PythiaFootballBETA
Genk's recent form has been impressive, coming off a win against KVC Westerlo, but Antwerp is on a 3-game winning run, having defeated Kortrijk 3-0. Defensively, Genk has been solid at home, conceding just 1.6 goals per game against similar opponents, while Antwerp has been stingy away, conceding only 0.67 goals per game against similar opponents. However, Genk's home scoring has been slightly below par, averaging 2.4 goals per game against similar opponents.
The most likely match result is a home win for Genk, with a 37% probability. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability.
In terms of suggested picks, the model selects Under 3.5, with an 81.3% probability of hitting. Genk has a 37% chance of winning, a 32% chance of drawing, and a 32% chance of losing. The model's selections are: Under 3.5 (81.3%), Home win (37%), Draw (32%), and Away win (32%).
In a stunning turn of events, Genk's 0-0 draw with Antwerp extends their unbeaten run at home, but it's the away side that stole the show. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with Antwerp proving to be the stronger team despite being the underdog. The model's call was wrong, and the pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 37% probability of occurring.
The model's selection, Under 3.5, hit, with a probability of 81.3%, and the actual result was a draw. The final score was 0-0, a result that matches the most likely score of 0-0, with a probability of 28%.
Genk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 1.60 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.82 | 1.73 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Antwerp| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.30 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.05 | 1.35 | 1.22 | 1.44 | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Antwerp goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 10% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 11% | 15% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
GenkAntwerpGenk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 22.3 | 22.9 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 8.3 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 23.3 | 23.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Similar (18) | 9.5 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 22.5 | 24.6 | 20.8 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 9.9 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22.2 |
| % over line | 48% | 64% | 32% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 58% | 60% | 56% |
| % under line | 52% | 36% | 68% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 42% | 40% | 44% |
Antwerp| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 24.2 | 24.1 | 24.3 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 20.5 |
| vs Similar (22) | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 23.3 | 23.3 | 23.2 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 9.6 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 25.5 | 25.3 | 25.8 |
| % over line | 42% | 40% | 44% | 58% | 64% | 52% | 72% | 68% | 76% |
| % under line | 58% | 60% | 56% | 42% | 36% | 48% | 28% | 32% | 24% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/08/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/04/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 26/12/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/11/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/24 | H | 1-0 |
Genk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 5-5 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 5-1 |
Antwerp| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 | Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 | Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |