PythiaFootballBETA
This Belgium: Jupiler Pro League match on May 31st is finely balanced, with Gent and Genk separated by just a single percentage point in the predicted outcome. Genk's recent win over KVC Westerlo has set them up well, but Gent's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, including a draw against IFK Goteborg, suggests they will be a tough opponent. The model predicts a 41% chance of Genk winning, while Gent has a 31% chance of taking the three points. A draw is also possible, with a 28% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 26% of the time. Gent's home form is a concern, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded at home, particularly against similar opponents. Genk, on the other hand, has been scoring an average of 1.6 goals away from home, but conceding the same amount. The model's selection is Genk to win, with suggested picks including Over 1.5 (76.5% chance of hitting) and Under 3.5 (71.2% chance of hitting). The probabilities for each outcome are: Gent win (31%), draw (28%), Genk win (41%).
The draw between Gent and Genk saw the pre-match favourite, Genk, come up short, as the model's selection, an away win, was incorrect. The final score of 1-1 confirmed the actual result of a draw. The model's call was wrong, as the pre-match probability of a Genk win was 41%. The model's selection, an away win, had a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection, an away win, missed, while the suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a probability of 76.5%, and the suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with a probability of 71.2%.
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.10 | 2.30 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.41 | 1.18 | 1.56 | 0.89 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Genk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.37 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.73 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.82 | 1.45 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1.11 | 0.89 | 1.89 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Genk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 13% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
GentGenkGent| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 21.4 | 21.7 | 21.1 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 11.0 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 21.3 | 19.7 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (22) | 10.1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 20.6 | 21.2 | 20.0 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 10.3 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 22.2 | 22.8 | 21.6 |
| % over line | 54% | 44% | 64% | 40% | 48% | 32% | 48% | 52% | 44% |
| % under line | 46% | 56% | 36% | 60% | 52% | 68% | 52% | 48% | 56% |
Genk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 22.1 | 22.7 | 21.5 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 8.3 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 23.3 | 23.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 22.2 | 23.7 | 20.8 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 21.9 | 22.1 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 48% | 65% | 29% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 56% | 58% | 54% |
| % under line | 52% | 35% | 71% | 54% | 58% | 50% | 44% | 42% | 46% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/05/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 30/03/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 23/02/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 27/10/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 02/06/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/12/23 | A | 2-2 |
Gent| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 21/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
Genk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 19/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 | Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 | Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |