Jong PSV U21’s recent 1-3 loss to Almere City has left them rattled, yet the model still favours a home win, assigning a 52 % chance to that outcome. The draw sits at 26 % and the away side’s 22 % chance of victory is the smallest. The expected total of 2.8 goals translates to an average of about 2.8, but the most probable total is 2 goals, a 25 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.2 % chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest.
At home, Jong PSV U21 average 2.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, while FC OSS, playing away against stronger opponents, averages 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded. This disparity supports the model’s edge on a home win.
The model’s suggested picks are all heavily weighted toward low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.8 %), and Under 5.5 (92.2 %). Each pick carries its own probability and the edge percentages highlight where the model outperforms the market.
Results analysis
The win extends Jong PSV U21’s recent form, keeping the home side’s momentum alive after a narrow 1-0 victory. The model’s favourite was a Home win, with a 51 % probability, and it proved correct. The final score of 1-0 matched the predicted outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.9 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.8 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 92.2 %. All eight picks settled in the model’s favour, confirming the prediction’s overall accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jong PSV U21 win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied 58.7% · @ 1.58
Edge
-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 21.5% · @ 4.31
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.61
Dafabet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.33
FC OSS win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.71
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
4.90
Pinnacle
4.81
10Bet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jong PSV U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.87
1.73
1.53
1.53
2.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.67
1.57
1.86
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.72
2.00
1.88
1.25
1.60
2.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.57
1.53
2.00
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
2.15
1.00
2.67
1.14
1.71
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.12
1.89
1.56
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.2%
@ 1.10-5.1%
Under 1.5
20.8%
@ 5.94+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.41
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.39-11.9%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.79+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
888Sport
2.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
@ 2.00-14.4%
Under 3.5
67.6%
@ 1.76+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.13
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
@ 1.45-7.2%
No
43.2%
@ 2.56+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Unibet
1.44
No
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
10Bet
2.60
1xBet
2.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 8.57+6.9%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.89+4.0%
1-0 ✓
8.8%@ 10.62+4.6%
2-0
8.7%@ 9.98+4.2%
0-0
6.8%@ 18.59+4.3%
1-2
6.2%@ 13.97+3.0%
3-1
5.7%@ 10.31+1.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.30+1.4%
Jong PSV U21 goals ↓
FC OSS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
5.2%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.8%
12%
6.2%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.7%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.1%
5.7%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jong PSV U21 goals (down), columns = FC OSS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Jong PSV U21 is 0.32 points better than FC OSS in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Jong PSV U21 is 0.32 goals better than FC OSS in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Jong PSV U21 is 8.7 percentage points better than FC OSS in terms of average possession (52% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Jong PSV U21
For 6.9 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC OSS
For 5.3 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 15.0 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong PSV U21
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.0
11.4
3.2
2.8
3.5
24.0
23.1
24.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.1
10.1
11.8
3.5
3.2
3.8
24.5
23.1
25.4
vs Weaker (30)
10.5
9.9
11.2
2.9
2.6
3.3
23.7
23.1
24.5
% over line
60%
52%
68%
38%
24%
52%
64%
64%
64%
% under line
40%
48%
32%
62%
76%
48%
36%
36%
36%
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
12.4
11.4
4.0
4.0
4.1
29.2
31.0
27.4
vs Stronger (22)
12.2
13.1
11.4
3.9
3.5
4.2
27.8
29.5
26.4
vs Similar (28)
11.8
12.0
11.5
4.1
4.3
3.9
30.3
32.0
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
78%
84%
72%
54%
60%
48%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
22%
16%
28%
46%
40%
52%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.0%
@ 1.42-0.4%
Under 9.5
36.0%
@ 2.58+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Under
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.63
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Unibet
2.45
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
74.8%
Under 21.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jong PSV U21 or Draw✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.17
Edge
-6.7%
51%
26%
23%
covers Jong PSV U21 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Jong PSV U21 or FC OSS✓ Hit
73.9%
Avg Implied 79.0% · @ 1.18
Edge
-5.1%
51%
26%
23%
covers Jong PSV U21 + FC OSS
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Draw or FC OSS✗ Miss
52.9%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.27
Edge
+11.8%
51%
26%
23%
covers Draw + FC OSS
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.30
888Sport
2.30
William Hil
2.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.7%
@ 1.07-5.4%
Under
18.3%
@ 7.27+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Under
1xBet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.7%
@ 1.42-14.4%
Under
49.3%
@ 2.66+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Marathonbet
2.69
10Bet
2.65
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 2.34-15.4%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.54+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.40
888Sport
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Jong PSV U21 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 4.45-11.5%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.17+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
FC OSS over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.1%
@ 1.32+0.8%
Under
28.9%
@ 3.11-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Betano
3.15
FC OSS over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.2%
@ 2.55-1.1%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.45+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.56
Under
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
FC OSS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.9%
@ 5.90-2.7%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.10+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.10
888Sport
6.00
10Bet
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
FC OSS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 16.19-2.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jong PSV U21, so a minus line means Jong PSV U21 give that many goals of a start and FC OSS receive them. At -1, Jong PSV U21 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jong PSV U21 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: FC OSS
Jong PSV U21 -2
11.1%
@ 4.36-9.4%
Draw -2
14.6%
@ 4.62-4.7%
FC OSS +2
74.2%
@ 1.48+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Superbet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Bet365
1.44
Handicap -1 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Draw
Jong PSV U21 -1
25.8%
@ 2.42-11.0%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 3.79-2.2%
FC OSS +1
52.9%
@ 2.24+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.60
Unibet
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.70
Away
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Bet365
2.15
Handicap +1 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21 +1
73.2%
@ 1.18-2.9%
Draw +1
15.2%
@ 6.45+1.4%
FC OSS -1
11.6%
@ 8.93+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Superbet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
8.80
Superbet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Jong PSV U21)Actual: Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21 +2
88.4%
@ 1.04-1.3%
Draw +2
7.8%
@ 14.50+1.3%
FC OSS -2
3.8%
@ 24.50-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jong PSV U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.50
0.86
0.43
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.78
0.88
0.25
1.10
1.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.50
0.53
0.73
0.20
0.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.33
1.17
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.67
0.44
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.21-7.6%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 3.97+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.01-13.2%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.74+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
SBO
2.08
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
SBO
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 4.20-10.9%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.19+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
Betano
4.25
Superbet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.5%
@ 1.48-12.4%
Under
49.5%
@ 2.51+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
10Bet
2.60
Superbet
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Betano
2.40
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.1%
@ 3.26-14.4%
Under
85.9%
@ 1.30+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 8.15-8.1%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.04+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.10
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
FC OSS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.0%
@ 2.17-4.8%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.62+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
Under
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
FC OSS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 7.02-3.5%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
1xBet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
FC OSS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 21.50-2.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jong PSV U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.20
0.87
1.20
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.17
0.71
1.43
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
1.22
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC OSS) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC OSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.07
1.00
1.27
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.31
0.67
1.50
0.71
1.14
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.88
1.22
1.11
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong PSV U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.12-5.5%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 5.62+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.70
888Sport
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.5%
@ 1.60-13.3%
Under 1.5
55.5%
@ 2.20+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 2.84-14.1%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.38+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.90
888Sport
2.90
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jong PSV U21 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
57.7%
@ 1.31-12.8%
Under
42.3%
@ 3.14+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Jong PSV U21 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 2.49-17.6%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.48+17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Jong PSV U21 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 5.69-11.1%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.11+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.90
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
FC OSS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.8%
@ 1.80-4.7%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.91+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
FC OSS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.97-6.2%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.14+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
1xBet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
FC OSS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 13.50-4.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.03
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.2%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.18
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.9%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.5%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
888Sport
1.30
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.38
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+14.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
+17.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-5.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.12
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
-5.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
75.7%
1.54
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.55
+15.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.2%
1.24
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
74.2%
1.48
Superbet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Bet365
1.44
+14.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.2%
1.17
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-6.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.2%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.1%
1.32
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+0.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Jong PSV U21
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joel Van Den Berg67%
Austyn Jones50%
Fabio Kluit40%
Souleymane Sidibe20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Michael Bresser33%
Manuel Bahaty25%
Austyn Jones25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Fabio Kluit0%
Boet Mulders0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Shuryjano Cornecion0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jim Koller40%
Michael Bresser33%
Fabio Kluit20%
Shuryjano Cornecion20%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Joel Van Den Berg0%
Jordy Bawuah0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Austyn Jones0%
Samuel Dumbili0%
Kyano Penso0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Austyn Jones75%
Fabio Kluit40%
Shuryjano Cornecion40%
Joel Van Den Berg33%
Jordy Bawuah33%
Samuel Dumbili25%
Madi Monamay0%
Souleymane Sidibe0%
Essien Bassey0%
Boet Mulders0%
Manuel Bahaty0%
Michael Bresser0%
Jim Koller0%
Gino Verhulst0%
Fabian Merién0%
Khadim Ngom0%
Kyano Penso0%
FC OSS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcelencio Esajas33%
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Maurilio de Lannoy33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Mauresmo Hinoke33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Marcelencio Esajas0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcelencio Esajas33%
Mert Erkan33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Franslyn Nsingi0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franslyn Nsingi33%
Richard van der Venne0%
Mike Havekotte0%
Delano Vianello0%
Leonel Miguel0%
Ilounga Pata0%
Marcelencio Esajas0%
Julian Kuijpers0%
Maurilio de Lannoy0%
Mauresmo Hinoke0%
Mert Erkan0%
Kyanno Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Jong PSV U21's squad is €3m more valuable than FC OSS's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Jong PSV U21's midfield is €2m more valuable than FC OSS's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Jong PSV U21 and FC OSS have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht