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Kustosija vs Croatia Zmijavci Result & Analysis

Date: 29/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Kustosija
Kustosija
Vs
52%
28%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kustosija win✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci win✓ Hit
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KustosijaKustosija

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L25L00D12L10W10W11D02L21W12LA·VUK18/02A·DUB03/03H·ORI08/03H·JAR13/03A·BSK18/03A·SOL26/03H·HNK31/03A·VUK07/04H·RUD14/04A·JAR24/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.151.561.461.380.861.71
vs Stronger (27)1.151.561.461.380.861.71
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %22% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L20W20W00D00D21W14L10W02LA·ORI18/02A·JAR04/03H·DUB08/03H·BSK12/03A·HNK17/03A·HNK24/03H·VUK02/04A·RUD08/04H·JAR16/04A·ORI22/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.411.381.080.641.71
vs Stronger (3)1.331.001.501.501.000.00
vs Similar (22)0.951.451.401.000.581.83
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.2%
Under 2.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.6%
2-0
10.6%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
5.4%
1-2 ✓
5.3%
Kustosija goals ↓
Croatia Zmijavci goals →
01234
010%6.7%3.4%1.0%0.2%
113%13%5.3%1.5%0.3%
211%9.3%4.0%1.2%0.3%
35.4%4.7%2.1%0.6%0.1%
42.1%1.8%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kustosija goals (down), columns = Croatia Zmijavci goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vukovar
1.91
Rudes
1.85
HNK Cibalia
1.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.50
Jarun
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.30
Solin
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
1.27
Dugopolje
1.24
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.76
Kustosija is 0.25 points worse than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.73
Rudes
1.61
Solin
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.36
Jarun
1.30
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
Croatia Zmijavci
1.12
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
0.91
Kustosija is 0.06 goals worse than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.76
HNK Cibalia
0.79
Rudes
0.82
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.12
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Croatia Zmijavci
1.33
Orijent 1919
1.36
Kustosija
1.49
Solin
1.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.70
Jarun
1.73
Kustosija is 0.15 goals worse than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.49 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KustosijaKustosija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D01L00D00D10W01L10W10WA·VUK18/02A·DUB03/03H·ORI08/03H·JAR13/03A·BSK18/03A·SOL26/03H·HNK31/03A·VUK07/04H·RUD14/04A·JAR24/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.630.540.620.290.64
vs Stronger (27)0.410.630.540.620.290.64
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D00D10W00D00D00D01L00D00DA·ORI18/02A·JAR04/03H·DUB08/03H·BSK12/03A·HNK17/03A·HNK24/03H·VUK02/04A·RUD08/04H·JAR16/04A·ORI22/04
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.700.460.850.290.57
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.501.000.000.00
vs Similar (22)0.360.680.500.800.250.58
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %44% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KustosijaKustosija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L13L00D11D10W10W01L01L11D02LA·VUK18/02A·DUB03/03H·ORI08/03H·JAR13/03A·BSK18/03A·SOL26/03H·HNK31/03A·VUK07/04H·RUD14/04A·JAR24/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.740.930.920.770.571.07
vs Stronger (27)0.740.930.920.770.571.07
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %41% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L20W10W00D00D21W13L10W02LA·ORI18/02A·JAR04/03H·DUB08/03H·BSK12/03A·HNK17/03A·HNK24/03H·VUK02/04A·RUD08/04H·JAR16/04A·ORI22/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.920.230.361.14
vs Stronger (3)1.000.331.000.501.000.00
vs Similar (22)0.590.770.900.200.331.25
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %59% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Kustosija and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Kustosija and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Kustosija and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Kustosija and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
KUS wins
1
Draws
0
CZ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kustosija vs Croatia Zmijavci · H/A from KUS
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/22HKUS Vs Croatia Zmijavci2-1
28/08/22ACroatia Zmijavci Vs KUS1-1

KustosijaKustosija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/23AJarun Vs KUS2-1
14/04/23HKUS Vs Rudes2-1
07/04/23AVukovar Vs KUS2-0
31/03/23HKUS Vs HNK Cibalia1-1
26/03/23ASolin Vs KUS0-1
18/03/23ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs KUS0-1
13/03/23HKUS Vs Jarun1-2
08/03/23HKUS Vs Orijent 19190-0
03/03/23ADubrava Zagreb Vs KUS5-2
18/02/23AVukovar Vs KUS3-0

Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23AOrijent 1919 Vs CZ2-0
16/04/23HCZ Vs Jarun1-0
08/04/23ARudes Vs CZ4-1
02/04/23HCZ Vs Vukovar2-1
24/03/23AHNK Cibalia Vs CZ0-0
17/03/23AHNK Cibalia Vs CZ0-0
12/03/23HCZ Vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo2-0
08/03/23HCZ Vs Dubrava Zagreb2-0
04/03/23AJarun Vs CZ2-1
18/02/23AOrijent 1919 Vs CZ0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kustosija
Kustosija
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.15
HomeLDLDW1.46
AwayLWWLL0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals2.702.852.57
Over 1.5 %70%77%64%
Over 2.5 %48%54%43%
Over 3.5 %26%31%21%
Scored1.151.460.86
Conceded1.561.381.71
BTTS52%62%43%
Clean Sheet22%31%14%
Corners---
Cards---
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.22
HomeLWWWW1.77
AwayLDDLL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%54%14%
AVG goals2.412.462.36
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %22%15%29%
Scored1.001.380.64
Conceded1.411.081.71
BTTS48%54%43%
Clean Sheet30%23%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VukovarVukovar3363
52%
1.9
5725+32
2.5
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2RudesRudes3361
55%
1.8
5327+26
2.4
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3111.60.8
-
3HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3354
39%
1.6
3726+11
1.9
58%
30%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.10.8
-
4Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3344
36%
1.3
4137+4
2.4
67%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
5JarunJarun3344
39%
1.3
4357-14
3.0
73%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193343
30%
1.3
4545+0
2.7
73%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
7Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3343
36%
1.3
3744-7
2.5
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
8SolinSolin3343
36%
1.3
4755-8
3.1
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
9Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3342
33%
1.3
3839-1
2.3
67%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.2
-
10DugopoljeDugopolje3341
27%
1.2
3035-5
2.0
70%
24%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.1
-
11KustosijaKustosija3537
29%
1.1
3752-15
2.5
69%
46%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
12Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac3325
15%
0.8
3356-23
2.7
76%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
13Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
14Inter ZaprešićInter Zaprešić00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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