This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.86
1.00
2.09
0.73
1.60
1.30
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.10
2.00
0.71
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
0.50
2.25
0.75
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.3%
1-0
7.3%
0-0 ✓
7.2%
0-2
6.0%
2-0
5.9%
Genoa goals ↓
Fiorentina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
7.3%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.3%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.3%
5.9%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.8%
3.9%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Genoa goals (down), columns = Fiorentina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.39
Napoli
2.16
AS Roma
2.11
Inter
1.76
Fiorentina
1.68
Sassuolo
1.61
AC Milan
1.50
Lazio
1.42
Chievo
1.32
Empoli
1.21
Genoa
1.21
Torino
1.18
Atalanta
1.18
Bologna
1.11
Sampdoria
1.05
Udinese
1.03
Palermo
1.03
Carpi
1.00
Frosinone
0.82
Hellas Verona
0.74
Genoa is 0.47 points worse than Fiorentina in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AS Roma
2.18
Napoli
2.11
Juventus
1.97
Fiorentina
1.58
Torino
1.37
Lazio
1.37
Inter
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
AC Milan
1.29
Sampdoria
1.26
Genoa
1.18
Chievo
1.13
Atalanta
1.08
Empoli
1.05
Palermo
1.00
Carpi
0.97
Frosinone
0.92
Udinese
0.92
Hellas Verona
0.89
Bologna
0.87
Genoa is 0.39 goals worse than Fiorentina in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Juventus
0.53
Napoli
0.84
Inter
1.00
Sassuolo
1.05
AS Roma
1.08
Fiorentina
1.11
AC Milan
1.13
Bologna
1.18
Chievo
1.18
Atalanta
1.24
Genoa
1.26
Empoli
1.29
Lazio
1.37
Torino
1.45
Carpi
1.50
Udinese
1.58
Sampdoria
1.61
Hellas Verona
1.66
Palermo
1.71
Frosinone
2.00
Genoa is 0.16 goals worse than Fiorentina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Genoa
For 6.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 16.7 · Total 32.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
For 5.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.4 · Against 18.7 · Total 35.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genoa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
10.2
10.8
9.6
5.1
5.4
4.8
33.3
35.5
31.3
vs Stronger (8)
8.8
7.0
9.8
6.1
6.7
5.8
34.2
41.7
29.8
vs Similar (11)
10.4
11.4
9.5
4.5
5.0
4.0
33.3
34.2
32.5
vs Weaker (2)
15.0
15.0
-
4.5
4.5
-
29.5
29.5
-
% over line
57%
60%
55%
86%
100%
73%
95%
100%
91%
% under line
43%
40%
45%
14%
0%
27%
5%
0%
9%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
8.3
8.7
7.9
5.7
5.2
6.2
31.9
31.5
32.3
vs Stronger (3)
6.0
-
6.0
7.3
-
7.3
30.3
-
30.3
vs Similar (10)
9.4
9.0
10.3
5.2
5.4
4.7
31.6
31.4
32.0
vs Weaker (8)
7.9
8.2
7.5
5.6
4.8
6.5
32.9
31.8
34.0
% over line
19%
18%
20%
76%
64%
90%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
81%
82%
80%
24%
36%
10%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
12.1
Inter
11.5
Sampdoria
11.3
AS Roma
11.0
Hellas Verona
10.9
Sassuolo
10.8
Chievo
10.7
Lazio
10.6
Carpi
10.6
Genoa
10.2
Udinese
10.2
Bologna
10.1
AC Milan
10.1
Palermo
10.0
Atalanta
9.8
Empoli
9.7
Torino
9.3
Napoli
9.0
Juventus
8.5
Fiorentina
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Juventus
5.8
AC Milan
5.8
Inter
5.7
Atalanta
5.7
Fiorentina
5.7
Empoli
5.6
Palermo
5.5
AS Roma
5.5
Frosinone
5.3
Sampdoria
5.2
Sassuolo
5.1
Torino
5.1
Genoa
5.1
Udinese
5.0
Hellas Verona
5.0
Bologna
5.0
Chievo
4.9
Lazio
4.8
Carpi
4.6
Napoli
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sassuolo
33.5
Empoli
33.4
Genoa
33.3
Atalanta
33.2
AC Milan
32.4
Frosinone
32.0
Fiorentina
31.9
Chievo
31.7
Juventus
31.5
Carpi
31.0
Hellas Verona
30.7
Lazio
30.6
Udinese
30.4
Sampdoria
30.4
Palermo
30.2
Torino
30.1
Bologna
28.3
AS Roma
28.3
Inter
26.7
Napoli
25.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.2%
Under 3.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.5%
Under 21.5
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Genoa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.57
0.50
0.40
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.38
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.73
0.20
0.40
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.05
0.38
1.00
0.45
1.10
0.30
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
0.71
0.43
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Genoa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.71
1.00
0.70
0.55
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.00
0.33
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.64
1.80
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.62
1.09
0.27
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
-
-
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
1.29
0.29
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
62% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Genoa · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lorenzo Colombo33%
Alessandro Marcandalli33%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Vitinha0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leo Østigård67%
Morten Frendrup0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morten Frendrup33%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy33%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitinha67%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
FRO (33)
€84m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
Genoa's squad is €148m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€182m vs €330m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
FRO (8)
€34m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
EMP (9)
€11m
Genoa's attack is €71m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€54m vs €125m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
FRO (11)
€27m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
Genoa's midfield is €63m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€44m vs €107m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
HV (15)
€30m
FRO (14)
€24m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
Genoa's defence is €14m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€84m vs €98m).
Italy: Serie A 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
Napoli
AS Roma
Inter
Sassuolo
AC Milan
Lazio
Empoli
Torino
Atalanta
Bologna
Sampdoria
Udinese
Palermo
Frosinone
Hellas Verona