HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance of Rijeka taking the points, 29% for a draw and 27% for Gorica. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability. Gorica, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.5 goals scored and concedes 1.0, while Rijeka, on the road to a weaker opponent, scores 1.75 and concedes 1.0. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (88.6%), Over 2.5 cards (84.5%), Under 11.5 corners (81.4%), Over 21.5 fouls (78.2%), Under 3.5 goals (76.8%), Under 10.5 corners (71.9%) and Over 1.5 goals (71.5% miss). The model’s selection for the match outcome is an away win, with home win at 27%, draw at 29%, and away win at 43%.

The pre-match favourite, an away win, failed to materialise as HNK Gorica edged HNK Rijeka 1-0, a result that surprised the model. The model had assigned a 43% probability to the away victory, yet the actual outcome was a home win. The final score of 1-0 matched the model’s predicted most likely score of 1-1? no, but the game ended 1-0. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore wrong. All suggested picks were settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88.6%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.5%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 81.4%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 78.2%, Under 3.5 hit at 76.8%, Under 10.5 corners hit at 71.9%, and Over 1.5 missed at 71.5%. The match delivered a tight home victory, extending Gorica’s recent form with a draw and a win.