Genoa’s recent five matches have been a struggle, with four consecutive defeats and a 0-1 loss to Lazio, yet the model still favors a home win at 36%. Frosinone, fresh from a 3-0 victory over Fiorentina, shows a slightly better away form, scoring 2.09 and conceding 1.09 against similar opposition. The expected total goals are 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% chance. The model’s pick remains a Genoa win, while the draw probability sits at 29% and the away win at 35%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.8% with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6% with an 8% edge, Under 5.5 at 95.1% with a 1% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 94.4%. These figures highlight the model’s confidence in a low-scoring, home-side victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Genoa win
33.4%
Avg Implied 51.3% · @ 1.83
Edge
-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathonbet
1.88
William Hil
1.85
Dafabet
1.85
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.41
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.62
Marathonbet
3.54
Unibet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Dafabet
3.45
Frosinone win
36.9%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.46
Edge
+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Betano
4.60
Dafabet
4.60
1xBet
4.56
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Genoa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.47
1.47
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.69
1.00
1.88
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.64
0.93
2.00
1.00
1.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Frosinone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.87
2.07
0.80
2.00
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
2.23
0.95
2.36
0.82
2.09
1.09
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.67
1.67
0.67
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.38+4.1%
Under 1.5
27.7%
@ 2.96-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.09
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
10Bet
2.90
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.21+2.2%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.67-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.9%
@ 4.00+0.5%
Under 3.5
76.1%
@ 1.23-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.00
Unibet
3.95
1xBet
3.76
Under
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.99+5.2%
No
48.1%
@ 1.74-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betano
2.00
No
1xBet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 6.14+6.9%
0-0
9.6%@ 7.69+3.9%
0-1
9.4%@ 9.77+4.8%
1-0
8.8%@ 5.50+0.7%
1-2
8.2%@ 13.63+5.0%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.03+2.2%
0-2
6.8%@ 20.89+4.7%
2-0
6.1%@ 7.30-0.0%
Genoa goals ↓
Frosinone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.4%
6.8%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.8%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.7%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Genoa goals (down), columns = Frosinone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Genoa is 0.05 points better than Frosinone in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Genoa is 0.17 goals better than Frosinone in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Genoa is 0.28 goals better than Frosinone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Genoa
For 3.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 14.1 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Frosinone
For 6.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genoa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.9
9.3
4.1
4.5
3.7
27.2
27.5
27.0
vs Stronger (27)
9.0
9.1
8.8
3.6
4.0
3.2
26.4
27.5
25.2
vs Similar (23)
8.3
6.5
9.8
4.6
5.1
4.2
28.2
27.5
28.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
25%
44%
68%
80%
56%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
65%
75%
56%
32%
20%
44%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Frosinone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.8
4.5
4.4
4.6
30.4
28.8
32.0
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
15.0
13.0
5.0
4.0
6.0
34.0
33.0
35.0
vs Similar (37)
9.9
10.1
9.7
4.4
4.2
4.6
30.1
28.3
31.6
vs Weaker (11)
10.6
11.1
9.8
4.6
4.9
4.2
30.5
29.1
33.0
% over line
59%
54%
64%
70%
68%
72%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
41%
46%
36%
30%
32%
28%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Genoa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.6%
@ 1.95-10.4%
Under 9.5
63.4%
@ 1.73+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.95
Under
Unibet
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.4%
Under 3.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.6%
Under 21.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Genoa or Draw
58.6%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.19
Edge
-20.4%
33%
30%
37%
covers Genoa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Genoa or Frosinone
71.3%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.7%
33%
30%
37%
covers Genoa + Frosinone
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Draw or Frosinone
70.0%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.96
Edge
+22.1%
33%
30%
37%
covers Draw + Frosinone
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.02
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Genoa over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
@ 1.21-7.4%
Under
30.9%
@ 3.97+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.11
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.92
Genoa over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
@ 2.07-12.3%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.71+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Genoa over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
@ 4.38-9.7%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.18+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Genoa over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
@ 9.93-6.2%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.70
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Frosinone over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
@ 1.60+17.9%
Under
24.2%
@ 2.20-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.35
Marathonbet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Frosinone over/under 1.5
Over
41.5%
@ 4.08+18.5%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.21-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Unibet
1.20
Frosinone over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
@ 11.61+9.0%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.03-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Frosinone over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
@ 27.25+2.0%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.01-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Genoa, so a minus line means Genoa give that many goals of a start and Frosinone receive them. At -1, Genoa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Genoa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Genoa)
Genoa -2
4.1%
@ 7.21-8.4%
Draw -2
8.7%
@ 5.10-8.9%
Frosinone +2
87.2%
@ 1.28+17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Unibet
6.40
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Away
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Genoa)
Genoa -1
12.8%
@ 3.30-14.4%
Draw -1
17.2%
@ 3.35-9.5%
Frosinone +1
70.0%
@ 1.94+23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Away
Unibet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Handicap +1 (Genoa)
Genoa +1
58.6%
@ 1.19-17.3%
Draw +1
21.0%
@ 5.74+5.3%
Frosinone -1
20.3%
@ 10.82+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
Handicap +2 (Genoa)
Genoa +2
79.7%
@ 1.03-11.0%
Draw +2
12.7%
@ 14.00+6.0%
Frosinone -2
7.7%
@ 35.00+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Genoa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.19
0.81
0.25
0.75
0.12
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.50
0.86
0.43
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Frosinone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
0.73
0.33
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.36
0.82
0.18
1.00
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.1%
@ 1.45+9.7%
Under 0.5
25.9%
@ 2.64-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
William Hil
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 3.19+6.8%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.33-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Marathonbet
3.22
Under
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 8.39+1.1%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.06-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.0%
@ 1.88-5.5%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.84+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
10Bet
1.83
Under
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Genoa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
@ 5.61-3.9%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.11+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.65
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Genoa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 11.25-6.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Frosinone over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
@ 2.81+15.2%
Under
51.7%
@ 1.39-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Frosinone over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.8%
@ 10.08+3.5%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.03-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Frosinone over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Genoa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.87
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.88
0.75
1.12
0.38
0.62
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Frosinone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Frosinone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.47
1.33
0.47
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.32
0.59
1.55
0.64
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.7%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Under 0.5
20.3%
@ 3.36-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.40
William Hil
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
@ 2.37+9.0%
Under 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.54-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.0%
@ 5.50+6.0%
Under 2.5
77.0%
@ 1.12-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.3%
@ 1.62-6.0%
Under
48.7%
@ 2.18+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Genoa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.4%
@ 4.03-6.6%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.21+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Genoa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
@ 8.75-7.5%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.05+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Frosinone over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.2%
@ 2.30+14.9%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.56-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Frosinone over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
@ 7.77+10.9%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.05-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Frosinone over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.9%
@ 13.00-0.3%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.01+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
Under 5.5
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+1.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Over 19.5 fouls
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
+9.7%
Under 4.5
87.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-0.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.06
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-1.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.11
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
+3.9%
Away +2 handicap
87.2%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+17.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-3.5%
Under 11.5 corners
83.6%
1.28
Unibet
1.28
-
-
-
-
+11.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.21
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
-
+6.6%
Away under 2.5 goals
82.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-9.0%
Over 21.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+7.7%
Home +2 handicap
79.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-11.0%
Over 2.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-10.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-6.0%
Under 3.5
76.1%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-0.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
75.8%
1.60
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
+17.9%
Under 5.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
74.7%
1.45
Unibet
1.45
-
-
-
-
+11.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.1%
1.45
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+9.7%
Over 1.5
72.3%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
+4.1%
Home or Away
71.3%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.29
-1.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Genoa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lorenzo Colombo33%
Alessandro Marcandalli33%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Vitinha0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leo Østigård67%
Morten Frendrup0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morten Frendrup33%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy33%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitinha67%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Frosinone
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Raimondo67%
A. Terzić33%
G. Kvernadze33%
Gabriele Bracaglia33%
Matteo Cichella33%
Romano Schmid0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giacomo Calò0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
P. Masini0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
G. Calvani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Romano Schmid67%
G. Calvani67%
A. Raimondo33%
Gabriele Bracaglia33%
P. Masini25%
A. Terzić0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giacomo Calò0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
G. Kvernadze0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
Matteo Cichella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. Kvernadze67%
Giacomo Calò33%
A. Raimondo33%
Gabriele Bracaglia33%
A. Terzić0%
Romano Schmid0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
P. Masini0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
G. Calvani0%
Matteo Cichella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Raimondo33%
Matteo Cichella33%
A. Terzić0%
Romano Schmid0%
A. Zerbin0%
Giacomo Calò0%
Giorgio Cittadini0%
I. Monterisi0%
A. Oyono0%
P. Masini0%
G. Kvernadze0%
L. Palmisani0%
S. Fini0%
G. Calvani0%
Gabriele Bracaglia0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Genoa's squad is €97m more valuable than Frosinone's (€182m vs €84m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Genoa's attack is €20m more valuable than Frosinone's (€54m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Genoa's midfield is €17m more valuable than Frosinone's (€44m vs €27m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Genoa's defence is €60m more valuable than Frosinone's (€84m vs €24m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina