Guimaraes are expected to secure a win against Nacional, with a predicted score of 2-0, although the most likely score is a 1-1 draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.7. Guimaraes have been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1.75 goals and conceding 0.5 goals against weaker opponents, while Nacional concede an average of 1.5 goals when playing away against stronger opponents. Nacional have shown resilience away from home, scoring 0.7 goals on average.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 53% chance of success, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of an away win. The home win percentage is 53%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 21%. The model also suggests an Over 21.5 fouls selection with an 86.5% chance, an Over 1.5 selection with a 75.8% chance, an Over 3.5 cards selection with a 74.6% chance, and an Under 3.5 selection with a 72% chance.
Results analysis
The win extends Guimaraes’ recent form, a solitary triumph after four losses, while Nacional returns from a defeat. The model’s favourite was a home win with a 54 % probability, and it proved correct as Guimaraes edged Nacional 1-0. The predicted 2-goal total also materialised, matching the most likely score of 1-1 or 1-0. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.0 %, Under 6.5 at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5 %, Under 5.5 at 96.6 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5 %. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well, confirming the predicted outcome and the low-scoring nature of the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Guimaraes win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.66
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.69
Dafabet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.79
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.02
1xBet
3.99
Betano
3.90
Dafabet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Nacional win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.11
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.50
Pinnacle
5.42
Dafabet
5.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.44
1.00
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
3.14
0.33
2.67
1.25
3.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
1.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
1.07
2.12
0.62
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.33
1.43
0.93
1.06
1.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.50
0.83
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.24
1.88
0.88
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.4%
@ 1.27+2.1%
Under 1.5
24.6%
@ 3.50-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.73
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.5%
@ 1.90-0.3%
Under 2.5
50.5%
@ 1.88+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.94
SBO
1.91
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
@ 3.22-1.4%
Under 3.5
72.5%
@ 1.31+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Unibet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
@ 1.84+0.7%
No
48.8%
@ 1.88-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
No
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.74+5.9%
1-0 ✓
10.9%@ 6.29+3.8%
2-0
10.3%@ 7.44+4.3%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.50+3.8%
0-0
8.2%@ 9.46+3.5%
3-0
5.9%@ 12.23+2.2%
3-1
5.5%@ 12.57+2.0%
0-1
5.5%@ 12.30+1.9%
Guimaraes goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
5.5%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.9%
5.5%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guimaraes goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.24
Arouca
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Guimaraes is 0.24 points better than Nacional in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Nacional
1.09
Moreirense
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Guimaraes is 0.06 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Guimaraes is 0.18 goals worse than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Guimaraes is 5.3 percentage points better than Nacional in terms of average possession (51% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Guimaraes
For 4.6 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
For 5.0 · Against 6.8 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.4
7.8
5.1
5.4
4.7
29.0
28.4
29.6
vs Stronger (11)
8.0
8.2
7.8
5.6
7.0
4.5
28.3
28.6
28.0
vs Similar (17)
9.6
10.7
8.4
5.5
5.7
5.4
29.7
27.9
31.8
vs Weaker (22)
8.2
9.0
7.2
4.5
4.6
4.3
28.8
28.8
28.7
% over line
40%
56%
22%
70%
65%
75%
90%
88%
91%
% under line
60%
44%
78%
30%
35%
25%
10%
12%
9%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
9.8
5.2
6.1
4.5
27.1
26.6
27.5
vs Stronger (20)
10.5
11.1
9.9
4.8
5.9
4.0
26.9
27.6
26.3
vs Similar (29)
10.3
10.8
9.7
5.7
6.2
5.1
27.2
26.1
28.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
58%
58%
58%
68%
83%
54%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
32%
17%
46%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.4
Benfica
10.1
Academico Viseu
9.9
Sporting CP
9.9
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.1
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Estrela
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Santa Clara
8.9
Alverca
8.8
Guimaraes
8.7
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.5
FC Porto
5.4
Guimaraes
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Sporting CP
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.1
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Nacional
27.2
Rio Ave
27.0
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.6
Arouca
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.1
SC Braga
24.3
Maritimo
24.1
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.0%
@ 1.75-2.9%
Under 9.5
50.0%
@ 1.97+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
74.7%
Under 3.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.3%
Under 21.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Guimaraes or Draw✓ Hit
81.0%
Avg Implied 80.8% · @ 1.16
Edge
+0.2%
54%
26%
20%
covers Guimaraes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Guimaraes or Nacional✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-3.6%
54%
26%
20%
covers Guimaraes + Nacional
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Nacional✗ Miss
47.0%
Avg Implied 43.6% · @ 2.15
Edge
+3.4%
54%
26%
20%
covers Draw + Nacional
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.7%
@ 1.15-2.2%
Under
21.3%
@ 4.89+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Guimaraes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 1.78-6.9%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.97+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Guimaraes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.41-7.0%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.28+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.59
Betfair
3.50
888Sport
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Under
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Guimaraes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 7.44-5.4%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.07+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
8.00
Superbet
7.20
1xBet
6.95
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Nacional over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
56.5%
@ 1.58-2.4%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.27+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
10Bet
2.35
888Sport
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.27
Nacional over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.83-4.0%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.23+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.06
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Superbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Nacional over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 10.79-3.5%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Nacional over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 28.50-2.4%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
32.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Guimaraes, so a minus line means Guimaraes give that many goals of a start and Nacional receive them. At -1, Guimaraes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Guimaraes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Guimaraes)Actual: Nacional
Guimaraes -2
11.8%
@ 5.52-4.4%
Draw -2
16.7%
@ 4.61-2.7%
Nacional +2
71.6%
@ 1.38+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Superbet
5.25
Draw
10Bet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Handicap -1 (Guimaraes)Actual: Draw
Guimaraes -1
28.4%
@ 2.78-3.8%
Draw -1
24.6%
@ 3.44-1.5%
Nacional +1
47.0%
@ 2.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Away
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Bet365
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Handicap +1 (Guimaraes)Actual: Guimaraes
Guimaraes +1
81.0%
@ 1.15+3.9%
Draw +1
12.7%
@ 6.07-2.0%
Nacional -1
6.3%
@ 10.69-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
10.00
Handicap +2 (Guimaraes)Actual: Guimaraes
Guimaraes +2
93.7%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Draw +2
4.8%
@ 13.50-2.1%
Nacional -2
1.5%
@ 34.67-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.44
0.31
0.50
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.57
0.00
0.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.44
0.20
0.20
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.36
0.75
0.25
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.36
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (12)
0.00
0.58
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.62
0.50
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.4%
@ 1.37-1.7%
Under 0.5
33.6%
@ 2.92+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.4%
@ 2.74-3.6%
Under 1.5
69.6%
@ 1.41+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.85
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 6.64-4.5%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.08+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betano
6.60
Superbet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Under
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.3%
@ 1.70-8.3%
Under
53.7%
@ 2.05+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 4.52-9.2%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.17+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 11.00-6.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.2%
@ 2.77+5.7%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.40-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Under
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 9.94-0.8%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.03+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 45.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.69
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.33
0.80
0.40
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.71
1.38
0.38
0.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
1.07
0.50
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.92
0.83
0.67
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.59
1.25
0.38
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.1%
@ 1.23-0.3%
Under 0.5
24.9%
@ 3.79+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.8%
@ 2.12-5.3%
Under 1.5
61.2%
@ 1.67+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.15
Superbet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.49-4.2%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.18+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
888Sport
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.4%
@ 1.49-7.9%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.47+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.42
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 3.25-10.1%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.29+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.26
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 8.30-6.7%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Superbet
8.70
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.5%
@ 2.26+3.4%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.57-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 7.47-0.3%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.40
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 20.75-2.2%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.7%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.17
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.29
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
-
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.0%
1.16
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.18
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.0%
1.15
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.7%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.7%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.1%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.4%
1.36
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.5%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.0%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
+7.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Guimaraes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu25%
Alioune Ndoye25%
Gustavo Silva25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Tony Strata0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Rivas50%
Gustavo Silva50%
Miguel Nogueira50%
Gonçalo Nogueira25%
Thiago Balieiro25%
Tony Strata25%
Oumar Camara25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Nogueira50%
Tony Strata25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Oumar Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alioune Ndoye75%
Gustavo Silva50%
Samu25%
Tony Strata25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
Nacional
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Guimaraes's squad is €26m more valuable than Nacional's (€46m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Guimaraes's attack is €16m more valuable than Nacional's (€22m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Guimaraes's midfield is €6m more valuable than Nacional's (€11m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Guimaraes's defence is €4m more valuable than Nacional's (€12m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia