GO Ahead Eagles host Willem II on August 8th in the Netherlands Eredivisie. The home side's recent form has been concerning, with two straight defeats, including a 1-2 loss to NEC Nijmegen. However, they have a strong home record, averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded when facing opponents of similar strength.
Willem II, on the other hand, are coming off a win and have a decent away record, averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.5 conceded in similar strength matches. The model predicts a Home win as the favourite, with a 56% chance of success, while the away win and draw probabilities stand at 20% and 25% respectively.
The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 11.6% of the time. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.9% probability, suggesting a high-scoring match. The home side's home scoring and conceding form is strong, while Willem II's away scoring and conceding form is decent.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 (79.9%), Under 3.5 cards (73.4% with a 15% edge), and no other selections. The home win percentage is 56%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 20%.
The win extends their run, as GO Ahead Eagles secured a convincing 4-1 victory over Willem II, the actual result landing in favour of the model's selection. The model's call was correct, as it predicted a home win with a pre-match probability of 55%. The model's selection of a home win proved to be the correct call, as the favourites secured the win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with an 84% probability, while Under 3.5 cards was another hit, with a 73.4% probability. The most likely scores suggested by the model included 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, with 2-1 being the most probable.
GO Ahead Eagles| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.86 | 2.07 | 0.86 | 2.14 | 0.86 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.94 | 1.31 | 2.75 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Willem II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 0.90 | 1.38 | 1.06 | 1.93 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.59 | 0.90 | 1.38 | 1.06 | 1.85 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Willem II goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
GO Ahead Eagles
Willem II
GO Ahead Eagles| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.4 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 18.3 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 11.0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 18.6 | 19.0 | 18.1 |
| vs Similar (28) | 11.6 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 19.5 | 20.3 | 18.7 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 15.0 | - | 15.0 | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 14.0 | - | 14.0 |
| % over line | 64% | 71% | 58% | 34% | 25% | 42% | 24% | 29% | 19% |
| % under line | 36% | 29% | 42% | 66% | 75% | 58% | 76% | 71% | 81% |
Willem II| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 22.8 | 24.0 | 21.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (48) | 10.7 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 22.7 | 23.9 | 21.4 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 13.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 23.5 | 27.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 61% | 57% | 67% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 59% | 74% | 43% |
| % under line | 39% | 43% | 33% | 68% | 69% | 67% | 41% | 26% | 57% |
GO Ahead Eagles| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.29 | 1.36 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.71 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.81 | 0.44 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Willem II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1.14 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.76 | 0.45 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+43pp vs league) | |||||
GO Ahead Eagles| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.29 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.12 | 0.88 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Willem II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.79 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.83 | 0.45 | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.85 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | +3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 80.4% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +10.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 77.5% | 1.27 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | +5.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/08/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/04/22 | H | 4-0 | |
| 27/11/21 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/04/17 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/11/16 | H | 0-1 |
GO Ahead Eagles| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
Willem II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 4.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 14.0 | 100% | 2.2 | 25% | 23.8 | 50% | 136 | 61 | 21 | 54 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 53% |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 10.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 25% | 17.5 | 25% | 280 | 106 | 60 | 115 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 61% |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 75% | 75% | 75% | 11.8 | 75% | 2.3 | 0% | 17.8 | 25% | 229 | 93 | 43 | 93 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 4 | Ajax | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 10.0 | 33% | 4.5 | 100% | 21.3 | 67% | 173 | 95 | 15 | 63 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 5 | GO Ahead Eagles | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.0 | 50% | 2.0 | 0% | 17.2 | 25% | 22 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 49% |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 11.8 | 50% | 3.0 | 25% | 17.0 | 0% | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 45% |
| 7 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 10.7 | 67% | 3.0 | 67% | 26.3 | 100% | 54 | 22 | 5 | 26 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 57% |
| 8 | Twente | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.5 | 0% | 16.7 | 0% | 87 | 34 | 13 | 39 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 9 | Excelsior | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 10.3 | 67% | 2.0 | 0% | 16.3 | 0% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 10 | Groningen | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 8.8 | 25% | 2.8 | 25% | 19.8 | 50% | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 50% |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 10.5 | 50% | 2.7 | 33% | 14.5 | 0% | 50 | 24 | 6 | 20 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 3.5 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 2.7 | 0% | 23.0 | 50% | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.3 | 67% | 20.0 | 50% | 21 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 14 | Telstar | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 12.3 | 67% | 3.0 | 50% | 26.7 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 45% |
| 15 | Willem II | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.0 | 33% | 2.0 | 0% | 19.3 | 33% | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 11.2 | 50% | 2.0 | 0% | 20.5 | 75% | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 2.8 | - |
| 17 | Utrecht | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 75% | 10.8 | 75% | 4.7 | 67% | 29.5 | 100% | 61 | 33 | 14 | 15 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 47% |
| 18 | Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 10.8 | 75% | 1.7 | 0% | 20.5 | 25% | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 1.0 | 4.0 | - |