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Jadran LP vs Kustosija Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 15:00
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
Vs
48%
30%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kustosija
Kustosija
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Jadran LP are tipped to win this encounter, with a 48% chance of a home victory, 30% for a draw and 22% for Kustosija to come away with the win. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 28% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which carries a 13.9% chance. Jadran have been unbeaten in their last three games, while Kustosija are coming off a 0-0 draw and have struggled to score away, averaging only 0.67 goals per match against stronger opponents and conceding 1.6. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.1%), Home +2 handicap (92.1%) and Under 4.5 (92.0%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jadran LP win
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kustosija win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Jadran LPJadran LP

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D41W11DH·OPA22/08A·HRV29/08H·DUB02/09
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.331.501.504.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)2.331.331.501.504.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KustosijaKustosija

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L01L21W01L12L12L11D12L00DH·HRV22/05A·DUG27/05H·DUB03/06H·ZRI10/06A·ZRI17/06H·ORI09/06A·ORI14/06A·DUG22/08H·MLA30/08A·SEG02/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.531.531.470.671.60
vs Stronger (29)1.101.521.571.430.671.60
vs Similar (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.5%
Under 2.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.4%
Under 3.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
13.1%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.6%
Jadran LP goals ↓
Kustosija goals →
01234
012%7.9%4.0%1.2%0.3%
113%14%5.5%1.6%0.4%
210.0%8.8%3.8%1.1%0.2%
34.6%4.1%1.8%0.5%0.1%
41.6%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jadran LP goals (down), columns = Kustosija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Jadran LP is 0.12 points better than Kustosija in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.02).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Jadran LP is 0.10 goals better than Kustosija in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Jadran LP is 0.17 goals better than Kustosija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jadran LP or Draw
77.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Jadran LP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP or Kustosija
70.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Jadran LP + Kustosija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kustosija
52.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
30%
22%
covers Draw + Kustosija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 0.5
Over
58.4%
Under
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Jadran LP, so a minus line means Jadran LP give that many goals of a start and Kustosija receive them. At -1, Jadran LP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jadran LP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP -2
8.9%
Draw -2
14.7%
Kustosija +2
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP -1
23.7%
Draw -1
23.9%
Kustosija +1
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP +1
77.5%
Draw +1
14.6%
Kustosija -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.9%
Kustosija -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Jadran LPJadran LP

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W10WH·OPA22/08A·HRV29/08H·DUB02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.331.000.002.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.330.331.000.002.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KustosijaKustosija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D00D11D01L01L00D00DH·HRV22/05A·DUG27/05H·DUB03/06H·ZRI10/06A·ZRI17/06H·ORI09/06A·ORI14/06A·DUG22/08H·MLA30/08A·SEG02/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.500.670.530.200.47
vs Stronger (29)0.450.520.710.570.200.47
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Jadran LPJadran LP

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L20W01LH·OPA22/08A·HRV29/08H·DUB02/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.000.501.502.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.001.000.501.502.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KustosijaKustosija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L21W01L01L11D10W12L00DH·HRV22/05A·DUG27/05H·DUB03/06H·ZRI10/06A·ZRI17/06H·ORI09/06A·ORI14/06A·DUG22/08H·MLA30/08A·SEG02/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.030.870.930.471.13
vs Stronger (29)0.661.000.860.860.471.13
vs Similar (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.8%-------
Under 5.597.2%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals94.1%-------
Home +2 handicap92.1%-------
Under 4.592.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals83.7%-------
Under 3.580.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals78.1%-------
Home or Draw77.5%-------
Home +1 handicap77.5%-------
Away +2 handicap76.3%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.0%-------
Home or Away70.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Jadran LP and Kustosija have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Jadran LP and Kustosija have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Jadran LP and Kustosija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Jadran LP and Kustosija have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
JL wins
0
Draws
0
KUS wins

Head-to-head

Jadran LP vs Kustosija · H/A from JL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Jadran LPJadran LP

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HJL Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-1
29/08/26AHrvace Vs JL1-4
22/08/26HJL Vs Opatija2-2

KustosijaKustosija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26ASegesta Sisak Vs KUS0-0
30/08/26HKUS Vs Mladost Ždralovi1-2
22/08/26ADugopolje Vs KUS1-1
14/06/24AOrijent 1919 Vs KUS2-1
09/06/24HKUS Vs Orijent 19191-2
17/06/23AZrinski Jurjevac Vs KUS1-0
10/06/23HKUS Vs Zrinski Jurjevac2-1
03/06/23HKUS Vs Dubrava Zagreb0-1
27/05/23ADugopolje Vs KUS2-0
22/05/23HKUS Vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWD1.67
HomeDD1.00
AwayW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%0%100%
AVG goals3.673.005.00
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %67%50%100%
Over 3.5 %67%50%100%
Scored2.331.504.00
Conceded1.331.501.00
BTTS100%100%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Kustosija
Kustosija
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD0.97
HomeWLWLL1.32
AwayLLLDD0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %25%37%14%
AVG goals2.502.792.24
Over 1.5 %70%79%62%
Over 2.5 %48%63%33%
Over 3.5 %18%21%14%
Scored1.021.420.67
Conceded1.481.371.57
BTTS50%63%38%
Clean Sheet20%26%14%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci39
100%
3.0
61+5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.00.3
-
2Mladost ŽdraloviMladost Ždralovi37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.7
-
3Jadran LPJadran LP35
33%
1.7
74+3
3.7
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.3
-
4DugopoljeDugopolje35
33%
1.7
54+1
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.71.3
-
5HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia35
33%
1.7
32+1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.00.7
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 191934
33%
1.3
43+1
2.3
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.0
-
7OpatijaOpatija34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.31.3
-
8Segesta SisakSegesta Sisak34
33%
1.3
33+0
2.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
9Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo34
33%
1.3
22+0
1.3
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.70.7
-
10VukovarVukovar34
33%
1.3
57-2
4.0
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.72.3
-
11Karlovac 1919Karlovac 191934
33%
1.3
46-2
3.3
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2011.32.0
-
12SesveteSesvete33
33%
1.0
43+1
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.31.0
-
13Dinamo Zagreb U21Dinamo Zagreb U2133
33%
1.0
66+0
4.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.02.0
-
14KustosijaKustosija32
0%
0.7
23-1
1.7
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.71.0
-
15Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb31
0%
0.3
35-2
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.7
-
16HrvaceHrvace30
0%
0.0
18-7
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.32.7
-
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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