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Jesenice vs Dravinja Result & Analysis

Date: 23/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Jesenice
Jesenice
Vs
29%
27%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dravinja
Dravinja
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win, with the odds at 44 % for Dravinja, 27 % for a draw and 29 % for Jesenice. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, but the most probable total is two goals, a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 13 % probability. Jesenice, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.92 goals scored and 2.23 conceded, while Dravinja’s away form shows 0.92 scored and 2.23 conceded as well. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with a 77.9 % probability, and it notes the edge at 77.9 %. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win. Recent form suggests Jesenice are coming off a win, whereas Dravinja have bounced back from three straight defeats. This match is likely to be tight, with the away side holding a slight edge.

Results analysis

Jesenice entered the match on a win-draw-lose-lose-lose streak, their recent victory over Dekani giving them a glimmer of confidence. Dravinja, fresh from a three-game losing run, had turned it around with two wins in a row, setting the stage for a tough day for the selections. The model’s favourite was an Away win at 44 %, and the result was indeed an Away win, confirming the model’s call. The only other suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals at 77.9 %, which missed as the final score was a narrow 0-1. The match finished 0-1, an Away win that matched the model’s prediction.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jesenice win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JeseniceJesenice

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-822D11D02L02L02L18L03L01L21W23LH·TAB21/03A·BIS29/03H·NAF04/04A·BIL11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.310.932.070.872.53
vs Stronger (27)0.782.480.922.230.642.71
vs Similar (2)2.500.001.000.004.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DravinjaDravinja

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D11D12L21W11D10W21W11D21WH·BIL21/03A·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05H·KRŠ16/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.501.191.311.001.71
vs Stronger (4)1.252.251.502.501.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.121.361.231.081.001.67
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-2
9.2%
0-1 ✓
8.4%
0-2
7.5%
0-0
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.7%
Jesenice goals ↓
Dravinja goals →
01234
07.3%8.4%7.5%3.9%1.5%
16.4%13%9.2%4.8%1.9%
24.7%7.3%5.7%2.9%1.1%
31.9%3.0%2.3%1.2%0.5%
40.6%0.9%0.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jesenice goals (down), columns = Dravinja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Jesenice is 0.63 points worse than Dravinja in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Jesenice is 0.20 goals worse than Dravinja in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Jesenice is 0.80 goals worse than Dravinja in terms of goals conceded per game (2.27 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JeseniceJesenice

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D01L00D00D14L01L01L10W21WH·TAB21/03A·BIS29/03H·NAF04/04A·BIL11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.830.360.790.470.87
vs Stronger (27)0.330.890.310.850.360.93
vs Similar (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %41% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DravinjaDravinja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L00D11D10W11D00D01L00D10WH·BIL21/03A·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05H·KRŠ16/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.500.750.500.79
vs Stronger (4)0.751.250.501.501.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.480.720.540.690.420.75
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JeseniceJesenice

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D01L02L02L04L02L00D11D02LH·TAB21/03A·BIS29/03H·NAF04/04A·BIL11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.481.480.571.290.401.67
vs Stronger (27)0.441.590.621.380.291.79
vs Similar (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %31% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DravinjaDravinja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W11D01L11D00D10W20W11D11DH·BIL21/03A·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05H·KRŠ16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.690.560.500.93
vs Stronger (4)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.640.640.690.380.580.92
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (43)
€3m
BRI (26)
€3m
BEL (31)
€2m
NAF (24)
€2m
TRI (32)
€2m
BIS (39)
€2m
DEK (50)
€2m
RUD (52)
€2m
SL (36)
€2m
BIL (46)
€2m
ILI (46)
€2m
KRK (42)
€2m
DRA (34)
€1m
KRŠ (36)
€1m
JES (35)
€1m
Jesenice and Dravinja have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
JES wins
0
Draws
0
DRA wins

Head-to-head

Jesenice vs Dravinja · H/A from JES
DateH/AGameScore
15/11/25ADravinja Vs JES0-2

JeseniceJesenice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26AKrka Vs JES3-2
10/05/26HJES Vs Rudar2-1
07/05/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs JES1-0
30/04/26HJES Vs Triglav0-3
26/04/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs JES8-1
18/04/26HJES Vs Beltinci0-2
11/04/26ABilje Vs JES2-0
04/04/26HJES Vs Nafta0-2
29/03/26ABistrica Vs JES1-1
21/03/26HJES Vs Tabor Sežana2-2

DravinjaDravinja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HDRA Vs Krško2-1
11/05/26AGorica Vs DRA1-1
06/05/26HDRA Vs Ilirija2-1
30/04/26HDRA Vs Krka1-0
25/04/26ARudar Vs DRA1-1
19/04/26HDRA Vs Slovan Ljubljana2-1
11/04/26ATriglav Vs DRA2-1
04/04/26HDRA Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-1
28/03/26ABeltinci Vs DRA1-1
21/03/26HDRA Vs Bilje1-0

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Jesenice
Jesenice
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.62
HomeDLLLW0.64
AwayDLLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%14%13%
AVG goals3.213.003.40
Over 1.5 %83%86%80%
Over 2.5 %59%71%47%
Over 3.5 %34%29%40%
Scored0.900.930.87
Conceded2.312.072.53
BTTS45%50%40%
Clean Sheet17%14%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Dravinja
Dravinja
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.26
HomeDWWWW1.48
AwayLDLDD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.562.083.04
Over 1.5 %78%64%92%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %18%8%28%
Scored1.120.921.32
Conceded1.441.161.72
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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