The contest between Jadran LP and Dugopolje is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win at 36%. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% probability. Jadran LP, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Dugopolje, on the road, averages 0.87 scored and 1.2 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 34% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 36% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (95.8%), Under 4.5 (89.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.4%), and Away under 2.5 goals (86.4%). With Jadran LP unbeaten in their last three and Dugopolje fresh from a draw, the game promises a tight, low-scoring showdown.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jadran LP win
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje win
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jadran LP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.33
1.50
1.50
4.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.33
1.33
1.50
1.50
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.67
1.13
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.28
1.17
1.71
1.14
0.87
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.5%
0-1
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.2%
Jadran LP goals ↓
Dugopolje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
9.2%
6.7%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.8%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.2%
7.9%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jadran LP goals (down), columns = Dugopolje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Jadran LP is 0.50 points worse than Dugopolje in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Jadran LP is 0.25 goals worse than Dugopolje in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Jadran LP is 0.27 goals worse than Dugopolje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jadran LP or Draw
63.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Jadran LP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP or Dugopolje
70.4%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Jadran LP + Dugopolje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dugopolje
65.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Dugopolje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jadran LP, so a minus line means Jadran LP give that many goals of a start and Dugopolje receive them. At -1, Jadran LP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jadran LP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP -2
5.0%
Draw -2
10.1%
Dugopolje +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP -1
15.1%
Draw -1
19.0%
Dugopolje +1
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP +1
63.7%
Draw +1
19.8%
Dugopolje -1
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP +2
83.5%
Draw +2
10.8%
Dugopolje -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jadran LP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.93
0.60
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.72
0.69
0.93
0.64
0.53
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jadran LP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dugopolje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dugopolje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.48
0.79
0.50
0.33
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dugopolje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Jadran LP and Dugopolje have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Jadran LP and Dugopolje have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Jadran LP and Dugopolje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Jadran LP and Dugopolje have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace