Keçiörengücü are the clear favourite, with the model rating a 62 % chance of a home win. Their 2.46 average goals scored at home against similar-strength opposition, combined with a modest 1.15 conceded, gives them the edge over Uşaklıspor’s 1.1 away goals for and 1.2 conceded. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.9 % chance. The model’s pick is a home win, and the draw and away win probabilities sit at 23 % and 16 % respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99 %), Under 7.5 (99 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9 % with a 7 % edge), Under 6.5 (97.1 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.7 % with a 5 % edge), Home +2 handicap (94.6 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (93.4 % with a 5 % edge). Both sides have recently drawn their last matches, but Keçiörengücü’s home form gives them the advantage.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Keçiörengücü, fell short as the match ended 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent draws. The model had given the home side a 61% chance of victory, but that call was wrong. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely score of 2-0 only in goal count, not in outcome. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95%, Home +2 handicap hit at 94.5%, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 93.4%. All selections performed as predicted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Keçiörengücü win✗ Miss
61.0%
Avg Implied 57.5% · @ 1.59
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Dafabet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
William Hil
1.60
Draw✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.78
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.06
Dafabet
3.95
Bet365
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Betano
3.80
Ümraniyespor win✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.96
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.40
Pinnacle
5.36
1xBet
5.02
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Keçiörengücü
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.47
2.73
1.13
1.40
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (26)
2.31
1.42
2.79
1.07
1.75
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ümraniyespor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.20
1.87
1.07
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
2.00
2.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.08
1.85
0.92
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
@ 1.24+5.1%
Under 1.5
20.5%
@ 3.62-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
3.88
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.80+3.4%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 1.94-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
Unibet
1.85
SBO
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
1.97
SBO
1.96
Betano
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.9%
@ 2.96+1.7%
Under 3.5
67.1%
@ 1.35-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
@ 1.82+2.0%
No
47.2%
@ 1.88-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.80
No
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 6.77+4.5%
2-0
10.8%@ 7.02+4.5%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.17+3.8%
1-0
9.9%@ 6.29+2.9%
3-0
7.1%@ 11.12+3.2%
3-1
6.5%@ 11.53+2.7%
0-0
6.5%@ 10.22+2.2%
1-2
4.6%@ 14.21+1.5%
Keçiörengücü goals ↓
Ümraniyespor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.9%
11%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.1%
6.5%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keçiörengücü goals (down), columns = Ümraniyespor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Batman Petrolspor
2.60
Bursaspor
2.40
Sarıyer
2.00
Kayserispor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.80
Mardin 1969
1.80
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Fatih Karagümrük
1.60
Muğlaspor
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.20
Antalyaspor
1.20
Pendikspor
1.00
Vanspor FK
0.80
Esenler Erokspor
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Sivasspor
0.60
Ümraniyespor
0.60
İstanbulspor
0.40
Boluspor
0.00
Keçiörengücü is 1.00 points better than Ümraniyespor in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Keçiörengücü
2.40
Batman Petrolspor
2.00
Bursaspor
2.00
Manisa F.K.
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.60
Sarıyer
1.60
Mardin 1969
1.60
Iğdır FK
1.40
Pendikspor
1.40
Kayserispor
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Vanspor FK
1.00
Bandırmaspor
1.00
Sivasspor
1.00
İstanbulspor
1.00
Ümraniyespor
0.80
Muğlaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.40
Bodrum FK
0.40
Boluspor
0.20
Keçiörengücü is 1.60 goals better than Ümraniyespor in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Muğlaspor
0.40
Bandırmaspor
0.60
Esenler Erokspor
0.60
Mardin 1969
0.60
Bursaspor
0.60
Kayserispor
0.60
Sarıyer
0.80
Batman Petrolspor
0.80
Iğdır FK
0.80
Bodrum FK
0.80
Ümraniyespor
1.20
Fatih Karagümrük
1.20
Keçiörengücü
1.60
Sivasspor
1.60
Manisa F.K.
1.60
Antalyaspor
2.00
Vanspor FK
2.20
Boluspor
2.20
Pendikspor
2.20
İstanbulspor
2.60
Keçiörengücü is 0.40 goals worse than Ümraniyespor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Esenler Erokspor
61%
Bandırmaspor
60%
Bursaspor
59%
Manisa F.K.
55%
Antalyaspor
55%
Kayserispor
53%
Batman Petrolspor
52%
Ümraniyespor
52%
Pendikspor
51%
Sarıyer
50%
Iğdır FK
49%
Mardin 1969
49%
Sivasspor
48%
Bodrum FK
46%
Keçiörengücü
45%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
İstanbulspor
44%
Muğlaspor
43%
Vanspor FK
42%
Boluspor
41%
Keçiörengücü is 6.6 percentage points worse than Ümraniyespor in terms of average possession (45% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Keçiörengücü
For 4.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ümraniyespor
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Keçiörengücü
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.3
7.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
23.4
23.5
23.3
vs Stronger (7)
6.8
5.5
7.5
3.4
3.5
3.4
20.8
24.0
19.2
vs Similar (43)
8.2
8.6
7.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
23.8
23.4
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
27%
29%
26%
58%
62%
54%
73%
67%
78%
% under line
73%
71%
74%
42%
38%
46%
27%
33%
22%
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ümraniyespor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.6
9.5
4.0
3.8
4.2
23.0
22.1
23.9
vs Stronger (7)
9.0
8.5
9.7
4.3
5.2
3.0
23.0
22.8
23.3
vs Similar (43)
9.0
8.6
9.5
3.9
3.5
4.4
23.0
22.0
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
36%
42%
50%
44%
56%
63%
56%
71%
% under line
61%
64%
58%
50%
56%
44%
37%
44%
29%
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kayserispor
10.0
Sivasspor
9.7
Antalyaspor
9.3
Bodrum FK
9.3
Bandırmaspor
9.2
Bursaspor
9.1
Muğlaspor
9.0
Ümraniyespor
9.0
Iğdır FK
8.9
Esenler Erokspor
8.8
Fatih Karagümrük
8.8
Mardin 1969
8.7
Manisa F.K.
8.6
Pendikspor
8.5
İstanbulspor
8.3
Batman Petrolspor
8.3
Keçiörengücü
8.3
Vanspor FK
8.3
Boluspor
8.2
Sarıyer
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Muğlaspor
7.0
Batman Petrolspor
6.7
Antalyaspor
5.2
Vanspor FK
5.1
Sarıyer
5.1
Pendikspor
5.0
Esenler Erokspor
5.0
Boluspor
5.0
Sivasspor
5.0
Manisa F.K.
4.9
Iğdır FK
4.8
Keçiörengücü
4.7
İstanbulspor
4.7
Bandırmaspor
4.7
Kayserispor
4.5
Bursaspor
4.4
Fatih Karagümrük
4.4
Ümraniyespor
4.3
Bodrum FK
4.1
Mardin 1969
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Muğlaspor
34.5
Bursaspor
29.1
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Vanspor FK
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.1
Pendikspor
26.5
Boluspor
25.5
Batman Petrolspor
25.0
Kayserispor
24.8
Bodrum FK
24.0
Bandırmaspor
23.9
Manisa F.K.
23.6
Keçiörengücü
23.5
Iğdır FK
23.5
Sarıyer
23.4
İstanbulspor
23.4
Sivasspor
23.2
Ümraniyespor
23.2
Esenler Erokspor
22.8
Mardin 1969
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.7%
@ 2.10-0.4%
Under 9.5
56.3%
@ 1.65+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Superbet
1.58
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.6%
Under 21.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Keçiörengücü or Draw✓ Hit
84.2%
Avg Implied 81.3% · @ 1.13
Edge
+2.8%
61%
23%
16%
covers Keçiörengücü + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Keçiörengücü or Ümraniyespor✗ Miss
76.8%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.20
Edge
+0.4%
61%
23%
16%
covers Keçiörengücü + Ümraniyespor
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Ümraniyespor✓ Hit
39.0%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.18
Edge
-3.2%
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Ümraniyespor
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.1%
@ 1.13+4.0%
Under
13.9%
@ 5.20-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Superbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.8%
@ 1.70+4.2%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.04-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.7%
@ 3.14+2.2%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.31-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Keçiörengücü over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 6.55-0.4%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.09+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Betfair
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.1%
@ 1.57+1.2%
Under
39.9%
@ 2.25-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.35
BetVictor
2.30
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.5%
@ 3.75-1.3%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.23+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.75
1xBet
3.72
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 9.86-3.0%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.10
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Ümraniyespor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 26.75-2.2%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Keçiörengücü, so a minus line means Keçiörengücü give that many goals of a start and Ümraniyespor receive them. At -1, Keçiörengücü must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Keçiörengücü win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Keçiörengücü)Actual: Ümraniyespor
Keçiörengücü -2
18.7%
@ 4.76+0.3%
Draw -2
19.0%
@ 4.36-1.0%
Ümraniyespor +2
62.3%
@ 1.42+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.25
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
3.65
Away
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.35
Handicap -1 (Keçiörengücü)Actual: Ümraniyespor
Keçiörengücü -1
37.7%
@ 2.54+3.4%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.35-2.6%
Ümraniyespor +1
39.0%
@ 2.18-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Marathonbet
2.52
Unibet
2.33
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
2.85
Away
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.08
Handicap +1 (Keçiörengücü)Actual: Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü +1
84.2%
@ 1.14+7.8%
Draw +1
10.3%
@ 5.80-4.6%
Ümraniyespor -1
5.5%
@ 10.00-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Keçiörengücü)Actual: Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü +2
94.5%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Draw +2
4.1%
@ 17.00-1.4%
Ümraniyespor -2
1.4%
@ 34.00-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Keçiörengücü
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.53
0.53
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (26)
1.38
0.65
1.57
0.43
1.17
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ümraniyespor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.48
0.85
0.38
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.6%
@ 1.34+2.5%
Under 0.5
28.4%
@ 3.00-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.60-1.4%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.43+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.67
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 6.16-0.7%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.09+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.50
1xBet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.66+0.4%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.11-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 4.17-1.3%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.18+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.15
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 9.00-5.2%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.0%
@ 2.70+0.6%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.41-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
Superbet
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.0%
@ 9.58-2.9%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Keçiörengücü
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
1.20
0.60
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.77
1.21
0.64
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ümraniyespor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ümraniyespor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.60
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.54
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Keçiörengücü) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.5%
@ 1.20+5.0%
Under 0.5
18.5%
@ 3.92-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Under
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.88
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.8%
@ 2.01+1.7%
Under 1.5
52.2%
@ 1.72-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Under
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.7%
@ 4.06-1.0%
Under 2.5
78.3%
@ 1.20+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.98
Marathonbet
3.92
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keçiörengücü over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.5%
@ 1.45-0.2%
Under
36.5%
@ 2.55+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.50
Keçiörengücü over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.5%
@ 3.01-3.0%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.32+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Keçiörengücü over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.35-4.5%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.05+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Ümraniyespor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.6%
@ 2.21-2.1%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.58+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Ümraniyespor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 7.20-1.7%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Ümraniyespor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 11.25-6.2%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
William Hil
1.10
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
84.2%
1.13
Betano
1.19
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.2%
1.12
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.5%
1.24
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.2%
1.18
1xBet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.5%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.8%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
76.5%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.5%
1.32
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.34
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
William Hil
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Keçiörengücü
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Diouf100%
İbrahim Akdağ33%
Süleyman Luş33%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan33%
Francis Ezeh25%
Ishak Karaoğul25%
H. Ayan25%
Moryke Fofana0%
O. Roshi0%
Jefferson0%
Wellington Nascimento0%
A. Çelik0%
E. Satılmış0%
M. Keskin0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
İbrahim Akdağ100%
E. Satılmış33%
M. Diouf25%
O. Roshi25%
Wellington Nascimento25%
Francis Ezeh25%
M. Keskin25%
Moryke Fofana0%
Jefferson0%
A. Çelik0%
Süleyman Luş0%
Ishak Karaoğul0%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan0%
H. Ayan0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
İbrahim Akdağ33%
O. Roshi25%
Jefferson25%
Francis Ezeh25%
H. Ayan25%
M. Diouf0%
Moryke Fofana0%
Wellington Nascimento0%
A. Çelik0%
E. Satılmış0%
M. Keskin0%
Süleyman Luş0%
Ishak Karaoğul0%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Francis Ezeh75%
M. Diouf50%
İbrahim Akdağ33%
Oğuzcan Çalışkan33%
Moryke Fofana0%
O. Roshi0%
Jefferson0%
Wellington Nascimento0%
A. Çelik0%
E. Satılmış0%
M. Keskin0%
Süleyman Luş0%
Ishak Karaoğul0%
H. Ayan0%
Enes Yilmaz0%
Ümraniyespor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco33%
S. Hostikka0%
C. Topaloğlu0%
A. Yaşar0%
S. Göksu0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
O. Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
C. Topaloğlu33%
S. Göksu33%
Tomislav Glumac33%
O. Yıldırım33%
Andrej Đokanović33%
S. Hostikka0%
Álex Blanco0%
A. Yaşar0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
S. Göksu33%
S. Hostikka0%
Álex Blanco0%
C. Topaloğlu0%
A. Yaşar0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
O. Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hostikka33%
Álex Blanco33%
C. Topaloğlu0%
A. Yaşar0%
S. Göksu0%
Tomislav Glumac0%
O. Yıldırım0%
Andrej Đokanović0%
Melih Bostan0%
Berat Yılmaz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
BF (31)
€13m
FK (23)
€12m
KAY (23)
€12m
EE (23)
€11m
SIV (26)
€10m
IF (26)
€9m
MF (24)
€9m
BP (25)
€9m
İST (28)
€8m
BAN (29)
€7m
ÜMR (25)
€7m
PEN (26)
€6m
M1 (25)
€6m
VF (21)
€6m
KEÇ (25)
€6m
MUĞ (19)
€6m
SAR (20)
€5m
BOL (18)
€3m
Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (10)
€10m
BF (10)
€6m
FK (9)
€5m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
EE (8)
€4m
SIV (10)
€4m
BP (10)
€4m
IF (7)
€4m
VF (10)
€3m
İST (10)
€3m
ÜMR (8)
€3m
MUĞ (8)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
SAR (7)
€2m
MF (7)
€2m
BAN (8)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
PEN (10)
€2m
BOL (5)
€1m
Keçiörengücü's attack is €1m less valuable than Ümraniyespor's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUR (5)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
EE (6)
€3m
FK (3)
€3m
BF (10)
€3m
MF (7)
€3m
SIV (5)
€3m
M1 (8)
€2m
BP (5)
€2m
ÜMR (7)
€2m
IF (7)
€2m
BAN (6)
€2m
KAY (4)
€2m
PEN (5)
€2m
KEÇ (7)
€2m
MUĞ (7)
€2m
SAR (4)
€1m
VF (2)
€1m
İST (5)
€1m
BOL (5)
€1m
Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ANT (11)
€7m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
BF (11)
€4m
FK (11)
€4m
MF (10)
€4m
İST (13)
€4m
IF (12)
€3m
BAN (15)
€3m
PEN (11)
€3m
EE (9)
€3m
BP (10)
€3m
KEÇ (11)
€3m
SIV (11)
€3m
VF (9)
€2m
M1 (9)
€2m
SAR (9)
€2m
ÜMR (10)
€2m
MUĞ (4)
€2m
BOL (8)
€1m
Keçiörengücü's defence is €1m more valuable than Ümraniyespor's (€3m vs €2m).
Turkey: 1. Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: 1. Lig stats & trends →
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Batman Petrolspor
Bursaspor
Sarıyer
Kayserispor
Mardin 1969
Iğdır FK
Manisa F.K.
Muğlaspor
Fatih Karagümrük
Bandırmaspor
Antalyaspor
Pendikspor
Esenler Erokspor
Bodrum FK
Vanspor FK
Sivasspor
İstanbulspor
Boluspor