Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo Result & Analysis

Istra 1961’s defensive record at home shows a tight contest, conceding only 0.33 goals per game against similar opposition, while NK Slaven Belupo’s away defence has leaked 0.67 goals on average. The model favours a home win, with a 50% chance, a 36% chance of a draw, and a 14% chance of an away victory. The expected total is 1.5 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 0-0 at 23.1%. The match is projected to be low-scoring, with the most probable total of one goal at 31%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 at 93.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 85.0%, Under 2.5 at 80.6%, Under 10.5 corners at 76.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.2%, and Under 5.5 cards at 78.5%. The BTTS No pick is 75.4%. Istra’s recent draw against Dinamo Zagreb and Slaven Belupo’s loss to Osijek hint at a cautious, defensively-focused encounter.

The pre-match favourite, Istra 1961, did not deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s Home win call wrong. Istra, fresh from a draw against Dinamo Zagreb, had a 50% chance of winning, while the model had predicted a 50% probability for a home victory. The under 3.5 goals pick, with a 93.3% chance, hit, as did the over 19.5 fouls (86.4%), under 11.5 corners (85.0%), under 2.5 goals (80.6%), under 10.5 corners (76.5%), over 2.5 cards (76.2%) and the under 5.5 cards (78.5%) pick missed, and the BTTS No (75.4%) also missed. The model’s selection of a 1-0 scoreline, the most likely total, was not achieved.