HNK Cibalia are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 71 % chance of a home win and a 20 % chance of a draw, leaving only 9 % for Kustosija. The prediction hinges on Cibalia’s strong home form - unbeaten in their last five matches - against Kustosija’s struggles away, where they average only 0.5 goals scored and concede 1.79. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, but the most likely total is 2 goals, with a 24 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Cibalia, a 13.7 % chance. The model’s suggested picks mirror this dominance: Away under 3.5 goals (99.5 %), Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.4 %), Home +2 handicap (97.4 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.9 %), Under 5.5 (93.2 %), Home or Draw (90.6 %) and Home +1 handicap (90.6 %). These selections underline the expectation that Cibalia will control the match and keep the scoreline within a modest range.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
HNK Cibalia win
66.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kustosija win
10.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HNK Cibalia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.00
1.82
0.65
1.31
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.60
1.00
1.82
0.65
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kustosija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.53
1.47
0.67
1.60
vs Stronger (29)
1.10
1.52
1.57
1.43
0.67
1.60
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.9%
No
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.0%
2-0
15.2%
1-1
10.5%
0-0
10.4%
3-0
9.1%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
5.1%
0-1
4.4%
HNK Cibalia goals ↓
Kustosija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
4.4%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
1
16%
11%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
2
15%
8.6%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
3
9.1%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
4
4.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Cibalia goals (down), columns = Kustosija goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
HNK Cibalia is 0.74 points better than Kustosija in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.02).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
HNK Cibalia is 0.68 goals better than Kustosija in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
HNK Cibalia is 0.59 goals better than Kustosija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HNK Cibalia or Draw
90.0%
Avg Implied -
66%
24%
10%
covers HNK Cibalia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia or Kustosija
76.4%
Avg Implied -
66%
24%
10%
covers HNK Cibalia + Kustosija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kustosija
33.6%
Avg Implied -
66%
24%
10%
covers Draw + Kustosija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 0.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HNK Cibalia, so a minus line means HNK Cibalia give that many goals of a start and Kustosija receive them. At -1, HNK Cibalia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HNK Cibalia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HNK Cibalia)
HNK Cibalia -2
19.1%
Draw -2
21.1%
Kustosija +2
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (HNK Cibalia)
HNK Cibalia -1
40.2%
Draw -1
26.2%
Kustosija +1
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (HNK Cibalia)
HNK Cibalia +1
90.0%
Draw +1
7.5%
Kustosija -1
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (HNK Cibalia)
HNK Cibalia +2
97.5%
Draw +2
2.1%
Kustosija -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Cibalia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.88
0.24
0.77
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.43
0.88
0.24
0.77
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kustosija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (29)
0.45
0.52
0.71
0.57
0.20
0.47
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.7%
Under 0.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.2%
Under 1.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.7%
Under 2.5
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Cibalia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.94
0.41
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.57
0.94
0.41
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kustosija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.87
0.93
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (29)
0.66
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.47
1.13
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.3%
Under 1.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.9%
Under 2.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
HNK Cibalia and Kustosija have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
HNK Cibalia and Kustosija have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
HNK Cibalia and Kustosija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
HNK Cibalia and Kustosija have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace