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HNK Cibalia vs Sesvete Result & Analysis

Date: 14/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-1
HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
Vs
44%
31%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sesvete
Sesvete
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

HNK Cibalia win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sesvete win✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L10W11D31W13L31W02L14L30W01LA·JAR02/06H·CRO12/08A·DUB19/08H·JAR26/08A·VUK02/09H·SOL10/09A·SIB18/09H·ZRI23/09A·ORI30/09H·BSK07/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.101.500.881.001.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.281.101.500.881.001.38
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SesveteSesvete

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L02L12L10W10W22D11DH·DUG12/08A·CRO20/08H·DUB28/08A·JAR02/09H·VUK08/09A·SOL16/09H·SIB23/09A·ZRI29/09H·ORI06/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.601.000.751.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.671.000.601.000.751.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.1%
Under 1.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.0%
Under 2.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.5%
Under 3.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
13.3%
0-0
12.7%
2-0
9.3%
0-1 ✓
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.5%
HNK Cibalia goals ↓
Sesvete goals →
01234
013%8.9%4.5%1.3%0.3%
113%14%5.8%1.7%0.4%
29.3%8.3%3.7%1.1%0.2%
34.0%3.6%1.6%0.5%0.1%
41.3%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Cibalia goals (down), columns = Sesvete goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
HNK Cibalia is 0.15 points worse than Sesvete in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.27).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Solin
1.00
Kustosija
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
HNK Cibalia is 0.03 goals better than Sesvete in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.09).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
HNK Cibalia is 0.48 goals worse than Sesvete in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.24).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L20W02L00D01L12L10W00DA·JAR02/06H·CRO12/08A·DUB19/08H·JAR26/08A·VUK02/09H·SOL10/09A·SIB18/09H·ZRI23/09A·ORI30/09H·BSK07/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.400.500.250.140.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.340.380.500.250.150.54
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SesveteSesvete

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D01L01L10W10W00D01L11DH·DUG12/08A·CRO20/08H·DUB28/08A·JAR02/09H·VUK08/09A·SOL16/09H·SIB23/09A·ZRI29/09H·ORI06/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.440.400.400.250.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.330.440.400.400.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D10W11D11D31W01L02L20W01LA·JAR02/06H·CRO12/08A·DUB19/08H·JAR26/08A·VUK02/09H·SOL10/09A·SIB18/09H·ZRI23/09A·ORI30/09H·BSK07/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.701.000.620.860.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.930.721.000.620.850.85
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SesveteSesvete

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D01L02L00D10W21W00DH·DUG12/08A·CRO20/08H·DUB28/08A·JAR02/09H·VUK08/09A·SOL16/09H·SIB23/09A·ZRI29/09H·ORI06/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.560.200.600.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.330.560.200.600.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
HNK Cibalia's squad is €2m less valuable than Sesvete's (€2m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
HNK Cibalia and Sesvete have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HNK Cibalia and Sesvete have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
HNK Cibalia and Sesvete have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
HC wins
0
Draws
0
SES wins

Head-to-head

HNK Cibalia vs Sesvete · H/A from HC
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HHC Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo0-1
30/09/23AOrijent 1919 Vs HC0-3
23/09/23HHC Vs Zrinski Jurjevac1-4
18/09/23ASibenik Vs HC2-0
10/09/23HHC Vs Solin3-1
02/09/23AVukovar Vs HC3-1
26/08/23HHC Vs Jarun3-1
19/08/23ADubrava Zagreb Vs HC1-1
12/08/23HHC Vs Croatia Zmijavci1-0
02/06/23AJarun Vs HC2-1

SesveteSesvete

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/23HSES Vs Orijent 19191-1
29/09/23AZrinski Jurjevac Vs SES2-2
23/09/23HSES Vs Sibenik1-0
16/09/23ASolin Vs SES0-1
08/09/23HSES Vs Vukovar1-2
02/09/23AJarun Vs SES2-0
28/08/23HSES Vs Dubrava Zagreb0-1
20/08/23ACroatia Zmijavci Vs SES0-0
12/08/23HSES Vs Dugopolje0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.60
HomeWWWLL1.91
AwayLDLLW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%30%
AVG goals2.122.142.10
Over 1.5 %62%50%75%
Over 2.5 %36%41%30%
Over 3.5 %29%36%20%
Scored1.191.361.00
Conceded0.930.771.10
BTTS40%45%35%
Clean Sheet48%50%45%
Corners---
Cards---
Sesvete
Sesvete
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.00
HomeLLLWD0.80
AwayDLWD1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%20%25%
AVG goals1.671.601.75
Over 1.5 %44%40%50%
Over 2.5 %22%20%25%
Over 3.5 %11%0%25%
Scored0.670.600.75
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS33%40%25%
Clean Sheet33%20%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SibenikSibenik3382
79%
2.5
6818+50
2.6
73%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.10.5
-
2Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac3381
79%
2.5
5318+35
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.5
-
3VukovarVukovar3358
48%
1.8
5636+20
2.8
79%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.1
-
4SesveteSesvete3342
36%
1.3
3641-5
2.3
67%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.11.2
-
5JarunJarun3340
33%
1.2
3546-11
2.5
70%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193539
26%
1.1
3850-12
2.5
60%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.4
-
7Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3338
30%
1.2
3644-8
2.4
73%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.3
-
8DugopoljeDugopolje3337
24%
1.1
3845-7
2.5
82%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
9HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3337
33%
1.1
3757-20
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.7
-
10Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3336
24%
1.1
3948-9
2.6
76%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3334
21%
1.0
3044-14
2.2
64%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.3
-
12SolinSolin3324
12%
0.7
3350-17
2.5
73%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
13KustosijaKustosija20
0%
0.0
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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