PythiaFootballBETA
The match between Gent and Union St. Gilloise is expected to be closely contested, with the away side's recent form taking centre stage. Union St. Gilloise drew with Zulte Waregem in their last outing, and they have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, having drawn with IFK Goteborg in their previous match.
The model predicts a 44% chance of an away win, with a 27% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a home win. The expected number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%.
Union St. Gilloise have been scoring 1 goal on average when playing away against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.17 goals. Gent, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.5 goals on average when playing at home, while conceding 1.17 goals.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, which has a 75.7% chance of being correct, and Over 1.5, which has a 72.6% chance of missing. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
The draw between Gent and Union St. Gilloise was a major upset, as the away team had been on a downward spiral, unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The win extends their run, but only just, as they came from a draw against Zulte Waregem. The final score was 0-0, a fitting result given the low-scoring nature of the game. The model's selection, an away win, was wrong, as it had only a 44% chance of success. The model's call was also contradicted by the pre-match favourite, Gent, who had a 27% chance of winning. The model's selection for the total goals was correct, however, as Under 3.5 goals hit with a 75.7% probability. Over 1.5 goals, on the other hand, missed with a 72.6% probability.
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.07 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | - | - | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.06 | 1.56 | 1.22 | 1.33 | 0.86 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 2.08 | 0.92 | 2.33 | 0.67 | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Union St. Gilloise| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 0.83 | 1.82 | 0.65 | 1.00 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 2.20 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.38 | 0.71 | 1.77 | 0.46 | 0.91 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Union St. Gilloise goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 10% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 14% | 9.0% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
GentUnion St. GilloiseGent| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.2 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 21.2 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 10.6 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 22.4 | 21.5 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.2 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 20.7 | 21.2 | 20.1 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 10.1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 23.1 | 23.7 | 22.4 |
| % over line | 53% | 42% | 65% | 38% | 44% | 32% | 49% | 54% | 43% |
| % under line | 47% | 58% | 35% | 62% | 56% | 68% | 51% | 46% | 57% |
Union St. Gilloise| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 21.6 | 21.4 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 17.0 | - | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (13) | 8.8 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 21.7 | 21.2 | 22.2 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 9.7 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 21.9 |
| % over line | 52% | 55% | 50% | 60% | 52% | 68% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| % under line | 48% | 45% | 50% | 40% | 48% | 32% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Union St. Gilloise| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
Gent| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.08 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 0.17 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Union St. Gilloise| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.40 | 1.24 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 0.75 | 0.29 | 1.15 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 76.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/08/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 25/05/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 05/04/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 26/12/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/12/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 0-0 |
Gent| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
Union St. Gilloise| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 | Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |