The model picks an away win for Como, with a 49% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Genoa win. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Genoa, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.88 conceded. Como, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.6 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0% with a 2% edge), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (95.8% with a 1% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.0% with a 2% edge) and Home under 2.5 goals (94.8% with a 2% edge). The model’s selections reflect a low-scoring affair with Como likely to edge out a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Genoa win
23.6%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.98
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.47
1xBet
5.43
Betano
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.25
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.28
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.37
Betano
3.35
Como win
48.2%
Avg Implied 52.1% · @ 1.82
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Genoa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.47
1.47
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.69
1.00
1.88
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.64
0.93
2.00
1.00
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.83
1.86
0.86
1.88
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.80
1.50
2.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (18)
1.56
0.78
1.50
0.70
1.62
0.88
vs Weaker (7)
3.00
0.29
4.00
0.50
2.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.8%
@ 1.41+5.9%
Under 1.5
27.2%
@ 2.85-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.31+4.9%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.62-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
SBO
2.36
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Under
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 4.30+2.7%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.21-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Both teams to score
Yes
50.5%
@ 2.06+5.2%
No
49.5%
@ 1.71-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
2.15
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
BetVictor
2.05
No
Betfair
1.75
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.09+6.0%
0-1
11.1%@ 5.41+2.7%
0-2
9.3%@ 7.29+3.1%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.25+3.8%
0-0
9.3%@ 7.57+3.3%
1-0
6.8%@ 10.34+2.4%
2-1
6.1%@ 15.03+3.1%
0-3
4.7%@ 13.47+1.4%
Genoa goals ↓
Como goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
11%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.8%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.0%
6.1%
4.6%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Genoa goals (down), columns = Como goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Genoa is 0.79 points worse than Como in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Genoa is 0.63 goals worse than Como in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Genoa is 0.58 goals worse than Como in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Genoa is 12.9 percentage points worse than Como in terms of average possession (49% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Genoa
For 3.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 14.1 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Como
For 6.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genoa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.8
9.3
4.2
4.7
3.7
27.1
27.3
27.0
vs Stronger (26)
9.0
9.1
8.8
3.8
4.3
3.2
26.4
27.5
25.2
vs Similar (24)
8.2
6.5
9.8
4.6
5.1
4.2
27.9
27.0
28.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
24%
44%
70%
84%
56%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
66%
76%
56%
30%
16%
44%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Como) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.1
8.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
26.1
25.2
26.9
vs Stronger (8)
6.5
4.2
8.8
3.9
5.2
2.5
24.4
24.0
24.8
vs Similar (28)
8.1
8.2
8.1
4.5
4.3
4.6
25.7
24.2
27.1
vs Weaker (14)
7.9
6.7
9.1
5.0
4.6
5.4
27.8
27.7
27.9
% over line
28%
17%
38%
66%
67%
65%
80%
71%
88%
% under line
72%
83%
62%
34%
33%
35%
20%
29%
12%
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
30.5%
@ 2.45-7.3%
Under 9.5
69.5%
@ 1.49+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.64+1.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
@ 2.17-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.4%
Under 21.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Genoa or Draw
43.6%
Avg Implied 47.6% · @ 1.99
Edge
-4.0%
24%
28%
48%
covers Genoa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.04
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Genoa or Como
73.6%
Avg Implied 71.9% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.8%
24%
28%
48%
covers Genoa + Como
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw or Como
82.8%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
+2.2%
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + Como
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Genoa over/under 0.5
Over
56.3%
@ 1.67+0.7%
Under
43.7%
@ 2.09-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Genoa over/under 1.5
Over
20.1%
@ 4.50-0.6%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.18+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.85
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Genoa over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
@ 12.50-2.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Genoa over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
@ 35.33-1.8%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
40.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Como over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
@ 1.21+4.1%
Under
18.7%
@ 4.08-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.41
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Como over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
@ 2.08+5.0%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.70-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Como over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
@ 4.46+2.8%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.18-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.59
Marathonbet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Como over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
@ 9.86-0.5%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.03+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Genoa, so a minus line means Genoa give that many goals of a start and Como receive them. At -1, Genoa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Genoa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Genoa)
Genoa -2
1.3%
@ 45.00-0.8%
Draw -2
4.3%
@ 15.33-1.8%
Como +2
94.3%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
34.00
Draw
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Genoa)
Genoa -1
5.7%
@ 11.08-2.4%
Draw -1
11.5%
@ 5.71-4.0%
Como +1
82.8%
@ 1.16+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.40
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Handicap +1 (Genoa)
Genoa +1
43.6%
@ 1.99-2.2%
Draw +1
24.5%
@ 3.41-2.1%
Como -1
31.9%
@ 3.30+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
1.95
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Away
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Handicap +2 (Genoa)
Genoa +2
68.1%
@ 1.29-1.7%
Draw +2
17.8%
@ 5.08+0.0%
Como -2
14.1%
@ 7.32+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Genoa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
0.81
0.25
0.75
0.12
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.50
0.86
0.43
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.86
0.36
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.39
0.50
0.30
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
2.50
0.50
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
@ 1.49+7.3%
Under 0.5
29.9%
@ 2.52-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Superbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
William Hil
2.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 3.33+8.5%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.31-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Under
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 9.01+2.9%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.05-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
William Hil
9.50
BetVictor
9.50
Under
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.2%
@ 3.02+8.3%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.35-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.11
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Superbet
2.95
Under
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Genoa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
@ 11.25+0.1%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.02-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Genoa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
@ 55.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Como over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.2%
@ 1.91+4.5%
Under
46.8%
@ 1.82-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Como over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.6%
@ 5.55+0.9%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.11-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
Como over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
@ 14.25-2.8%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Genoa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.87
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.88
0.75
1.12
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.39
1.00
0.40
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.14
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.1%
@ 1.30+4.2%
Under 0.5
23.9%
@ 3.33-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.0%
@ 2.41+6.2%
Under 1.5
55.0%
@ 1.53-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.42
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Under
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
@ 5.62+0.2%
Under 2.5
83.2%
@ 1.12-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.4%
@ 2.44+4.4%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.50-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Genoa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
@ 9.11+1.9%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.04-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Genoa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 24.25-1.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Como over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.2%
@ 1.62-2.1%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.18+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Superbet
2.12
Como over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.4%
@ 4.01+2.3%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.20-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Como over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
@ 10.50-3.2%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+2.4%
Away +2 handicap
94.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-0.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+0.5%
Under 4.5
89.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
-0.3%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-1.9%
Under 11.5 corners
87.5%
1.15
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+7.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
-2.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-0.2%
Draw or Away
82.8%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.18
+2.2%
Away +1 handicap
82.8%
1.16
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
+6.4%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
-0.9%
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
1.21
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
+4.1%
Home under 1.5 goals
79.9%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+0.6%
Under 10.5 corners
79.8%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+7.6%
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.27
-
-
-
+6.4%
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.28
-
-
-
+4.4%
Over 21.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-2.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.1%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
+4.2%
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.21
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-2.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-2.3%
Home or Away
73.6%
1.31
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+1.8%
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.41
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
+5.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.49
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.49
+7.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Genoa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lorenzo Colombo33%
Alessandro Marcandalli33%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Vitinha0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leo Østigård67%
Morten Frendrup0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morten Frendrup33%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy33%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitinha67%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Como · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anastasios Douvikas32%
Nico Paz30%
Martin Baturina24%
Lucas Da Cunha17%
Jayden Addai12%
Marc-Oliver Kempf11%
Assane Diao10%
Alberto Moreno9%
Jesús Rodriguez8%
Máximo Perrone7%
Stefan Posch7%
Mërgim Vojvoda6%
Maxence Caqueret6%
Jacobo Ramón5%
Sergi Roberto4%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn4%
Álvaro Morata3%
Diego Carlos3%
Álex Valle3%
Jean Butez0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Ignace Van der Brempt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacobo Ramón32%
Diego Carlos29%
Ivan Smolčić25%
Jayden Addai25%
Máximo Perrone22%
Sergi Roberto21%
Alberto Moreno17%
Nico Paz15%
Álvaro Morata13%
Ignace Van der Brempt13%
Assane Diao10%
Álex Valle10%
Lucas Da Cunha10%
Maxence Caqueret8%
Jesús Rodriguez8%
Marc-Oliver Kempf8%
Jean Butez7%
Stefan Posch7%
Mërgim Vojvoda6%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn4%
Martin Baturina3%
Anastasios Douvikas0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jesús Rodriguez25%
Maxence Caqueret19%
Nico Paz15%
Álex Valle13%
Martin Baturina12%
Lucas Da Cunha10%
Ignace Van der Brempt9%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn8%
Máximo Perrone7%
Mërgim Vojvoda6%
Assane Diao5%
Anastasios Douvikas5%
Alberto Moreno4%
Álvaro Morata3%
Diego Carlos3%
Ivan Smolčić3%
Marc-Oliver Kempf3%
Jean Butez2%
Sergi Roberto0%
Stefan Posch0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Jayden Addai0%
Jacobo Ramón0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nico Paz45%
Anastasios Douvikas16%
Assane Diao10%
Jesús Rodriguez8%
Jacobo Ramón8%
Stefan Posch7%
Jayden Addai6%
Sergi Roberto4%
Álvaro Morata3%
Mërgim Vojvoda3%
Martin Baturina3%
Marc-Oliver Kempf3%
Alberto Moreno0%
Maxence Caqueret0%
Jean Butez0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Diego Carlos0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn0%
Ignace Van der Brempt0%
Lucas Da Cunha0%
Máximo Perrone0%
Álex Valle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Genoa's squad is €306m less valuable than Como's (€182m vs €488m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Genoa's attack is €207m less valuable than Como's (€54m vs €261m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Genoa's midfield is €39m less valuable than Como's (€44m vs €83m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Genoa's defence is €60m less valuable than Como's (€84m vs €144m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina