Napoli's recent 2-game winning run is a notable storyline ahead of their clash with Genoa. However, the data suggests Napoli's away form is more concerning when facing weaker opponents, as they've averaged just 0.6 goals conceded in such matches. Genoa's home form has been equally unimpressive, particularly against stronger opponents, where they've averaged 1.86 goals conceded at home.
The model predicts an away win with a 52% probability, making it the favourite match result. Genoa has a 20% chance of winning, while a draw is 28% likely. The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.2% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Genoa's home form has seen them average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded, while Napoli's away form has seen them average 1.5 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The model's selections include Under 3.5 goals (76.8%), Over 21.5 fouls (76.1%), Over 1.5 goals (71.5% with a 4% edge), and Under 9.5 corners (71.0% with a 19% edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Napoli secured a 0-2 away win, extending their three-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” had a 52 % probability and the outcome matched the forecast. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the favoured result. All of the model’s selections hit: “Under 7.5” at 99.7 %, “Under 6.5” at 98.8 %, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 98.8 %, “Home under 3.5 goals” at 98.7 %, “Home under 2.5 2H goals” at 97.6 %, “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 97.2 %, “Under 5.5” at 96.5 % and “Away under 2.5 2H goals” at 95.7 %. The match lived up to the model’s high-confidence, low-risk predictions.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Genoa win✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.19
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.60
1xBet
4.43
Betfair
4.40
Pinnacle
4.39
Marathonbet
4.33
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 3.16
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Napoli win✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 2.02
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.09
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
888Sport
2.05
Dafabet
2.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Genoa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.33
1.47
1.47
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.71
1.14
1.86
0.57
1.57
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.00
1.75
1.12
1.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.03
1.67
1.07
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.55
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.74
1.80
0.80
1.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.44+6.0%
Under 1.5
28.9%
@ 2.70-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Under
10Bet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.0%
@ 2.41+4.6%
Under 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.57-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.47
SBO
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.9%
@ 4.60+2.4%
Under 3.5
77.1%
@ 1.19-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.60
Unibet
4.60
888Sport
4.60
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
@ 2.05+1.9%
No
52.6%
@ 1.71-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Bet365
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
No
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.78+5.3%
0-1
12.4%@ 5.61+4.3%
0-2 ✓
10.6%@ 8.12+5.0%
0-0
10.0%@ 7.21+3.6%
1-2
9.3%@ 8.62+4.0%
1-0
6.5%@ 8.87+1.4%
0-3
5.5%@ 16.07+2.6%
2-1
5.3%@ 13.51+1.9%
Genoa goals ↓
Napoli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
12%
11%
5.5%
2.1%
1
6.5%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.9%
2
3.4%
5.3%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
3
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Genoa goals (down), columns = Napoli goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Genoa is 0.92 points worse than Napoli in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Genoa is 0.45 goals worse than Napoli in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Genoa is 0.39 goals worse than Napoli in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Genoa is 10.2 percentage points worse than Napoli in terms of average possession (49% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Genoa
For 4.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 15.2 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Napoli
For 6.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genoa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.9
9.4
4.3
4.8
3.8
27.6
27.9
27.3
vs Stronger (24)
9.2
9.2
9.1
4.0
4.6
3.4
27.0
28.7
25.4
vs Similar (26)
8.2
6.7
9.6
4.6
5.0
4.2
28.1
27.2
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
24%
44%
74%
88%
60%
90%
96%
84%
% under line
66%
76%
56%
26%
12%
40%
10%
4%
16%
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.8
8.0
3.3
2.9
3.6
23.5
23.9
23.2
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
7.0
-
7.0
vs Similar (16)
7.2
7.2
7.2
3.3
2.5
4.1
23.4
23.1
23.8
vs Weaker (33)
8.8
9.5
8.2
3.3
3.1
3.5
24.1
24.2
23.9
% over line
30%
32%
28%
38%
28%
48%
64%
68%
60%
% under line
70%
68%
72%
62%
72%
52%
36%
32%
40%
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.0
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Udinese
9.4
Bologna
9.4
Inter
9.2
Atalanta
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
8.9
Fiorentina
8.9
Parma
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Torino
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.7
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.5
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Udinese
3.8
Juventus
3.6
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.5
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.8
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.8
Cagliari
27.7
Genoa
27.6
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.0
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.5
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.1
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
29.0%
@ 2.44-9.1%
Under 9.5
71.0%
@ 1.50+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.7%
@ 2.29+17.8%
Under 3.5
41.3%
@ 1.58-17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.42
Superbet
2.30
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.9%
@ 1.33+7.7%
Under 21.5
24.1%
@ 2.85-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Genoa or Draw✗ Miss
49.9%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.80
Edge
-2.6%
20%
28%
52%
covers Genoa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.93
SBO
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Genoa or Napoli✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied 70.4% · @ 1.34
Edge
+1.0%
20%
28%
52%
covers Genoa + Napoli
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Draw or Napoli✓ Hit
78.7%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
+1.7%
20%
28%
52%
covers Draw + Napoli
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Genoa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
59.2%
@ 1.60+1.2%
Under
40.8%
@ 2.22-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
BetVictor
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.22
Genoa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.7%
@ 4.05-0.4%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.21+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.37
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
BetVictor
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Genoa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 11.96-1.8%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
13.50
Marathonbet
13.50
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Genoa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 30.17-1.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
36.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Napoli over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.7%
@ 1.26+3.9%
Under
22.3%
@ 3.55-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
10Bet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.80
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Napoli over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 2.31+3.6%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.58-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
888Sport
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.57
Napoli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 5.16+1.0%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.14-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Napoli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 12.36-1.1%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Under
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Genoa, so a minus line means Genoa give that many goals of a start and Napoli receive them. At -1, Genoa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Genoa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Genoa)Actual: Napoli
Genoa -2
1.9%
@ 32.33-1.0%
Draw -2
5.6%
@ 13.00-1.6%
Napoli +2
92.5%
@ 1.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Away
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Genoa)Actual: Napoli
Genoa -1
7.5%
@ 9.73-1.6%
Draw -1
13.8%
@ 5.24-3.1%
Napoli +1
78.7%
@ 1.20+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Draw
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap +1 (Genoa)Actual: Napoli
Genoa +1
49.9%
@ 1.82-0.1%
Draw +1
23.9%
@ 3.47-2.2%
Napoli -1
26.2%
@ 3.80+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Draw
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Away
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Unibet
3.60
Handicap +2 (Genoa)Actual: Draw
Genoa +2
73.8%
@ 1.23+0.3%
Draw +2
15.7%
@ 5.69-0.3%
Napoli -2
10.5%
@ 8.63+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.30
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Genoa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.86
0.29
0.86
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.43
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.37
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.51+8.5%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 2.51-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.53
SBO
1.52
BetVictor
1.52
Under
10Bet
2.65
William Hil
2.62
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.57
SBO
2.56
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.2%
@ 3.37+6.3%
Under 1.5
65.8%
@ 1.30-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 9.20+0.9%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.04-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.83+4.7%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.39-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.90
Superbet
2.82
Unibet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Genoa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 9.75-2.2%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Genoa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 32.50-1.8%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Napoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.5%
@ 1.99+2.6%
Under
50.5%
@ 1.76-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Napoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 5.99-1.4%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.30
Unibet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.60
Under
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Napoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 15.75-3.2%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Genoa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.86
0.86
1.00
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.62
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.37
1.00
0.30
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.3%
Under 1.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Genoa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Genoa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.5%
1.04
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.04
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.05
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
88.4%
1.14
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.09
10Bet
1.13
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
81.0%
1.26
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.9%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
78.7%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.7%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
1.58
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
+18.9%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
77.7%
1.26
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
77.3%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.1%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
1.14
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
73.8%
1.23
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.4%
1.34
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.1%
1.44
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betfair
1.44
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
71.0%
1.50
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.44
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.51
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.53
SBO
1.52
BetVictor
1.52
+8.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Genoa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lorenzo Colombo33%
Alessandro Marcandalli33%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Vitinha0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leo Østigård67%
Morten Frendrup0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morten Frendrup33%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy33%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitinha67%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Napoli · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott McTominay29%
Alisson Santos27%
Rasmus Højlund26%
Kevin De Bruyne24%
Frank Anguissa18%
Antonio Vergara17%
Romelu Lukaku14%
Lorenzo Lucca9%
David Neres9%
Amir Rrahmani8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Matteo Politano5%
Noa Lang4%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Eljif Elmas2%
Alex Meret0%
Juan Jesus0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Jesus30%
Antonio Vergara17%
Noa Lang16%
Romelu Lukaku14%
David Neres13%
Amir Rrahmani12%
Matteo Politano12%
Eljif Elmas12%
Mathías Olivera9%
Alex Meret8%
Stanislav Lobotka8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Alessandro Buongiorno7%
Alisson Santos7%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Kevin De Bruyne5%
Rasmus Højlund5%
Frank Anguissa5%
Lorenzo Lucca5%
Scott McTominay2%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Neres17%
Antonio Vergara17%
Kevin De Bruyne14%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Leonardo Spinazzola10%
Matteo Politano10%
Eljif Elmas10%
Alex Meret8%
Noa Lang8%
Giovane8%
Scott McTominay7%
Pasquale Mazzocchi6%
Frank Anguissa5%
Amir Rrahmani4%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Mathías Olivera3%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Vanja Milinković-Savić3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Alessandro Buongiorno2%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Sam Beukema0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Alisson Santos0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Scott McTominay36%
Alisson Santos27%
Frank Anguissa18%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Matteo Politano10%
Antonio Vergara6%
Leonardo Spinazzola5%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Alex Meret0%
Noa Lang0%
David Neres0%
Kevin De Bruyne0%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Amir Rrahmani0%
Eljif Elmas0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Sam Beukema0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Stanislav Lobotka0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Genoa's squad is €278m less valuable than Napoli's (€182m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Genoa's attack is €152m less valuable than Napoli's (€54m vs €206m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Genoa's midfield is €57m less valuable than Napoli's (€44m vs €101m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Genoa's defence is €68m less valuable than Napoli's (€84m vs €152m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina