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Kustosija vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 3-0
Kustosija
Kustosija
Vs
46%
25%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Croatia: First NL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kustosija win✓ Hit
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KustosijaKustosija

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W10W11D02L21W12L12L02L01LH·JAR13/03A·BSK18/03A·SOL26/03H·HNK31/03A·VUK07/04H·RUD14/04A·JAR24/04H·CRO29/04A·ORI05/05A·BSK13/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.571.431.430.751.69
vs Stronger (30)1.071.571.431.430.751.69
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvatski Dragovoljac) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D51W21W01L03L02L13L22D23L22DH·DUB11/03A·JAR19/03A·DUG26/03H·DUB31/03A·SOL08/04H·HNK15/04A·VUK22/04H·RUD28/04A·JAR06/05H·CRO12/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.631.001.271.072.00
vs Stronger (3)0.671.670.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.081.561.001.151.172.00
vs Weaker (2)1.002.502.003.000.002.00
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
6.8%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.5%
0-0
5.4%
Kustosija goals ↓
Hrvatski Dragovoljac goals →
01234
05.4%4.9%4.1%1.9%0.6%
16.6%12%7.2%3.3%1.1%
26.8%9.3%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.0%5.5%3.7%1.7%0.6%
41.8%2.4%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kustosija goals (down), columns = Hrvatski Dragovoljac goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Vukovar
1.91
Rudes
1.85
HNK Cibalia
1.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.50
Jarun
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.30
Solin
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
1.27
Dugopolje
1.24
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.76
Kustosija is 0.30 points better than Hrvatski Dragovoljac in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 0.76).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.73
Rudes
1.61
Solin
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.36
Jarun
1.30
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
Croatia Zmijavci
1.12
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
0.91
Kustosija is 0.06 goals better than Hrvatski Dragovoljac in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.76
HNK Cibalia
0.79
Rudes
0.82
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.12
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Croatia Zmijavci
1.33
Orijent 1919
1.36
Kustosija
1.49
Solin
1.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.70
Jarun
1.73
Kustosija is 0.21 goals better than Hrvatski Dragovoljac in terms of goals conceded per game (1.49 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KustosijaKustosija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D00D10W01L10W10W01L00D01LH·JAR13/03A·BSK18/03A·SOL26/03H·HNK31/03A·VUK07/04H·RUD14/04A·JAR24/04H·CRO29/04A·ORI05/05A·BSK13/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.630.500.640.250.62
vs Stronger (30)0.370.630.500.640.250.62
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvatski Dragovoljac) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W31W20W00D01L01L12L10W12L21WH·DUB11/03A·JAR19/03A·DUG26/03H·DUB31/03A·SOL08/04H·HNK15/04A·VUK22/04H·RUD28/04A·JAR06/05H·CRO12/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.630.470.330.730.93
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.000.001.001.50
vs Similar (25)0.640.600.540.310.750.92
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KustosijaKustosija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W10W01L01L11D02L11D02L00DH·JAR13/03A·BSK18/03A·SOL26/03H·HNK31/03A·VUK07/04H·RUD14/04A·JAR24/04H·CRO29/04A·ORI05/05A·BSK13/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.930.930.790.501.06
vs Stronger (30)0.700.930.930.790.501.06
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hrvatski Dragovoljac) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W01L01L02L01L01L12L11D01LH·DUB11/03A·JAR19/03A·DUG26/03H·DUB31/03A·SOL08/04H·HNK15/04A·VUK22/04H·RUD28/04A·JAR06/05H·CRO12/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.000.530.930.331.07
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (25)0.440.960.460.850.421.08
vs Weaker (2)1.002.002.002.000.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kustosija) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kustosija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kustosija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hrvatski Dragovoljac over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
KUS wins
0
Draws
0
HD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kustosija vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · H/A from KUS
DateH/AGameScore
26/11/22AHrvatski Dragovoljac Vs KUS2-3
09/09/22HKUS Vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac2-0

KustosijaKustosija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/23ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs KUS1-0
05/05/23AOrijent 1919 Vs KUS2-0
29/04/23HKUS Vs Croatia Zmijavci1-2
24/04/23AJarun Vs KUS2-1
14/04/23HKUS Vs Rudes2-1
07/04/23AVukovar Vs KUS2-0
31/03/23HKUS Vs HNK Cibalia1-1
26/03/23ASolin Vs KUS0-1
18/03/23ABsk Bijelo Brdo Vs KUS0-1
13/03/23HKUS Vs Jarun1-2

Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/23HHD Vs Croatia Zmijavci2-2
06/05/23AJarun Vs HD3-2
28/04/23HHD Vs Rudes2-2
22/04/23AVukovar Vs HD3-1
15/04/23HHD Vs HNK Cibalia0-2
08/04/23ASolin Vs HD3-0
31/03/23HHD Vs Dubrava Zagreb0-1
26/03/23ADugopolje Vs HD1-2
19/03/23AJarun Vs HD1-5
11/03/23HHD Vs Dubrava Zagreb1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kustosija
Kustosija
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.03
HomeDLDWL1.36
AwayWLLLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%36%19%
AVG goals2.632.862.44
Over 1.5 %70%79%62%
Over 2.5 %47%57%38%
Over 3.5 %23%29%19%
Scored1.071.430.75
Conceded1.571.431.69
BTTS50%64%38%
Clean Sheet20%29%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Croatia: First NL
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD0.80
HomeDLLDD0.93
AwayWWLLL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%13%20%
AVG goals2.672.273.07
Over 1.5 %73%60%87%
Over 2.5 %50%33%67%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.031.001.07
Conceded1.631.272.00
BTTS57%53%60%
Clean Sheet13%27%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VukovarVukovar3363
52%
1.9
5725+32
2.5
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2RudesRudes3361
55%
1.8
5327+26
2.4
70%
48%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3111.60.8
-
3HNK CibaliaHNK Cibalia3354
39%
1.6
3726+11
1.9
58%
30%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.10.8
-
4Bsk Bijelo BrdoBsk Bijelo Brdo3344
36%
1.3
4137+4
2.4
67%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
5JarunJarun3344
39%
1.3
4357-14
3.0
73%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
6Orijent 1919Orijent 19193343
30%
1.3
4545+0
2.7
73%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
7Croatia ZmijavciCroatia Zmijavci3343
36%
1.3
3744-7
2.5
79%
52%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
8SolinSolin3343
36%
1.3
4755-8
3.1
79%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
9Dubrava ZagrebDubrava Zagreb3342
33%
1.3
3839-1
2.3
67%
30%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.2
-
10DugopoljeDugopolje3341
27%
1.2
3035-5
2.0
70%
24%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.1
-
11KustosijaKustosija3537
29%
1.1
3752-15
2.5
69%
46%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.5
-
12Hrvatski DragovoljacHrvatski Dragovoljac3325
15%
0.8
3356-23
2.7
76%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
13Zrinski JurjevacZrinski Jurjevac23
50%
1.5
22+0
2.0
50%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
14Inter ZaprešićInter Zaprešić00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Croatia: First NL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →

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