The model sees Dinamo Zagreb U21 as the clear favourite, with a 55% chance of victory, compared with 24% for a draw and 22% for a Kustosija win. The expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 22% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.1% chance. Kustosija, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, indicating a modest offensive output and a relatively tight defence. Dinamo’s recent 6-2 win shows they can dominate, but the model’s focus remains on the home side’s form. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (92.1%) and Away +2 handicap (91.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kustosija win
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 win
54.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kustosija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.53
1.47
0.67
1.60
vs Stronger (29)
1.10
1.52
1.57
1.43
0.67
1.60
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
6.00
2.00
-
-
6.00
2.00
vs Similar (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.9%
Under 1.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.4%
0-1
7.6%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
0-3
5.5%
Kustosija goals ↓
Dinamo Zagreb U21 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
7.6%
8.4%
5.5%
2.7%
1
4.1%
11%
9.8%
6.4%
3.1%
2
3.0%
5.9%
5.8%
3.7%
1.8%
3
1.2%
2.3%
2.2%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kustosija goals (down), columns = Dinamo Zagreb U21 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Kustosija is 0.37 points worse than Dinamo Zagreb U21 in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Kustosija is 0.32 goals worse than Dinamo Zagreb U21 in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Kustosija is 0.43 goals worse than Dinamo Zagreb U21 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kustosija or Draw
45.5%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
55%
covers Kustosija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kustosija or Dinamo Zagreb U21
76.1%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
55%
covers Kustosija + Dinamo Zagreb U21
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb U21
78.4%
Avg Implied -
22%
24%
55%
covers Draw + Dinamo Zagreb U21
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kustosija over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 0.5
Over
85.8%
Under
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 1.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 2.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kustosija, so a minus line means Kustosija give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Zagreb U21 receive them. At -1, Kustosija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kustosija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kustosija)
Kustosija -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.1%
Dinamo Zagreb U21 +2
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kustosija)
Kustosija -1
8.8%
Draw -1
12.8%
Dinamo Zagreb U21 +1
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kustosija)
Kustosija +1
45.5%
Draw +1
21.9%
Dinamo Zagreb U21 -1
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kustosija)
Kustosija +2
67.4%
Draw +2
16.9%
Dinamo Zagreb U21 -2
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kustosija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (29)
0.45
0.52
0.71
0.57
0.20
0.47
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.33
-
-
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
-
-
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.3%
Under 0.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.6%
Under 1.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
Under 2.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kustosija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.87
0.93
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (29)
0.66
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.47
1.13
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Zagreb U21) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
-
-
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.2%
Under 1.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.9%
Under 2.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Zagreb U21 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Kustosija's squad is €1m more valuable than Dinamo Zagreb U21's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Kustosija and Dinamo Zagreb U21 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Kustosija and Dinamo Zagreb U21 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Kustosija's defence is €1m more valuable than Dinamo Zagreb U21's (€1m vs €0m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →