Jadran LP and Orijent 1919 face a tightly contested encounter, with the model favouring an away win at 37%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% chance. Jadran LP, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Orijent 1919, on the road, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 34% home win, 29% draw, and 37% away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (91.5%). Both sides have shown recent resilience, with Jadran LP unbeaten in their last three and Orijent 1919 coming off a draw. The match remains evenly poised, but the slight edge to the visitors suggests a cautious optimism for an away triumph.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jadran LP win
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 win
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jadran LP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.33
1.50
1.50
4.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.33
1.33
1.50
1.50
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-31pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.29
0.93
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.23
1.29
0.93
0.88
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.7%
Under 1.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
8.6%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.9%
Jadran LP goals ↓
Orijent 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
8.6%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.1%
14%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
5.9%
7.9%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.5%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jadran LP goals (down), columns = Orijent 1919 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Jadran LP is 0.01 points worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Jadran LP is 0.25 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Jadran LP is 0.18 goals worse than Orijent 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jadran LP or Draw
62.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Jadran LP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP or Orijent 1919
71.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Jadran LP + Orijent 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Orijent 1919
66.2%
Avg Implied -
34%
29%
37%
covers Draw + Orijent 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5
Over
73.9%
Under
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jadran LP, so a minus line means Jadran LP give that many goals of a start and Orijent 1919 receive them. At -1, Jadran LP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jadran LP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP -2
5.2%
Draw -2
10.0%
Orijent 1919 +2
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP -1
15.2%
Draw -1
18.6%
Orijent 1919 +1
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP +1
62.6%
Draw +1
19.8%
Orijent 1919 -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jadran LP)
Jadran LP +2
82.4%
Draw +2
11.3%
Orijent 1919 -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jadran LP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.44
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.7%
Under 0.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.0%
Under 1.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
Under 2.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jadran LP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Jadran LP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.0%
Under 1.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.0%
Under 2.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jadran LP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jadran LP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Jadran LP and Orijent 1919 have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Jadran LP and Orijent 1919 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Jadran LP and Orijent 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Jadran LP and Orijent 1919 have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →