Juventus’ defensive record at home - averaging just 0.82 goals conceded - sets the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model sees a 47% chance of a home win, 32% for a draw, and 21% for a Lazio victory, making a Juventus win the clear favourite. With an expected total of 2.0 goals, the most likely scoreline is 1-0, carrying a 15.7% probability. Juventus have scored 1.82 goals per match at home against weaker opposition, while Lazio, playing away against stronger teams, average only 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. Recent form shows Juventus on a two-game winning streak after a 2-0 win over Parma, whereas Lazio are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Genoa 1-0. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.0%), Under 4.5 (94.8%), and Home +2 handicap (93.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Juventus win
46.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lazio win
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Juventus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.20
2.50
0.25
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.65
1.82
0.82
1.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
0.86
1.57
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.79
1.71
1.00
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.4%
Under 1.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.0%
Under 2.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.1%
Under 3.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.7%
0-0
15.0%
1-1
14.0%
2-0
10.5%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
4.8%
3-0
4.3%
Juventus goals ↓
Lazio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.0%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.8%
1.2%
0.2%
2
11%
7.9%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
4.3%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Juventus goals (down), columns = Lazio goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Juventus is 0.39 points better than Lazio in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Juventus is 0.53 goals better than Lazio in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Juventus is 0.16 goals better than Lazio in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.05).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Juventus is 7.2 percentage points better than Lazio in terms of average possession (58% vs 50%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Juventus or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
32%
21%
covers Juventus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juventus or Lazio
67.8%
Avg Implied -
47%
32%
21%
covers Juventus + Lazio
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lazio
53.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
32%
21%
covers Draw + Lazio
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Juventus over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 1.5
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 0.5
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Juventus, so a minus line means Juventus give that many goals of a start and Lazio receive them. At -1, Juventus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Juventus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Juventus)
Juventus -2
7.6%
Draw -2
14.2%
Lazio +2
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Juventus)
Juventus -1
21.7%
Draw -1
24.9%
Lazio +1
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Juventus)
Juventus +1
78.8%
Draw +1
14.5%
Lazio -1
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Juventus)
Juventus +2
93.4%
Draw +2
5.2%
Lazio -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Juventus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.25
0.64
0.45
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.47
0.80
0.13
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.43
1.00
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.29
0.36
0.57
0.43
0.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Juventus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Juventus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.33
0.33
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.90
1.75
0.25
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.40
1.18
0.36
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Juventus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juventus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Juventus's squad is €329m more valuable than Lazio's (€569m vs €240m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Juventus's attack is €180m more valuable than Lazio's (€240m vs €60m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Juventus's midfield is €54m more valuable than Lazio's (€140m vs €86m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Juventus's defence is €96m more valuable than Lazio's (€189m vs €93m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →