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Jarun vs Croatia Zmijavci Result & Analysis

Date: 04/03/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-1
Jarun
Jarun
Vs
54%
25%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jarun win✓ Hit
53.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci win✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JarunJarun

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W00D03L24L34L32W02L12L00D00DH·KUS15/10A·HRV21/10A·RUD29/10H·VUK05/11A·ORI12/11H·DUB19/11A·SOL26/11A·BSK03/12H·HNK17/02A·DUG25/02
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.321.682.001.560.701.80
vs Stronger (2)1.504.002.004.001.004.00
vs Similar (16)1.191.501.861.430.671.56
vs Weaker (1)3.000.003.000.00--
Clean sheet %32% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W04L02L02L01L12L31W13L12L00DH·JAR09/10A·BSK16/10H·HNK23/10H·DUG30/10H·SOL06/11A·KUS11/11H·HRV19/11A·RUD26/11H·VUK12/02A·ORI18/02
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.611.221.440.781.78
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.002.001.000.00
vs Similar (14)1.001.711.291.430.712.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.6%
Jarun goals ↓
Croatia Zmijavci goals →
01234
06.9%5.0%3.2%1.1%0.3%
19.3%12%5.7%2.0%0.5%
29.4%9.8%5.2%1.8%0.5%
35.6%5.9%3.1%1.1%0.3%
42.5%2.7%1.4%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jarun goals (down), columns = Croatia Zmijavci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vukovar
1.91
Rudes
1.85
HNK Cibalia
1.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.50
Jarun
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.30
Solin
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
1.27
Dugopolje
1.24
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.76
Jarun is 0.03 points better than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.73
Rudes
1.61
Solin
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.36
Jarun
1.30
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
Croatia Zmijavci
1.12
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
0.91
Jarun is 0.18 goals better than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.76
HNK Cibalia
0.79
Rudes
0.82
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.12
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Croatia Zmijavci
1.33
Orijent 1919
1.36
Kustosija
1.49
Solin
1.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.70
Jarun
1.73
Jarun is 0.39 goals worse than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JarunJarun

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L22D30W02L00D00D00D00DH·KUS15/10A·HRV21/10A·RUD29/10H·VUK05/11A·ORI12/11H·DUB19/11A·SOL26/11A·BSK03/12H·HNK17/02A·DUG25/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.470.780.780.600.20
vs Stronger (2)1.501.502.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.380.570.710.560.11
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %68% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L02L02L00D11D11D01L12L00DH·JAR09/10A·BSK16/10H·HNK23/10H·DUG30/10H·SOL06/11A·KUS11/11H·HRV19/11A·RUD26/11H·VUK12/02A·ORI18/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.440.940.561.220.330.67
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.430.930.571.140.290.71
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %28% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jarun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JarunJarun

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D02L02L04L30W02L12L00D00DH·KUS15/10A·HRV21/10A·RUD29/10H·VUK05/11A·ORI12/11H·DUB19/11A·SOL26/11A·BSK03/12H·HNK17/02A·DUG25/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.211.220.780.101.60
vs Stronger (2)0.002.500.002.000.003.00
vs Similar (16)0.621.121.290.710.111.44
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L00D00D01L01L20W12L00D00DH·JAR09/10A·BSK16/10H·HNK23/10H·DUG30/10H·SOL06/11A·KUS11/11H·HRV19/11A·RUD26/11H·VUK12/02A·ORI18/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.670.670.220.441.11
vs Stronger (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.570.790.710.290.431.29
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %61% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Jarun) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jarun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jarun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
JAR wins
0
Draws
1
CZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jarun vs Croatia Zmijavci · H/A from JAR
DateH/AGameScore
09/10/22ACroatia Zmijavci Vs JAR2-1

JarunJarun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23ADugopolje Vs JAR0-0
17/02/23HJAR Vs HNK Cibalia0-0
03/12/22ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs JAR2-1
26/11/22ASolin Vs JAR2-0
19/11/22HJAR Vs Dubrava Zagreb3-2
12/11/22AOrijent 1919 Vs JAR4-3
05/11/22HJAR Vs Vukovar2-4
29/10/22ARudes Vs JAR3-0
21/10/22AHrvatski Dragovoljac Vs JAR0-0
15/10/22HJAR Vs Kustosija3-0

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/23AOrijent 1919 Vs CZ0-0
12/02/23HCZ Vs Vukovar1-2
26/11/22ARudes Vs CZ3-1
19/11/22HCZ Vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac3-1
11/11/22AKustosija Vs CZ2-1
06/11/22HCZ Vs Solin0-1
30/10/22HCZ Vs Dugopolje0-2
23/10/22HCZ Vs HNK Cibalia0-2
16/10/22ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs CZ4-0
09/10/22HCZ Vs Jarun2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jarun
Jarun
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.16
HomeWWLWD1.89
AwayLLLLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%56%10%
AVG goals3.003.562.50
Over 1.5 %74%89%60%
Over 2.5 %63%78%50%
Over 3.5 %37%56%20%
Scored1.322.000.70
Conceded1.681.561.80
BTTS53%67%40%
Clean Sheet32%33%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.06
HomeLLLWL1.22
AwayLLLLD0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%22%
AVG goals2.612.672.56
Over 1.5 %83%89%78%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %28%22%33%
Scored1.001.220.78
Conceded1.611.441.78
BTTS56%67%44%
Clean Sheet17%0%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VukovarVukovar3363
52%
1.9
5725+32
2.5
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2RudesRudes3361
55%
1.8
5327+26
2.4
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3111.60.8
-
3HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3354
39%
1.6
3726+11
1.9
58%
30%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.10.8
-
4Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3344
36%
1.3
4137+4
2.4
67%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
5JarunJarun3344
39%
1.3
4357-14
3.0
73%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193343
30%
1.3
4545+0
2.7
73%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
7Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3343
36%
1.3
3744-7
2.5
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
8SolinSolin3343
36%
1.3
4755-8
3.1
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
9Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3342
33%
1.3
3839-1
2.3
67%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.2
-
10DugopoljeDugopolje3341
27%
1.2
3035-5
2.0
70%
24%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.1
-
11KustosijaKustosija3537
29%
1.1
3752-15
2.5
69%
46%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
12Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac3325
15%
0.8
3356-23
2.7
76%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
13Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
14Inter ZaprešićInter Zaprešić00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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