Korona Kielce are expected to win this match, with a 48% probability of home victory. The overall shape of the match suggests a closely contested game, with a 26% chance of a draw and 26% chance of an away win. The model's pick is a home win, and the expected total goals is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%.
Korona Kielce have been in good form at home, scoring an average of 1.44 goals and conceding 0.78 against opponents of similar strength. Motor Lublin, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, scoring 1.64 goals and conceding 1.55 against similar opponents.
The model suggests Over 1.5 and Over 21.5 fouls. Over 1.5 has an 78.8% probability, while Over 21.5 fouls has an 83.4% probability. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 26%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Korona Kielce, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s home-win call. The model had given the home side a 47 % chance, but the outcome was a draw, so the favourite was wrong. The game’s final score of 1-1 matched the most likely score of 1-1, which had a 12.7 % probability. The model’s selections performed impressively: Under 7.5 goals hit with 99 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 97 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.7 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 92.3 %. The match reflected both sides’ recent form, each coming off a 1-1 draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Korona Kielce win✗ Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied 47.5% · @ 1.95
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.00
Dafabet
1.99
SBO
1.99
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Draw✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.50
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Superbet
3.55
Motor Lublin win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.55
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.79
Betano
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Korona Kielce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.23
1.29
1.14
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.88
1.00
2.00
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.00
1.40
0.80
1.27
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motor Lublin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.60
1.44
1.31
1.36
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
2.00
0.80
1.20
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.43
1.73
1.36
1.60
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
@ 1.21+1.4%
Under 1.5
21.9%
@ 3.99-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.21
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.73-1.2%
Under 2.5
46.9%
@ 2.06+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
SBO
2.11
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.9%
@ 2.77-2.7%
Under 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.40+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Unibet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.63-0.3%
No
43.4%
@ 2.15+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.63
No
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.18
888Sport
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.7%@ 6.60+5.9%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.95+3.8%
1-0
8.8%@ 8.00+3.2%
2-0
8.1%@ 9.72+3.5%
0-0
7.2%@ 11.63+3.4%
1-2
6.7%@ 11.18+2.7%
0-1
5.9%@ 11.16+1.9%
2-2
5.5%@ 11.88+1.7%
Korona Kielce goals ↓
Motor Lublin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.9%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.8%
13%
6.7%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.5%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.4%
5.2%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Korona Kielce goals (down), columns = Motor Lublin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Korona Kielce is 0.77 points better than Motor Lublin in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Korona Kielce is 0.20 goals better than Motor Lublin in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Korona Kielce is 0.87 goals better than Motor Lublin in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Korona Kielce is 2.1 percentage points better than Motor Lublin in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Korona Kielce
For 4.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motor Lublin
For 4.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Korona Kielce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.1
10.6
3.4
3.5
3.3
25.3
26.1
24.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.5
9.6
9.3
2.6
3.0
2.2
24.4
24.9
23.8
vs Similar (36)
10.7
10.3
11.0
3.8
3.7
3.9
25.7
26.7
24.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
51%
48%
54%
42%
39%
44%
72%
74%
71%
% under line
49%
52%
46%
58%
61%
56%
28%
26%
29%
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motor Lublin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.5
10.7
4.5
4.4
4.6
25.2
24.6
25.9
vs Stronger (11)
9.5
9.3
9.8
3.0
2.7
3.5
23.4
21.9
26.0
vs Similar (39)
10.3
9.6
10.9
4.9
5.0
4.8
25.7
25.6
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
52%
62%
54%
52%
56%
82%
80%
83%
% under line
43%
48%
38%
46%
48%
44%
18%
20%
17%
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
12.5
Wieczysta Kraków
11.0
Pogon Szczecin
10.6
Zaglebie Lubin
10.4
Korona Kielce
10.3
Gornik Zabrze
10.2
Motor Lublin
10.1
Slask Wroclaw
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.0
Radomiak Radom
9.9
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Piast Gliwice
9.9
GKS Katowice
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.6
Legia Warszawa
9.2
Widzew Łódź
9.2
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.2
Motor Lublin
5.0
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Raków Częstochowa
4.8
Slask Wroclaw
4.7
Jagiellonia
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.4
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Wisla Plock
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.1
Pogon Szczecin
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
GKS Katowice
3.8
Wisla Krakow
3.8
Wieczysta Kraków
3.8
Piast Gliwice
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.8
Jagiellonia
26.8
Widzew Łódź
26.5
Wieczysta Kraków
26.5
Legia Warszawa
26.2
Korona Kielce
25.4
Motor Lublin
25.3
Cracovia Krakow
25.2
Wisla Krakow
25.0
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Slask Wroclaw
24.9
Piast Gliwice
24.8
Zaglebie Lubin
24.6
GKS Katowice
23.7
Lech Poznan
23.7
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.9
Wisla Plock
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.2%
@ 2.00+2.9%
Under 9.5
50.8%
@ 1.73-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.80
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.9%
@ 1.60-1.4%
Under 3.5
44.1%
@ 2.15+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.6%
Under 21.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Korona Kielce or Draw✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.1%
47%
27%
26%
covers Korona Kielce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Korona Kielce or Motor Lublin✗ Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.2%
47%
27%
26%
covers Korona Kielce + Motor Lublin
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Draw or Motor Lublin✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.80
Edge
+0.1%
47%
27%
26%
covers Draw + Motor Lublin
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Korona Kielce over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.0%
@ 1.16+2.3%
Under
18.0%
@ 4.58-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Under
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
888Sport
4.60
Betano
4.60
Korona Kielce over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
51.2%
@ 1.84+0.8%
Under
48.8%
@ 1.87-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
888Sport
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Korona Kielce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 3.67-0.5%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.24+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Korona Kielce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 8.08-2.0%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.06+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.2%
@ 1.36+2.1%
Under
29.8%
@ 2.90-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.92
888Sport
2.90
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.1%
@ 2.73+0.1%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.41-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 6.67-1.7%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.80
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Motor Lublin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 17.44-2.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Korona Kielce, so a minus line means Korona Kielce give that many goals of a start and Motor Lublin receive them. At -1, Korona Kielce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Korona Kielce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Korona Kielce)Actual: Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce -2
11.6%
@ 7.05-1.2%
Draw -2
15.0%
@ 5.50-1.3%
Motor Lublin +2
73.5%
@ 1.26+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Superbet
6.60
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Away
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Korona Kielce)Actual: Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce -1
26.5%
@ 3.37+0.1%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.73-2.3%
Motor Lublin +1
51.9%
@ 1.79+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Away
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.79
Handicap +1 (Korona Kielce)Actual: Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce +1
74.1%
@ 1.26+3.1%
Draw +1
14.9%
@ 5.24-2.2%
Motor Lublin -1
11.0%
@ 7.48-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
4.90
Away
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Handicap +2 (Korona Kielce)Actual: Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce +2
89.0%
@ 1.06+2.8%
Draw +2
7.5%
@ 10.25-1.5%
Motor Lublin -2
3.5%
@ 19.00-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Korona Kielce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.64
0.57
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.38
0.70
0.20
0.82
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motor Lublin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.75
0.69
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.40
0.80
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.76
0.91
0.64
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.32+3.3%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.11-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.8%
@ 2.50-0.4%
Under 1.5
63.2%
@ 1.48+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 5.94-2.8%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.10+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Korona Kielce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.7%
@ 1.76-0.3%
Under
47.3%
@ 1.98+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.94
Korona Kielce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.9%
@ 4.80-3.4%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.15+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Korona Kielce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 12.38-4.0%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.26-2.3%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.58+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 7.40-3.5%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.06+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 27.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Korona Kielce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.64
0.57
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.70
0.60
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Motor Lublin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Motor Lublin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.69
0.62
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.67
0.82
0.73
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Korona Kielce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.8%
Under 1.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.6%
Under 2.5
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Korona Kielce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korona Kielce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korona Kielce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motor Lublin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motor Lublin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motor Lublin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.05
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.1%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.7%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
82.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
75.3%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.1%
1.26
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
1.26
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
1.25
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.0%
1.26
888Sport
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
73.5%
1.26
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.32
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.2%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
+2.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Korona Kielce
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariusz Stępiński75%
Morgan Fassbender25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Nono0%
Patrik Hellebrand0%
Martin Remacle0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Kamil Jakubczyk0%
Daniel Bąk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kamil Jakubczyk50%
Slobodan Rubežić33%
Wiktor Długosz25%
Patrik Hellebrand25%
Morgan Fassbender25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Mariusz Stępiński0%
Nono0%
Martin Remacle0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Daniel Bąk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wiktor Długosz50%
Martin Remacle25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Mariusz Stępiński0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Nono0%
Patrik Hellebrand0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Morgan Fassbender0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Kamil Jakubczyk0%
Daniel Bąk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mariusz Stępiński50%
Wiktor Długosz25%
Morgan Fassbender25%
Constantinos Sotiriou0%
Slobodan Rubežić0%
Nono0%
Patrik Hellebrand0%
Martin Remacle0%
Ariel Mosór0%
Marcel Pięczek0%
Xavier Dziekoński0%
Kamil Jakubczyk0%
Daniel Bąk0%
Motor Lublin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Karol Czubak50%
Makan Aïko17%
Mbaye Ndiaye17%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Christopher Simon0%
Filip Luberecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivo Rodrigues33%
Paskal Meyer33%
Tin Plavotić25%
Marek Kristián Bartoš20%
Bartosz Bereszyński17%
Makan Aïko17%
Fábio Ronaldo17%
Mbaye Ndiaye17%
Christopher Simon17%
Filip Luberecki17%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Thomas Santos0%
Karol Czubak0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivo Rodrigues67%
Mbaye Ndiaye33%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Karol Czubak0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Makan Aïko0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Christopher Simon0%
Filip Luberecki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Karol Czubak67%
Mbaye Ndiaye50%
Christopher Simon17%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Tin Plavotić0%
Ivo Rodrigues0%
Yacine Bourhane0%
Mihai Popa0%
Marek Kristián Bartoš0%
Thomas Santos0%
Florian Haxha0%
Kamil Lukoszek0%
Makan Aïko0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Mateusz Łęgowski0%
Paskal Meyer0%
Filip Luberecki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Korona Kielce's squad is €3m less valuable than Motor Lublin's (€16m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Korona Kielce's attack is €7m less valuable than Motor Lublin's (€3m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Korona Kielce's midfield is €5m more valuable than Motor Lublin's (€7m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa