PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV is the favourite to win this match, with a strong recent form note of being on a 3-game winning run. The model predicts an away win, which aligns with the high probability of 56% for Club Brugge KV to win. KV Mechelen, on the other hand, has a 19% chance of winning at home. The draw is a 25% possibility.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.9%.
At home, KV Mechelen scores an average of 1.2 goals and concedes 1.8 goals, while Club Brugge KV, when away, scores 3.2 goals and concedes 1.2 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with a probability of 78.2%. Other suggested picks include the Home win, with a 19% probability, and the Away win, with a 56% probability. The Away win is the model's pick.
In a stunning turn of events, KV Mechelen drew 2-2 against Club Brugge KV, extending their winless run at home. The actual result was a draw, contrary to the expected outcome. The pre-match favourite, Club Brugge KV, whose model's selection was an away win with a pre-match probability of 56%, failed to come through. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of an away win MISSED, while the selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 78.2%.
KV Mechelen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.60 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.90 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge KV| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 2.45 | 1.91 | 2.83 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| vs Similar (18) | 2.50 | 1.28 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 2.30 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Club Brugge KV goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.1% | 9.9% | 10% | 6.2% | 2.8% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 12% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
KV MechelenClub Brugge KVKV Mechelen| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 21.6 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 24.3 | 25.2 | 23.4 |
| vs Similar (35) | 10.8 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 21.6 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 13.2 | 11.0 | 15.5 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 18.8 | 20.0 | 17.5 |
| % over line | 56% | 62% | 50% | 52% | 56% | 48% | 48% | 58% | 38% |
| % under line | 44% | 38% | 50% | 48% | 44% | 52% | 52% | 42% | 62% |
Club Brugge KV| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 20.2 | 19.5 | 21.0 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 19.7 | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| vs Similar (27) | 10.7 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 20.8 | 20.2 | 21.3 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 11.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 62% | 57% | 67% | 40% | 29% | 50% | 38% | 30% | 46% |
| % under line | 38% | 43% | 33% | 60% | 71% | 50% | 62% | 70% | 54% |
KV Mechelen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge KV| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.36 | 0.73 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 0.56 | 1.12 | 0.38 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
KV Mechelen| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.97 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 1.06 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Club Brugge KV| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 0.87 | 1.40 | 0.93 | 1.27 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.09 | 1.18 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.56 | 0.72 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 01/08/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/12/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/07/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/12/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 30/07/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/04/23 | H | 0-3 |
KV Mechelen| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 6-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Club Brugge KV| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 |  Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 | KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |