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Ilirija vs Gorica Result & Analysis

Date: 09/11/2025
Time: 13:30
Final 1-1
Ilirija
Ilirija
Vs
25%
26%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gorica
Gorica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ilirija win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gorica win✗ Miss
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L13L12L11D22D22D11D12L25L11DH·TRI03/09A·DEK06/09H·SLO14/09A·TAB21/09H·RUD27/09A·BIS04/10H·KRK12/10A·NAF19/10H·DRA25/10A·BIL05/11
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.831.002.361.061.38
vs Stronger (8)0.623.000.503.750.752.25
vs Similar (21)1.101.481.201.801.001.18
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoricaGorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L11D03L22D03L11D12L13L12LH·BIS31/08A·NAF06/09H·BIL13/09A·BEL20/09H·BRI26/09A·TRI03/10H·SLO12/10A·RUD18/10H·KRK24/10A·DRA02/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.331.531.201.071.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.071.131.711.000.501.25
vs Weaker (15)1.531.531.381.381.711.71
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
8.2%
0-0
6.9%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
5.6%
1-0
5.6%
Ilirija goals ↓
Gorica goals →
01234
06.9%8.6%8.2%4.6%2.0%
15.6%12%9.6%5.4%2.3%
23.9%6.6%5.6%3.2%1.3%
31.5%2.6%2.2%1.2%0.5%
40.4%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilirija goals (down), columns = Gorica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Ilirija is 0.17 points better than Gorica in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 0.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Ilirija is 0.23 goals better than Gorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Ilirija is 0.23 goals worse than Gorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L13L01L00D02L20W01L02L01L10WH·TRI03/09A·DEK06/09H·SLO14/09A·TAB21/09H·RUD27/09A·BIS04/10H·KRK12/10A·NAF19/10H·DRA25/10A·BIL05/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.830.291.070.440.62
vs Stronger (8)0.251.500.501.750.001.25
vs Similar (21)0.380.620.200.800.550.45
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoricaGorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D01L01L11D02L11D12L02L01LH·BIS31/08A·NAF06/09H·BIL13/09A·BEL20/09H·BRI26/09A·TRI03/10H·SLO12/10A·RUD18/10H·KRK24/10A·DRA02/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.400.670.400.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.330.530.430.570.250.50
vs Weaker (15)0.470.800.380.750.570.86
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D11D11D20W02L10W10W24L01LH·TRI03/09A·DEK06/09H·SLO14/09A·TAB21/09H·RUD27/09A·BIS04/10H·KRK12/10A·NAF19/10H·DRA25/10A·BIL05/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.000.711.290.620.75
vs Stronger (8)0.381.500.002.000.751.00
vs Similar (21)0.710.861.001.000.450.73
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gorica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoricaGorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W02L11D01L00D00D11D11DH·BIS31/08A·NAF06/09H·BIL13/09A·BEL20/09H·BRI26/09A·TRI03/10H·SLO12/10A·RUD18/10H·KRK24/10A·DRA02/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.671.130.530.670.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.601.290.430.250.75
vs Weaker (15)1.070.731.000.621.140.86
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
ILI wins
0
Draws
4
GOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ilirija vs Gorica · H/A from ILI
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/25AGorica Vs ILI2-1
26/10/24HILI Vs Gorica1-3
07/04/24AGorica Vs ILI4-1
20/09/23HILI Vs Gorica0-4

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/25ABilje Vs ILI1-1
25/10/25HILI Vs Dravinja2-5
19/10/25ANafta Vs ILI2-1
12/10/25HILI Vs Krka1-1
04/10/25ABistrica Vs ILI2-2
27/09/25HILI Vs Rudar2-2
21/09/25ATabor Sežana Vs ILI1-1
14/09/25HILI Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-2
06/09/25ADekani Vs ILI3-1
03/09/25HILI Vs Triglav0-2

GoricaGorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25ADravinja Vs GOR2-1
24/10/25HGOR Vs Krka1-3
18/10/25ARudar Vs GOR2-1
12/10/25HGOR Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-1
03/10/25ATriglav Vs GOR3-0
26/09/25HGOR Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-2
20/09/25ABeltinci Vs GOR3-0
13/09/25HGOR Vs Bilje1-1
06/09/25ANafta Vs GOR1-0
31/08/25HGOR Vs Bistrica2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLD0.90
HomeLLDDL0.88
AwayLDDLD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%17%19%
AVG goals2.822.922.73
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.081.081.08
Conceded1.741.831.65
BTTS64%62%65%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Gorica
Gorica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL1.46
HomeDDDDL1.52
AwayLLLLL1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.943.122.76
Over 1.5 %80%92%68%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %38%36%40%
Scored1.621.681.56
Conceded1.321.441.20
BTTS58%68%48%
Clean Sheet30%28%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
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Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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