Inter’s recent two-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over Cagliari set the tone for a favoured home win. The model predicts a 54% chance of Inter triumphing, a 25% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of Napoli winning. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals, a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance, distinct from the total-goals expectation.
Inter’s home form shows an average of 2.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against similarly strong opponents, while Napoli’s away form averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.4% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (95.5% with a 2% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (93.6% with a 5% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inter win
53.8%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.66
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.70
Dafabet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.73
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.96
Pinnacle
3.96
Marathonbet
3.88
Dafabet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Napoli win
20.6%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.41
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.67
Dafabet
5.60
Betano
5.60
Marathonbet
5.55
Pinnacle
5.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.03
2.50
1.21
2.00
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.38
2.40
2.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
2.36
0.91
2.56
0.78
2.23
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.60
1.20
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.70
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.60
0.80
1.70
1.00
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.32+6.9%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 3.25-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.0%
@ 2.04+6.1%
Under 2.5
47.0%
@ 1.79-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
SBO
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.8%
@ 3.55+4.3%
Under 3.5
69.2%
@ 1.28-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.63
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to score
Yes
54.3%
@ 1.96+6.7%
No
45.7%
@ 1.78-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.04
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
No
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Bet365
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.72+5.3%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.73+3.8%
1-0
9.7%@ 5.86+1.8%
2-0
9.6%@ 7.09+3.1%
0-0
7.2%@ 9.05+2.1%
3-1
5.8%@ 12.35+2.1%
1-2
5.7%@ 16.10+2.8%
3-0
5.7%@ 11.80+1.7%
Inter goals ↓
Napoli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.1%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.7%
12%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.8%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
5.7%
5.8%
3.0%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.5%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter goals (down), columns = Napoli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Inter is 0.29 points better than Napoli in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Inter is 0.82 goals better than Napoli in terms of goals scored per game (2.34 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Inter is 0.03 goals better than Napoli in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Inter is 0.9 percentage points better than Napoli in terms of average possession (60% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inter
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Napoli
For 5.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 9.1 · Total 17.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.2
8.4
3.3
3.1
3.4
23.9
23.4
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
8.4
7.6
9.1
3.4
3.5
3.3
24.4
22.4
26.1
vs Weaker (33)
9.8
11.5
8.1
3.2
2.9
3.5
23.6
23.8
23.4
% over line
52%
68%
36%
34%
40%
28%
56%
56%
56%
% under line
48%
32%
64%
66%
60%
72%
44%
44%
44%
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.8
8.0
3.2
2.8
3.6
23.3
23.4
23.2
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
7.0
-
7.0
vs Similar (16)
7.2
7.2
7.2
3.3
2.5
4.1
23.4
23.1
23.8
vs Weaker (33)
8.9
9.5
8.2
3.2
2.9
3.4
23.7
23.5
23.9
% over line
30%
32%
28%
38%
28%
48%
62%
64%
60%
% under line
70%
68%
72%
62%
72%
52%
38%
36%
40%
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.8%
@ 2.12-6.9%
Under 9.5
63.2%
@ 1.65+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Unibet
1.62
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
42.3%
@ 1.78-10.0%
Under 3.5
57.7%
@ 1.96+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
61.0%
Under 21.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Inter or Draw
74.3%
Avg Implied 82.1% · @ 1.15
Edge
-7.8%
54%
26%
21%
covers Inter + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Inter or Napoli
71.6%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.25
Edge
-3.9%
54%
26%
21%
covers Inter + Napoli
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Draw or Napoli
54.1%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.22
Edge
+11.7%
54%
26%
21%
covers Draw + Napoli
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.29
SBO
2.29
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Unibet
2.23
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Inter over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
@ 1.16-2.9%
Under
22.5%
@ 4.75+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Inter over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
@ 1.83-7.3%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.92+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Inter over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
@ 3.62-6.9%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.26+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.75
Marathonbet
3.65
1xBet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Inter over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
@ 7.88-5.3%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.05+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Napoli over/under 0.5
Over
65.4%
@ 1.66+9.3%
Under
34.6%
@ 2.12-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Napoli over/under 1.5
Over
28.6%
@ 4.41+7.4%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.19-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Pinnacle
4.54
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Napoli over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
@ 12.99+1.8%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.03-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
13.75
1xBet
13.70
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Napoli over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
@ 32.50-0.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Inter, so a minus line means Inter give that many goals of a start and Napoli receive them. At -1, Inter must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Inter win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Inter)
Inter -2
9.3%
@ 5.74-6.3%
Draw -2
14.2%
@ 4.60-5.2%
Napoli +2
76.5%
@ 1.38+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Draw
Marathonbet
4.85
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.33
Handicap -1 (Inter)
Inter -1
23.5%
@ 2.78-8.9%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.37-4.4%
Napoli +1
54.1%
@ 2.21+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Away
Marathonbet
2.29
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Handicap +1 (Inter)
Inter +1
74.3%
@ 1.14-3.9%
Draw +1
15.5%
@ 6.26+1.3%
Napoli -1
10.2%
@ 11.75+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
12.50
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Inter)
Inter +2
89.8%
@ 1.02-2.3%
Draw +2
7.2%
@ 16.00+1.3%
Napoli -2
3.0%
@ 48.50+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.93
0.57
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.05
0.36
0.78
0.33
1.23
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.87
0.67
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.45
0.90
0.70
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.6%
@ 1.41+5.3%
Under 0.5
28.4%
@ 2.78-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.88
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.79
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
@ 2.94+4.7%
Under 1.5
63.4%
@ 1.38-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Marathonbet
3.00
Under
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.5%
@ 7.56-0.8%
Under 2.5
88.5%
@ 1.06+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inter over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.3%
@ 1.76+2.1%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.99-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
Betano
1.95
Inter over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.9%
@ 4.72+0.3%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.15-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Inter over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
@ 10.25-5.6%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Napoli over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.6%
@ 2.97+6.2%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.36-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.13
Unibet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Napoli over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
@ 10.42-1.9%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Napoli over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.57
1.57
0.64
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.62
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.32
0.55
1.78
0.44
1.00
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Napoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.10
0.60
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.35
0.80
0.30
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.3%
@ 1.25+6.0%
Under 0.5
19.7%
@ 3.63-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Betano
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.6%
@ 2.23+6.4%
Under 1.5
51.4%
@ 1.62-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.1%
@ 4.88-0.0%
Under 2.5
80.9%
@ 1.15+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inter over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.2%
@ 1.51+2.4%
Under
35.8%
@ 2.44-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Inter over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.2%
@ 3.41-2.0%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Inter over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.4%
@ 8.45-3.5%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.04+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
Napoli over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.0%
@ 2.42+5.6%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.51-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.44
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
Napoli over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.9%
@ 8.53+0.1%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
8.80
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Napoli over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 13.50-5.0%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+5.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-1.8%
Home +2 handicap
89.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-2.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-0.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
+0.8%
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+1.4%
Under 5.5 cards
88.1%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+14.0%
Under 11.5 corners
83.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+7.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.26
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+6.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
+0.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
-0.3%
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+6.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
-2.9%
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.33
+11.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
76.0%
1.52
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
-
+14.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
-
+2.0%
Under 10.5 corners
74.5%
1.37
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
-
+7.5%
Home or Draw
74.3%
1.15
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
-7.8%
Home +1 handicap
74.3%
1.14
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
-3.9%
Home or Away
71.6%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
-3.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Unibet
1.42
+5.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
71.4%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
-7.4%
Under 25.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Inter · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lautaro Martínez48%
Marcus Thuram30%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu30%
Francesco Pio Esposito21%
Federico Dimarco17%
Ange-Yoan Bonny15%
Piotr Zieliński15%
Denzel Dumfries14%
Andy Diouf14%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Yann Bisseck9%
Petar Sučić8%
Nicolò Barella7%
Alessandro Bastoni5%
Manuel Akanji4%
Carlos Augusto4%
Luís Henrique2%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Yann Sommer0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Josep Martínez0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hakan Çalhanoğlu23%
Alessandro Bastoni23%
Nicolò Barella20%
Francesco Acerbi19%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan18%
Lautaro Martínez15%
Carlos Augusto13%
Stefan de Vrij12%
Petar Sučić12%
Yann Bisseck11%
Manuel Akanji11%
Federico Dimarco11%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Marcus Thuram7%
Piotr Zieliński6%
Francesco Pio Esposito6%
Andy Diouf4%
Luís Henrique2%
Ange-Yoan Bonny2%
Matteo Darmian0%
Yann Sommer0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Josep Martínez0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Federico Dimarco26%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu20%
Nicolò Barella18%
Marcus Thuram16%
Lautaro Martínez15%
Alessandro Bastoni13%
Ange-Yoan Bonny11%
Francesco Pio Esposito10%
Piotr Zieliński8%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Petar Sučić6%
Yann Bisseck6%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Luís Henrique5%
Francesco Acerbi4%
Davide Frattesi3%
Carlos Augusto2%
Manuel Akanji0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Yann Sommer0%
Josep Martínez0%
Andy Diouf0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lautaro Martínez42%
Marcus Thuram35%
Federico Dimarco20%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu17%
Francesco Pio Esposito17%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Carlos Augusto7%
Davide Frattesi6%
Andy Diouf4%
Piotr Zieliński2%
Petar Sučić2%
Manuel Akanji0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Yann Sommer0%
Luís Henrique0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Nicolò Barella0%
Alessandro Bastoni0%
Josep Martínez0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Napoli · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott McTominay29%
Alisson Santos27%
Rasmus Højlund26%
Kevin De Bruyne24%
Frank Anguissa18%
Antonio Vergara17%
Romelu Lukaku14%
Lorenzo Lucca9%
David Neres9%
Amir Rrahmani8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Matteo Politano5%
Noa Lang4%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Eljif Elmas2%
Alex Meret0%
Juan Jesus0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Jesus30%
Antonio Vergara17%
Noa Lang16%
Romelu Lukaku14%
David Neres13%
Amir Rrahmani12%
Matteo Politano12%
Eljif Elmas12%
Mathías Olivera9%
Alex Meret8%
Stanislav Lobotka8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Alessandro Buongiorno7%
Alisson Santos7%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Kevin De Bruyne5%
Rasmus Højlund5%
Frank Anguissa5%
Lorenzo Lucca5%
Scott McTominay2%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Neres17%
Antonio Vergara17%
Kevin De Bruyne14%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Leonardo Spinazzola10%
Matteo Politano10%
Eljif Elmas10%
Alex Meret8%
Noa Lang8%
Giovane8%
Scott McTominay7%
Pasquale Mazzocchi6%
Frank Anguissa5%
Amir Rrahmani4%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Mathías Olivera3%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Vanja Milinković-Savić3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Alessandro Buongiorno2%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Sam Beukema0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Alisson Santos0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Scott McTominay36%
Alisson Santos27%
Frank Anguissa18%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Matteo Politano10%
Antonio Vergara6%
Leonardo Spinazzola5%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Alex Meret0%
Noa Lang0%
David Neres0%
Kevin De Bruyne0%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Amir Rrahmani0%
Eljif Elmas0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Sam Beukema0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Stanislav Lobotka0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Inter's squad is €235m more valuable than Napoli's (€694m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Inter's attack is €14m more valuable than Napoli's (€220m vs €206m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Inter's midfield is €131m more valuable than Napoli's (€232m vs €101m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Inter's defence is €90m more valuable than Napoli's (€242m vs €152m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina