Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica Result & Analysis

Istra 1961 are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of a home victory, 28% for a draw and 19% for HNK Gorica. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two, a 27% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13% chance. Istra’s home form shows 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Gorica’s away record is 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 84.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.3%, Under 10.5 corners at 74.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.6% and Over 1.5 at 71.0%. The match is expected to be a modestly high-foul affair with a modest number of corners and cards, favouring a home win.

Istra 1961’s win over HNK Gorica was a fitting continuation of their recent form, extending a run that had seen a draw against Dinamo Zagreb. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct as the final score of 1-0 confirmed the actual result. The prediction of a 1-0 outcome matched the most likely score, and the model’s 53% probability for a home victory was spot on. Every suggested pick also played out: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 84.8%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 83.1%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 79.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.2%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 74.3%, Under 10.5 corners hit at 74.1%, while Over 21.5 fouls missed at 72.6% and Over 1.5 missed at 71.0%. The model’s selections largely delivered.