The match between Hrvace and Dubrava Zagreb is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 38% and 34% respectively, while a draw is 28%. The expected total of 2.8 goals translates to an average of 2.8, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability. Hrvace, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.67 conceded, whereas Dubrava Zagreb, on the road, averages 0.93 scored and 1.27 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.1%), Under 5.5 (93.5%), Under 4.5 (84.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.5%), and Home +2 handicap (84.1%). Hrvace’s recent form shows five losses in a row, while Dubrava Zagreb has won three of their last five after two defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hrvace win
37.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb win
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hrvace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.29
1.14
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.29
2.00
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.69
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubrava Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubrava Zagreb
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.47
1.50
1.71
0.94
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.20
1.47
1.50
1.71
0.94
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.4%
Under 2.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.2%
Under 3.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
Hrvace goals ↓
Dubrava Zagreb goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.2%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.7%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.0%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hrvace goals (down), columns = Dubrava Zagreb goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Hrvace is 0.33 points worse than Dubrava Zagreb in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Hrvace is 0.09 goals worse than Dubrava Zagreb in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Hrvace is 0.06 goals worse than Dubrava Zagreb in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hrvace or Draw
65.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
34%
covers Hrvace + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hrvace or Dubrava Zagreb
72.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
34%
covers Hrvace + Dubrava Zagreb
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dubrava Zagreb
62.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
34%
covers Draw + Dubrava Zagreb
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hrvace over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
Under
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 1.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hrvace, so a minus line means Hrvace give that many goals of a start and Dubrava Zagreb receive them. At -1, Hrvace must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hrvace win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hrvace)
Hrvace -2
6.8%
Draw -2
11.5%
Dubrava Zagreb +2
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hrvace)
Hrvace -1
18.3%
Draw -1
19.5%
Dubrava Zagreb +1
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hrvace)
Hrvace +1
65.6%
Draw +1
18.4%
Dubrava Zagreb -1
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hrvace)
Hrvace +2
84.0%
Draw +2
10.3%
Dubrava Zagreb -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hrvace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.57
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.52
0.60
0.50
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubrava Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubrava Zagreb
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.64
0.86
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.83
0.64
0.86
0.38
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.7%
Under 0.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.8%
Under 1.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.2%
Under 2.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hrvace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.71
0.50
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.91
0.40
0.50
0.23
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubrava Zagreb) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubrava Zagreb
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.86
0.86
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.63
0.86
0.86
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.1%
Under 0.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubrava Zagreb over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Hrvace and Dubrava Zagreb have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Hrvace and Dubrava Zagreb have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Hrvace and Dubrava Zagreb have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Hrvace and Dubrava Zagreb have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija