)
€22m
SB (26)
€15m
BV (31)
€13m
KOR (24)
€13m
LU (28)
€13m
PE (22)
€6m
Genk's squad is €55m more valuable than Anderlecht's (€182m vs €126m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (13)
€130m
GEN (26)
€106m
USG (12)
€59m
AND (11)
€46m
KW (13)
€32m
ST (11)
€29m
GEN (17)
€24m
ANT (11)
€17m
ZW (12)
€16m
SL (10)
€16m
CB (9)
€14m
KM (10)
€12m
CHA (19)
€11m
SB (12)
€8m
RLL (11)
€8m
DEN (8)
€7m
LU (11)
€7m
KOR (10)
€6m
BV (12)
€4m
PE (7)
€2m
Genk's attack is €60m more valuable than Anderlecht's (€106m vs €46m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (11)
€69m
CBK (6)
€65m
AND (6)
€38m
ANT (9)
€24m
GEN (12)
€21m
GEN (8)
€20m
CHA (10)
€14m
KW (7)
€11m
ST (4)
€10m
CB (7)
€9m
SL (8)
€9m
ZW (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
DEN (9)
€7m
RLL (6)
€5m
SB (4)
€2m
KOR (4)
€2m
BV (6)
€2m
LU (5)
€2m
PE (4)
€1m
Genk's midfield is €18m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€20m vs €38m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (14)
€79m
ANT (15)
€57m
GEN (25)
€56m
AND (17)
€42m
USG (12)
€35m
SL (16)
€32m
KM (13)
€32m
KW (13)
€23m
CB (12)
€22m
CHA (29)
€19m
GEN (17)
€16m
ST (10)
€13m
DEN (14)
€10m
RLL (11)
€9m
ZW (13)
€8m
BV (13)
€7m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€4m
LU (12)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
Genk's defence is €13m more valuable than Anderlecht's (€56m vs €42m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
GEN wins
1
Draws
2
AND wins

Head-to-head

Genk vs Anderlecht · H/A from GEN
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25AAnderlecht Vs GEN1-1
25/05/25HGEN Vs Anderlecht2-1
06/04/25AAnderlecht Vs GEN1-2
22/12/24HGEN Vs Anderlecht2-0
17/09/24AAnderlecht Vs GEN0-2
11/05/24AAnderlecht Vs GEN2-1
20/04/24HGEN Vs Anderlecht2-1
23/12/23AAnderlecht Vs GEN2-1

GenkGenk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25HGEN Vs OH Leuven2-1
27/11/25HGEN Vs FC Basel 18932-1
23/11/25HGEN Vs KV Mechelen0-1
09/11/25AGent Vs GEN1-1
06/11/25ASC Braga Vs GEN3-4
02/11/25AKVC Westerlo Vs GEN0-1
29/10/25HGEN Vs RWDM3-0
26/10/25HGEN Vs RAAL La Louvière1-1
23/10/25HGEN Vs Real Betis0-0
19/10/25ACercle Brugge Vs GEN2-2

AnderlechtAnderlecht

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/25HAND Vs Union St. Gilloise1-0
23/11/25ARAAL La Louvière Vs AND0-1
09/11/25HAND Vs Club Brugge KV1-0
01/11/25HAND Vs KV Mechelen3-1
28/10/25HAND Vs Ninove2-0
24/10/25ACharleroi Vs AND1-0
19/10/25ASt. Truiden Vs AND2-2
05/10/25HAND Vs Standard Liege1-0
26/09/25AOH Leuven Vs AND1-1
23/09/25HAND Vs Gent1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Genk
Genk
Belgium: Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.72
HomeDWLWW1.64
AwayWDWWD1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%48%52%
AVG goals2.562.242.88
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %16%8%24%
Scored1.521.321.72
Conceded1.040.921.16
BTTS62%52%72%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners8.839.048.61
Cards4.003.744.26
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
Belgium: Cup
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.50
HomeWWWWW1.81
AwayLDDLW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%33%
AVG goals2.462.692.21
Over 1.5 %72%65%79%
Over 2.5 %38%46%29%
Over 3.5 %22%31%12%
Scored1.341.690.96
Conceded1.121.001.25
BTTS36%38%33%
Clean Sheet40%50%29%
Corners9.799.5710.05
Cards4.824.794.85

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV4088
70%
2.2
9145+46
3.4
78%
65%
35%
11.0
68%
3.9
49%
20.9
45%
274
13065792.31.1
60%
2Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise4086
62%
2.1
6627+39
2.3
70%
40%
20%
9.4
55%
4.9
71%
21.6
52%
163
5969351.60.7
52%
3St. TruidenSt. Truiden4071
55%
1.8
6146+15
2.7
80%
55%
25%
10.2
68%
4.0
54%
21.4
52%
53
2910131.51.1
55%
4GenkGenk4160
37%
1.5
5854+4
2.7
83%
54%
15%
9.8
49%
3.8
50%
22.2
54%
182
10620561.41.3
58%
5Standard LiegeStandard Liege4057
40%
1.4
4446-2
2.2
72%
45%
12%
10.0
45%
4.5
68%
22.3
52%
57
169321.11.1
44%
6AnderlechtAnderlecht4055
38%
1.4
5962-3
3.0
75%
52%
45%
10.5
70%
5.3
72%
24.6
78%
126
4638421.51.6
53%
7GentGent4152
32%
1.3
5458-4
2.7
80%
49%
34%
10.4
59%
3.7
45%
21.5
44%
62
2421161.31.4
49%
8KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo4052
35%
1.3
5057-7
2.7
78%
42%
22%
10.2
57%
3.9
60%
23.7
68%
66
3211231.21.4
49%
9CharleroiCharleroi4051
35%
1.3
5050+0
2.5
78%
40%
22%
10.7
57%
4.0
54%
22.1
55%
44
1114191.21.2
50%
10KV MechelenKV Mechelen4051
32%
1.3
4861-13
2.7
75%
48%
32%
10.3
50%
4.2
57%
22.4
50%
51
127321.21.5
49%
11Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
81%
53%
36%
9.8
50%
3.6
39%
23.1
61%
32
16881.51.5
48%
12AntwerpAntwerp4048
32%
1.2
4348-5
2.3
72%
40%
15%
9.3
50%
4.5
60%
24.6
75%
97
1724571.11.2
49%
13Cercle BruggeCercle Brugge3641
28%
1.1
5358-5
3.1
89%
58%
36%
10.8
69%
3.7
50%
22.8
61%
44
149221.51.6
48%
14OH LeuvenOH Leuven4040
25%
1.0
4160-19
2.5
75%
45%
25%
11.1
68%
5.1
68%
25.6
72%
0
0001.01.5
46%
15RAAL La LouvièreRAAL La Louvière3634
19%
0.9
3550-15
2.4
64%
47%
22%
9.4
50%
3.6
49%
23.6
67%
22
8591.01.4
39%
16DenderDender3826
13%
0.7
3365-32
2.6
71%
55%
29%
9.5
47%
3.8
53%
22.1
55%
24
77100.91.7
48%
17Lommel UnitedLommel United616
83%
2.7
145+9
3.2
83%
83%
50%
11.0
83%
3.8
50%
23.2
50%
13
7242.30.8
45%
18Beerschot VABeerschot VA44
25%
1.0
69-3
3.8
100%
75%
75%
9.5
50%
4.8
75%
26.5
100%
13
4271.52.2
64%
19Patro EisdenPatro Eisden21
0%
0.5
34-1
3.5
100%
50%
50%
7.5
0%
5.5
100%
27.0
100%
6
2131.52.0
29%
20LiègeLiège20
0%
0.0
15-4
3.0
100%
100%
0%
10.0
50%
3.0
0%
21.0
0%
0
0000.52.5
56%
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →

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