Juventus are tipped to win, with a 48% chance of triumph, a 30% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of an AC Milan victory. The model expects 2.3 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.8%. Juventus, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, have averaged 2.5 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded, while AC Milan, on the road, average 1.0 goal scored and 0.83 conceded. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%, edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%, edge 3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%, edge 6%), Under 5.5 (97.2%, edge 4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%, edge 5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%, edge 4%). Both teams have been on two-game winning runs, with Juventus’ last win 2-0 over Parma and AC Milan’s last 2-0 over Venezia.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Juventus win
46.9%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.10
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.14
Dafabet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.27
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Pinnacle
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
AC Milan win
23.2%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.62
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.82
Bet365
3.80
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Juventus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.20
2.50
0.25
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.65
1.82
0.82
1.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.97
1.29
1.07
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
1.05
1.44
1.22
1.80
0.90
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.35-1.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
@ 3.12+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.11-5.0%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.74+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 3.77-5.0%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.25+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
45.9%
@ 1.84-5.0%
No
54.1%
@ 1.90+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
William Hil
1.83
No
Betfair
1.95
Unibet
1.94
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 5.95+6.3%
1-0
12.8%@ 6.57+5.9%
0-0
11.4%@ 8.72+6.2%
2-0
9.7%@ 9.30+4.8%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.31+3.3%
0-1
7.9%@ 9.28+3.0%
1-2
5.7%@ 11.50+1.8%
3-0
4.5%@ 17.66+1.9%
Juventus goals ↓
AC Milan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.7%
8.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Juventus goals (down), columns = AC Milan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Juventus is 0.03 points worse than AC Milan in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Juventus is 0.21 goals better than AC Milan in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Juventus is 0.03 goals better than AC Milan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Juventus is 5.7 percentage points better than AC Milan in terms of average possession (58% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Juventus
For 7.1 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Milan
For 2.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juventus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.4
3.6
3.5
3.7
23.5
22.4
24.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.4
9.4
9.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
24.1
24.9
23.2
vs Weaker (33)
9.9
10.4
9.4
3.5
3.2
3.6
23.1
20.9
25.2
% over line
44%
48%
40%
60%
56%
64%
66%
60%
72%
% under line
56%
52%
60%
40%
44%
36%
34%
40%
28%
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.5
8.7
3.7
4.2
3.3
21.8
22.0
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.4
7.5
9.3
4.4
5.1
3.6
21.0
22.0
20.0
vs Weaker (29)
8.8
9.3
8.3
3.3
3.4
3.1
22.3
21.9
22.6
% over line
42%
48%
36%
56%
72%
40%
54%
52%
56%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
44%
28%
60%
46%
48%
44%
This opponent (Juventus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.1%
@ 2.08-4.6%
Under 9.5
59.9%
@ 1.68+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Unibet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.3%
@ 1.81-5.6%
Under 3.5
53.7%
@ 1.95+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.5%
Under 21.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Juventus or Draw
71.3%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.4%
47%
30%
23%
covers Juventus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Juventus or AC Milan
69.0%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-2.6%
47%
30%
23%
covers Juventus + AC Milan
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Draw or AC Milan
59.7%
Avg Implied 54.7% · @ 1.72
Edge
+5.0%
47%
30%
23%
covers Draw + AC Milan
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Juventus over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
@ 1.23-4.1%
Under
28.7%
@ 3.79+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.06
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Unibet
3.80
Juventus over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
@ 2.20-7.0%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.63+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.22
BetVictor
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Juventus over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
@ 4.94-5.7%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.15+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Juventus over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
@ 11.29-4.5%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Unibet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.01
AC Milan over/under 0.5
Over
63.8%
@ 1.45-0.5%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.61+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
AC Milan over/under 1.5
Over
27.0%
@ 3.24-1.8%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.31+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
AC Milan over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
@ 8.80-2.2%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
AC Milan over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
@ 19.00-3.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Juventus, so a minus line means Juventus give that many goals of a start and AC Milan receive them. At -1, Juventus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Juventus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Juventus)
Juventus -2
6.3%
@ 9.14-3.5%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 6.04-2.8%
AC Milan +2
81.5%
@ 1.20+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Juventus)
Juventus -1
18.5%
@ 4.00-4.1%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.64-3.0%
AC Milan +1
59.7%
@ 1.71+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Unibet
3.70
Draw
Marathonbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Handicap +1 (Juventus)
Juventus +1
71.3%
@ 1.27+0.0%
Draw +1
17.5%
@ 5.05-0.5%
AC Milan -1
11.2%
@ 8.40+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Juventus)
Juventus +2
88.8%
@ 1.06+1.5%
Draw +2
8.0%
@ 10.83-0.5%
AC Milan -2
3.2%
@ 22.00-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Juventus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.25
0.64
0.45
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.45
0.20
0.60
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.53
0.44
0.67
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.43+2.4%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 2.70-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.5%
@ 3.04+0.7%
Under 1.5
68.5%
@ 1.35-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.16
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.8%
@ 8.07-1.8%
Under 2.5
90.2%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
William Hil
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Juventus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.8%
@ 1.97+3.4%
Under
49.2%
@ 1.77-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Juventus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
@ 6.01-1.8%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.10+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Juventus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 11.75-4.9%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
AC Milan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.49-0.8%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.48+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Betano
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.46
AC Milan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
@ 9.34-2.3%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
AC Milan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 14.00-5.7%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Juventus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.33
0.33
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.90
1.75
0.25
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.40
1.18
0.36
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
0.80
0.20
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.53
1.00
0.56
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.26+4.4%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 3.53-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Under
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.64
Betano
3.55
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 2.26+3.0%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.59-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
William Hil
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 5.03-1.1%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.14+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
10Bet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Juventus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.8%
@ 1.66+3.0%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.10-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Juventus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.2%
@ 4.33-3.3%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.18+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Juventus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 9.50-5.2%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
AC Milan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.2%
@ 2.06+1.1%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.69-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
AC Milan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
@ 6.63-1.8%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.07+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
6.90
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
AC Milan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 11.75-5.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.02
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.3%
Under 4.5
92.0%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.06
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
+1.8%
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+1.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+5.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.8%
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+11.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+1.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
+3.3%
Away +2 handicap
81.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+6.3%
Under 11.5 corners
81.1%
1.22
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+6.4%
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+5.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+4.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.0%
1.31
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
+1.8%
Under 4.5 cards
72.6%
1.56
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.40
-
+12.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
71.6%
1.39
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
-
+5.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
-4.1%
Home or Draw
71.3%
1.28
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
-2.4%
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.22
+0.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Juventus · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dušan Vlahović35%
Jérémie Boga24%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jonathan David20%
Weston McKennie19%
Federico Gatti14%
Filip Kostić13%
Juan Cabal11%
Bremer10%
Francisco Conceição10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Andrea Cambiaso6%
Loïs Openda6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Pierre Kalulu4%
Fabio Miretti3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Locatelli23%
Juan Cabal21%
Bremer16%
Lloyd Kelly15%
Weston McKennie12%
Teun Koopmeiners11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Francisco Conceição10%
Kenan Yıldız9%
João Mário8%
Federico Gatti7%
Fabio Miretti6%
Pierre Kalulu6%
Jérémie Boga6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Khéphren Thuram4%
Filip Kostić4%
Edon Zhegrova4%
Michele Di Gregorio3%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jonathan David0%
Dušan Vlahović0%
Emil Holm0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kenan Yıldız17%
Francisco Conceição12%
Jonathan David11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Weston McKennie10%
Pierre Kalulu10%
Fabio Miretti10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Dušan Vlahović9%
João Mário8%
Bremer6%
Filip Kostić4%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Manuel Locatelli4%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Federico Gatti0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dušan Vlahović26%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jérémie Boga18%
Francisco Conceição14%
Khéphren Thuram11%
Jonathan David11%
Weston McKennie8%
Federico Gatti7%
Bremer6%
Fabio Miretti6%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Loïs Openda3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Andrea Cambiaso2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Filip Kostić0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Pierre Kalulu0%
AC Milan · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Leão29%
Christian Pulišić24%
Christopher Nkunku21%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Strahinja Pavlović14%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Alexis Saelemaekers8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Youssouf Fofana6%
Luka Modrić6%
Santiago Giménez6%
Niclas Füllkrug5%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Samuele Ricci3%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pervis Estupiñán29%
Fikayo Tomori19%
Strahinja Pavlović16%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Rafael Leão16%
Alexis Saelemaekers13%
Matteo Gabbia13%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Luka Modrić11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Zachary Athekame11%
Mike Maignan10%
Davide Bartesaghi9%
Koni De Winter7%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek6%
Christian Pulišić0%
Christopher Nkunku0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christian Pulišić12%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Alexis Saelemaekers11%
Rafael Leão10%
Christopher Nkunku9%
Luka Modrić8%
Fikayo Tomori8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Ardon Jashari6%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek3%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Leão26%
Christian Pulišić21%
Santiago Giménez17%
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christopher Nkunku12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Matteo Gabbia6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Alexis Saelemaekers5%
Samuele Ricci3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Luka Modrić0%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Koni De Winter0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
Davide Bartesaghi0%
David Odogu0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Juventus's squad is €16m less valuable than AC Milan's (€569m vs €585m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Juventus's attack is €16m more valuable than AC Milan's (€240m vs €223m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Juventus's midfield is €13m less valuable than AC Milan's (€140m vs €153m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Juventus's defence is €20m less valuable than AC Milan's (€189m vs €209m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina