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Krka vs Ilirija Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Krka
Krka
Vs
36%
26%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Krka win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win✗ Miss
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KrkaKrka

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W22D12L10W50W11D12L31W03L12LA·BEL19/04H·TOL27/04A·BRI04/05H·BIL10/05A·RUD19/05H·SLO09/08H·TOL16/08A·DEK24/08H·DRA01/09A·ALU06/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.671.191.881.571.43
vs Stronger (7)1.001.571.251.250.672.00
vs Similar (23)1.481.701.172.081.821.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L20W21W11D11D22D22D03L25L20WA·PRI21/04H·TAB26/04A·BEL05/05H·TOL12/05A·BRI19/05H·TRI09/08A·BIS17/08H·NŠ 24/08A·TAB31/08H·BIL08/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.671.201.471.131.87
vs Stronger (9)1.221.781.801.800.501.75
vs Similar (21)1.141.620.901.301.361.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
1-0 ✓
6.1%
0-0
5.9%
0-2
5.6%
Krka goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
01234
05.9%6.3%5.6%2.9%1.1%
16.1%12%8.5%4.3%1.7%
25.4%8.3%6.4%3.3%1.2%
32.7%4.2%3.2%1.6%0.6%
41.0%1.6%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krka goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
Krka is 0.40 points better than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
Krka and Ilirija are level in goals scored per game (both 0.93).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
Krka is 0.57 goals better than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.07 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W11D00D20W01L01L21W01L11DA·BEL19/04H·TOL27/04A·BRI04/05H·BIL10/05A·RUD19/05H·SLO09/08H·TOL16/08A·DEK24/08H·DRA01/09A·ALU06/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.440.690.790.64
vs Stronger (7)0.430.710.250.500.671.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.650.500.750.820.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W10W10W10W20W02L04L00DA·PRI21/04H·TAB26/04A·BEL05/05H·TOL12/05A·BRI19/05H·TRI09/08A·BIS17/08H·NŠ 24/08A·TAB31/08H·BIL08/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.470.600.470.93
vs Stronger (9)0.560.560.800.400.250.75
vs Similar (21)0.430.860.300.700.551.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L10W30W10W11D10W02L01LA·BEL19/04H·TOL27/04A·BRI04/05H·BIL10/05A·RUD19/05H·SLO09/08H·TOL16/08A·DEK24/08H·DRA01/09A·ALU06/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.000.751.190.790.79
vs Stronger (7)0.570.861.000.750.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.831.040.671.331.000.73
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W11D01L01L12L02L01L21W20WA·PRI21/04H·TAB26/04A·BEL05/05H·TOL12/05A·BRI19/05H·TRI09/08A·BIS17/08H·NŠ 24/08A·TAB31/08H·BIL08/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.730.870.670.93
vs Stronger (9)0.671.221.001.400.251.00
vs Similar (21)0.710.760.600.600.820.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Krka and Ilirija have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
KRK wins
2
Draws
1
ILI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Krka vs Ilirija · H/A from KRK
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/24HKRK Vs Ilirija1-1
03/09/23AIlirija Vs KRK1-1
04/05/23HKRK Vs Ilirija3-2
23/10/22AIlirija Vs KRK2-0

KrkaKrka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/09/24AAluminij Vs KRK2-1
01/09/24HKRK Vs Dravinja0-3
24/08/24ADekani Vs KRK1-3
16/08/24HKRK Vs Tolmin1-2
09/08/24HKRK Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-1
19/05/24ARudar Vs KRK0-5
10/05/24HKRK Vs Bilje1-0
04/05/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs KRK2-1
27/04/24HKRK Vs Tolmin2-2
19/04/24ABeltinci Vs KRK0-1

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/09/24HILI Vs Bilje2-0
31/08/24ATabor Sežana Vs ILI5-2
24/08/24HILI Vs NŠ Drava0-3
17/08/24ABistrica Vs ILI2-2
09/08/24HILI Vs Triglav2-2
19/05/24ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ILI1-1
12/05/24HILI Vs Tolmin1-1
05/05/24ABeltinci Vs ILI1-2
26/04/24HILI Vs Tabor Sežana2-0
21/04/24APrimorje Vs ILI3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Krka
Krka
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.24
HomeDWDLL1.04
AwayWLWWL1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%24%40%
AVG goals2.882.922.84
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %58%64%52%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.401.241.56
Conceded1.481.681.28
BTTS60%64%56%
Clean Sheet24%20%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW1.20
HomeWDDLW1.44
AwayLWDDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%40%24%
AVG goals2.842.842.84
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.321.441.20
Conceded1.521.401.64
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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