Karlovac 1919 are clear favorites to win at home, with a 56 % chance of victory, a 27 % draw probability and a 17 % chance of an away win. The model predicts an average of 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal total (27 %). The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Karlovac, with a 13.1 % chance. Karlovac’s home form shows they score 1.29 goals per match and concede 1.07 against opponents of similar strength, while Hrvace’s away record is 0.64 goals scored and 1.79 conceded under the same conditions. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (96.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (95.1 %), Home +2 handicap (94.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.6 %) and Under 4.5 (89.9 %). Karlovac’s recent form, after two straight defeats, shows a 0-3 loss to Sesvete, while Hrvace, after five consecutive defeats, fell 0-3 to Croatia Zmijavci.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karlovac 1919 win
57.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hrvace win
15.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karlovac 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.53
1.14
1.07
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.53
1.14
1.07
0.88
1.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.29
1.14
0.69
1.62
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.29
2.00
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
1.43
1.00
1.00
0.69
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.9%
Under 2.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.8%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
12.3%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.7%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.1%
Karlovac 1919 goals ↓
Hrvace goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
5.7%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.3%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karlovac 1919 goals (down), columns = Hrvace goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Karlovac 1919 is 0.18 points better than Hrvace in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Karlovac 1919 is 0.12 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Karlovac 1919 is 0.09 goals better than Hrvace in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karlovac 1919 or Draw
84.2%
Avg Implied -
58%
27%
16%
covers Karlovac 1919 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 or Hrvace
73.4%
Avg Implied -
58%
27%
16%
covers Karlovac 1919 + Hrvace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hrvace
42.5%
Avg Implied -
58%
27%
16%
covers Draw + Hrvace
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karlovac 1919, so a minus line means Karlovac 1919 give that many goals of a start and Hrvace receive them. At -1, Karlovac 1919 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karlovac 1919 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karlovac 1919)
Karlovac 1919 -2
14.1%
Draw -2
18.2%
Hrvace +2
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karlovac 1919)
Karlovac 1919 -1
32.3%
Draw -1
25.2%
Hrvace +1
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Karlovac 1919)
Karlovac 1919 +1
84.2%
Draw +1
10.9%
Hrvace -1
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Karlovac 1919)
Karlovac 1919 +2
95.1%
Draw +2
3.8%
Hrvace -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karlovac 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.31
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.57
0.64
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.52
0.60
0.50
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.7%
Under 0.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.8%
Under 1.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.7%
Under 2.5
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karlovac 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.87
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvace) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hrvace
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.71
0.50
0.25
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (23)
0.30
0.91
0.40
0.50
0.23
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.7%
Under 1.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvace over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Karlovac 1919's squad is €1m more valuable than Hrvace's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Karlovac 1919's attack is €1m more valuable than Hrvace's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Karlovac 1919 and Hrvace have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Karlovac 1919 and Hrvace have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb