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Jarun vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo Result & Analysis

Date: 23/03/2024
Time: 14:30
Final 1-3
Jarun
Jarun
Vs
46%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Jarun win✗ Miss
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

JarunJarun

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W12L02L01L10W22D10W20W02LA·ORI04/11H·HNK13/11A·SES17/11H·DUG25/11A·CRO03/12H·DUB16/02H·BSK23/02A·VUK03/03H·SOL09/03A·SIB16/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.301.731.270.671.33
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.003.001.000.00
vs Similar (27)1.221.301.851.150.641.43
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L11D01L12L22D22D22D23L20WA·DUG04/11H·SIB11/11A·CRO19/11H·ZRI25/11A·DUB01/12H·ORI17/02A·JAR23/02H·HNK02/03A·VUK09/03H·SES16/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.171.131.070.731.27
vs Stronger (3)1.672.331.502.002.003.00
vs Similar (26)0.851.081.081.000.641.14
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.2%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.3%
Jarun goals ↓
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals →
01234
08.0%6.5%4.4%1.7%0.5%
19.3%13%6.8%2.6%0.7%
28.2%9.3%5.3%2.0%0.6%
34.2%4.8%2.7%1.0%0.3%
41.6%1.9%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jarun goals (down), columns = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
Jarun is 0.18 points better than Bsk Bijelo Brdo in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.03).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Solin
1.00
Kustosija
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Jarun is 0.15 goals better than Bsk Bijelo Brdo in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.91).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
Jarun is 0.06 goals worse than Bsk Bijelo Brdo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.33).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JarunJarun

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L01L01L00D01L00D10W01LA·ORI04/11H·HNK13/11A·SES17/11H·DUG25/11A·CRO03/12H·DUB16/02H·BSK23/02A·VUK03/03H·SOL09/03A·SIB16/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.630.400.670.200.60
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.330.590.460.540.210.64
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L00D00D11D11D10W10W11D00DA·DUG04/11H·SIB11/11A·CRO19/11H·ZRI25/11A·DUB01/12H·ORI17/02A·JAR23/02H·HNK02/03A·VUK09/03H·SES16/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.230.470.200.330.27
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.500.001.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.350.230.420.250.290.21
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jarun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JarunJarun

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W10W01L00D10W21W10W10W01LA·ORI04/11H·HNK13/11A·SES17/11H·DUG25/11A·CRO03/12H·DUB16/02H·BSK23/02A·VUK03/03H·SOL09/03A·SIB16/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.671.330.600.470.73
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.890.701.380.620.430.79
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D01L01L11D12L12L12L20WA·DUG04/11H·SIB11/11A·CRO19/11H·ZRI25/11A·DUB01/12H·ORI17/02A·JAR23/02H·HNK02/03A·VUK09/03H·SES16/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.670.870.401.00
vs Stronger (3)1.002.001.002.001.002.00
vs Similar (26)0.500.850.670.750.360.93
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jarun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
JAR wins
2
Draws
1
BBB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jarun vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · H/A from JAR
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/24HJAR Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo2-2
30/09/23ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR0-0
29/04/23ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR1-2
03/12/22ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR2-1
18/09/22HJAR Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo3-2

JarunJarun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/24ASibenik Vs JAR2-0
09/03/24HJAR Vs Solin2-0
03/03/24AVukovar Vs JAR0-1
23/02/24HJAR Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo2-2
16/02/24HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-0
03/12/23ACroatia Zmijavci Vs JAR1-0
25/11/23HJAR Vs Dugopolje0-2
17/11/23ASesvete Vs JAR2-1
13/11/23HJAR Vs HNK Cibalia2-0
04/11/23AOrijent 1919 Vs JAR0-1

Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/24HBBB Vs Sesvete2-0
09/03/24AVukovar Vs BBB3-2
02/03/24HBBB Vs HNK Cibalia2-2
23/02/24AJarun Vs BBB2-2
17/02/24HBBB Vs Orijent 19192-2
01/12/23ADubrava Zagreb Vs BBB2-1
25/11/23HBBB Vs Zrinski Jurjevac0-1
19/11/23ACroatia Zmijavci Vs BBB1-1
11/11/23HBBB Vs Sibenik0-1
04/11/23ADugopolje Vs BBB1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jarun
Jarun
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.34
HomeWLWDW1.96
AwayWLLWL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%62%19%
AVG goals2.743.172.35
Over 1.5 %70%79%62%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %28%33%23%
Scored1.201.750.69
Conceded1.541.421.65
BTTS42%46%38%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLW1.16
HomeLLDDW1.42
AwayDDLDL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%23%
AVG goals2.282.212.35
Over 1.5 %64%62%65%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.101.330.88
Conceded1.180.881.46
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet30%33%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SibenikSibenik3382
79%
2.5
6818+50
2.6
73%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.10.5
-
2Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac3381
79%
2.5
5318+35
2.2
61%
42%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.5
-
3VukovarVukovar3358
48%
1.8
5636+20
2.8
79%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.1
-
4SesveteSesvete3342
36%
1.3
3641-5
2.3
67%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.11.2
-
5JarunJarun3340
33%
1.2
3546-11
2.5
70%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193539
26%
1.1
3850-12
2.5
60%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.4
-
7Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3338
30%
1.2
3644-8
2.4
73%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.3
-
8DugopoljeDugopolje3337
24%
1.1
3845-7
2.5
82%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
9HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3337
33%
1.1
3757-20
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.7
-
10Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3336
24%
1.1
3948-9
2.6
76%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3334
21%
1.0
3044-14
2.2
64%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.3
-
12SolinSolin3324
12%
0.7
3350-17
2.5
73%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
13KustosijaKustosija20
0%
0.0
24-2
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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