PythiaFootballBETA
Juventus is the clear favourite to win against Fiorentina, with a 62% chance of securing a home win. This is largely due to their impressive home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 2 goals scored and only 0.73 conceded. In contrast, Fiorentina struggles on the road against stronger teams, conceding an average of 3 goals while scoring just 0.5.
The model predicts a total of 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely score being 2-0 in favour of Juventus, occurring 12.2% of the time. The model's selection is a home win, with Juventus also likely to score over 1.5 goals, occurring 75.9% of the time. Other model selections include Over 21.5 fouls (72.4%), Under 3.5 goals (71.7%), and no other selections are mentioned. Juventus has a 62% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 14% chance of losing. The suggested picks have the following probabilities: Over 1.5 (75.9%), Over 21.5 fouls (72.4%), and Under 3.5 (71.7%).
The away win by Fiorentina over Juventus was a major upset, as the win extends their run of draws. The final score was 0-2 in favour of Fiorentina. The model's selection, a home win, was wrong, as it had a pre-match probability of 62%. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection was the favourite coming into the match. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with Over 1.5 goals hitting with a probability of 75.9%, Over 21.5 fouls hitting with a probability of 72.4%, and Under 3.5 goals hitting with a probability of 71.7%.
Juventus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 0.93 | 2.13 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 2.00 | 1.78 | 2.50 | 0.75 | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.81 | 0.57 | 2.00 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Fiorentina| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.23 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.43 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.42 | 1.08 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Fiorentina goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12% | 11% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 12% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
JuventusFiorentinaJuventus| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 23.2 | 21.7 | 24.5 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 20.0 | - | 20.0 | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | 28.0 | - | 28.0 |
| vs Similar (13) | 7.6 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 24.5 | 26.4 | 21.6 |
| vs Weaker (36) | 10.2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 19.3 | 25.1 |
| % over line | 44% | 50% | 38% | 58% | 50% | 65% | 68% | 58% | 77% |
| % under line | 56% | 50% | 62% | 42% | 50% | 35% | 32% | 42% | 23% |
Fiorentina| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 28.0 | 28.6 | 27.4 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.4 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 28.3 | 29.8 | 26.8 |
| vs Similar (21) | 8.5 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 26.8 | 27.7 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (19) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 29.2 |
| % over line | 44% | 52% | 36% | 72% | 76% | 68% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| % under line | 56% | 48% | 64% | 28% | 24% | 32% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/03/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 29/12/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/04/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 05/11/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/02/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/09/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/05/22 | A | 2-0 |
Juventus| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 3-3 |
Fiorentina| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Inter | 38 | 87 | 71% | 2.3 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 3.3 | 84% | 55% | 37% | 9.2 | 55% | 3.5 | 38% | 24.2 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 2 |  Napoli | 38 | 76 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 8.2 | 26% | 3.5 | 42% | 23.4 | 61% | 458 | 214 | 90 | 153 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 61% | 1.9 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 2.4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 8.6 | 34% | 4.1 | 66% | 27.8 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 4 |  Como | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 24% | 7.7 | 24% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.9 | 79% | 397 | 236 | 79 | 81 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 2.3 | 66% | 45% | 18% | 8.6 | 42% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 6 | Juventus | 38 | 69 | 50% | 1.8 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 2.5 | 74% | 39% | 24% | 9.2 | 37% | 3.7 | 59% | 22.3 | 61% | 480 | 210 | 124 | 146 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 58% |
| 7 |  Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.4 | 47% | 22.1 | 53% | 452 | 163 | 141 | 148 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bologna | 38 | 56 | 42% | 1.5 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 26% | 8.7 | 34% | 4.1 | 51% | 27.8 | 89% | 279 | 136 | 40 | 103 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 9 |  Lazio | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 2.1 | 66% | 32% | 16% | 7.9 | 29% | 4.9 | 76% | 25.1 | 68% | 236 | 78 | 69 | 88 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 10 |  Udinese | 38 | 50 | 37% | 1.3 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 2.4 | 68% | 45% | 21% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.7 | 53% | 25.1 | 79% | 180 | 41 | 64 | 76 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 2.5 | 74% | 55% | 21% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 24.9 | 68% | 212 | 78 | 57 | 77 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Parma | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 1.9 | 58% | 29% | 16% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.9 | 61% | 24.3 | 79% | 149 | 36 | 47 | 66 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 |  Torino | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 2.8 | 74% | 63% | 29% | 8.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 44% | 24.5 | 68% | 124 | 40 | 54 | 31 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 14 |  Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 2.4 | 76% | 50% | 18% | 8.9 | 37% | 4.1 | 58% | 28.6 | 89% | 196 | 62 | 37 | 97 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 24% | 1.1 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 2.4 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.8 | 78% | 28.1 | 92% | 203 | 55 | 64 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 16 |  Genoa | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 76% | 53% | 16% | 8.6 | 37% | 4.5 | 76% | 27.4 | 87% | 174 | 70 | 30 | 74 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 |  Lecce | 38 | 38 | 26% | 1.0 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 9.6 | 58% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.7 | 74% | 118 | 66 | 16 | 36 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 46% | 26.4 | 84% | 76 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 38 | 21 | 8% | 0.6 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 2.3 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.0 | 42% | 4.1 | 54% | 25.3 | 74% | 65 | 18 | 18 | 29 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 20 |  Pisa | 38 | 18 | 5% | 0.5 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 2.6 | 66% | 53% | 32% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.8 | 53% | 24.7 | 79% | 104 | 40 | 42 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 40% |