Krško vs Gorica Result & Analysis

Krško’s recent 0-6 loss to Tabor Sežana and Gorica’s 0-2 defeat at Krško set the tone for a match that the model favours as an away win. The probability of a Gorica victory sits at 56%, with a 25% chance of a draw and 19% for a Krško win. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is two goals, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 11.6%. Krško, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages only 0.43 goals scored and concedes 2.43, while Gorica, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries a 79.7% probability. The home win probability is 19%, the draw 25%, and the away win 56%.

The upset came early as Krško turned the tables, winning 2-0 after a 0-6 loss to Tabor Sežana that left them looking shaky at home. The pre-match favourite, an away win for Gorica, had a 56% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.7% probability, hit as the match produced two goals. Krško’s home form, marked by a recent defeat, was countered by Gorica’s away form, which also ended in a loss. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win, contradicting the model’s expectation.