The contest between Lazio and AC Milan is a razor-thin affair, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities sit at 32% for a home victory, 30% for a draw and 38% for an AC Milan triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Lazio, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded, while AC Milan, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.8% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.0% with a 5% edge) and Under 5.5 (95.6% with a 1% edge). Both sides have shown recent winning streaks, with Lazio on a three-game run and AC Milan on a two-game run, adding to the uncertainty of the result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lazio win
32.4%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.22
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.38
1xBet
3.36
Unibet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
Dafabet
3.25
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.16
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
10Bet
3.20
AC Milan win
37.8%
Avg Implied 41.0% · @ 2.30
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Dafabet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
0.86
1.57
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.79
1.71
1.00
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.97
1.29
1.07
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.82
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
1.05
1.44
1.22
1.80
0.90
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.8%
@ 1.40+4.6%
Under 1.5
28.2%
@ 2.87-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.92
Pinnacle
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.25+2.4%
Under 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.65-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Betano
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.4%
@ 4.12+0.6%
Under 3.5
76.6%
@ 1.22-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.05
1xBet
3.86
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Both teams to score
Yes
51.3%
@ 1.90+2.3%
No
48.7%
@ 1.82-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
No
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.74+6.4%
0-0
9.8%@ 7.45+3.8%
0-1
9.7%@ 6.36+2.7%
1-0
8.7%@ 7.87+3.1%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.71+3.2%
2-1
7.6%@ 10.65+3.4%
0-2
7.1%@ 9.93+2.6%
2-0
5.9%@ 13.88+2.7%
Lazio goals ↓
AC Milan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
9.7%
7.1%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.7%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.9%
7.6%
4.9%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lazio goals (down), columns = AC Milan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Lazio is 0.42 points worse than AC Milan in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Lazio is 0.32 goals worse than AC Milan in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Lazio is 0.13 goals worse than AC Milan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Lazio is 1.5 percentage points worse than AC Milan in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lazio
For 4.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Milan
For 2.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.0
8.1
5.1
5.2
5.0
25.1
25.3
25.0
vs Stronger (6)
6.3
6.3
6.3
5.0
6.7
3.3
24.3
23.7
25.0
vs Similar (20)
9.3
10.1
8.5
6.0
6.5
5.4
25.1
25.9
24.2
vs Weaker (24)
8.4
8.7
8.2
4.4
3.8
5.0
25.4
25.2
25.6
% over line
33%
32%
33%
74%
76%
72%
76%
80%
71%
% under line
67%
68%
67%
26%
24%
28%
24%
20%
29%
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
3.6
4.0
3.2
21.6
21.7
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.6
7.8
9.3
4.0
4.9
3.3
20.7
21.4
20.0
vs Weaker (29)
8.8
9.3
8.3
3.3
3.4
3.1
22.3
21.9
22.6
% over line
43%
50%
36%
54%
71%
38%
53%
50%
56%
% under line
57%
50%
64%
46%
29%
62%
47%
50%
44%
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.4%
@ 2.18-9.6%
Under 9.5
67.6%
@ 1.58+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.18
Under
Unibet
1.58
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.2%
Under 21.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lazio or Draw
52.8%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.59
Edge
-6.4%
32%
30%
38%
covers Lazio + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.57
Lazio or AC Milan
71.6%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
+1.1%
32%
30%
38%
covers Lazio + AC Milan
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.34
Draw or AC Milan
75.6%
Avg Implied 70.3% · @ 1.34
Edge
+5.3%
32%
30%
38%
covers Draw + AC Milan
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lazio over/under 0.5
Over
63.9%
@ 1.44-0.5%
Under
36.1%
@ 2.61+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Lazio over/under 1.5
Over
27.1%
@ 3.17-2.3%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.32+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Unibet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Lazio over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
@ 8.32-2.9%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Lazio over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
@ 19.00-3.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
AC Milan over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
@ 1.30+6.2%
Under
22.2%
@ 3.28-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.46
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
1xBet
3.26
AC Milan over/under 1.5
Over
44.4%
@ 2.44+6.2%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.51-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Under
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
AC Milan over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
@ 5.76+3.0%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.11-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
AC Milan over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
@ 12.50-0.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Marathonbet
11.50
1xBet
11.50
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lazio, so a minus line means Lazio give that many goals of a start and AC Milan receive them. At -1, Lazio must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lazio win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lazio)
Lazio -2
2.6%
@ 18.33-2.3%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 9.17-3.2%
AC Milan +2
90.6%
@ 1.07+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Lazio)
Lazio -1
9.4%
@ 7.13-3.2%
Draw -1
15.0%
@ 4.57-4.7%
AC Milan +1
75.6%
@ 1.33+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Handicap +1 (Lazio)
Lazio +1
52.8%
@ 1.59-3.2%
Draw +1
22.8%
@ 3.74-1.1%
AC Milan -1
24.5%
@ 4.43+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.55
Away
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.25
Handicap +2 (Lazio)
Lazio +2
75.5%
@ 1.16-2.0%
Draw +2
14.7%
@ 6.46+0.8%
AC Milan -2
9.8%
@ 10.52+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.47
0.80
0.13
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.43
1.00
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.29
0.36
0.57
0.43
0.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.36
0.64
0.50
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.45
0.20
0.60
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.58
0.53
0.44
0.67
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.3%
@ 1.46+3.4%
Under 0.5
32.7%
@ 2.59-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.63
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 3.21+4.3%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.33-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.35
Pinnacle
3.34
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Under
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 8.49-0.5%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.06+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.0%
@ 2.45+6.1%
Under
56.0%
@ 1.50-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
Unibet
2.43
1xBet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Lazio over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 8.63-0.7%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.04+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Lazio over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
@ 14.00-5.3%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
AC Milan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.6%
@ 2.09+1.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.68-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Unibet
2.06
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
AC Milan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.7%
@ 6.46-2.7%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
AC Milan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
@ 12.00-5.9%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.57
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.47
0.93
0.43
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
0.80
0.20
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.53
1.00
0.56
1.10
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.31+6.7%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.32-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 2.39+5.3%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.53-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 5.48-0.1%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.12+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.9%
@ 2.02+4.0%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.72-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Lazio over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.8%
@ 6.17+1.7%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.09-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Lazio over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
@ 11.75-4.8%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
AC Milan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.2%
@ 1.78+3.1%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.94-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
AC Milan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.2%
@ 4.84+0.0%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.15-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
AC Milan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
@ 10.25-5.1%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+0.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+2.9%
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.06
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+0.5%
Under 4.5
88.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+0.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+2.7%
Under 11.5 corners
86.3%
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+10.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-1.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+0.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-
-0.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-3.0%
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
+6.7%
Under 10.5 corners
78.3%
1.35
Unibet
1.35
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.30
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+6.2%
Under 3.5
76.6%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-0.6%
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.6%
1.34
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
+5.3%
Away +1 handicap
75.6%
1.33
Marathonbet
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+7.9%
Home +2 handicap
75.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
-2.0%
Home under 1.5 goals
72.9%
1.32
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+2.3%
Over 1.5
71.8%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+4.6%
Home or Away
71.6%
1.33
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.34
+1.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lazio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davide Frattesi67%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matteo Cancellieri67%
Boulaye Dia33%
Nicolò Rovella33%
Mattia Zaccagni33%
Oliver Provstgaard33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Boulaye Dia33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenneth Taylor33%
Matteo Cancellieri33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
AC Milan · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Leão29%
Christian Pulišić24%
Christopher Nkunku21%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Strahinja Pavlović14%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Alexis Saelemaekers8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Youssouf Fofana6%
Luka Modrić6%
Santiago Giménez6%
Niclas Füllkrug5%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Samuele Ricci3%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pervis Estupiñán29%
Fikayo Tomori19%
Strahinja Pavlović16%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Rafael Leão16%
Alexis Saelemaekers13%
Matteo Gabbia13%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Luka Modrić11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Zachary Athekame11%
Mike Maignan10%
Davide Bartesaghi9%
Koni De Winter7%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek6%
Christian Pulišić0%
Christopher Nkunku0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christian Pulišić12%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Alexis Saelemaekers11%
Rafael Leão10%
Christopher Nkunku9%
Luka Modrić8%
Fikayo Tomori8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Ardon Jashari6%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek3%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Leão26%
Christian Pulišić21%
Santiago Giménez17%
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christopher Nkunku12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Matteo Gabbia6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Alexis Saelemaekers5%
Samuele Ricci3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Luka Modrić0%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Koni De Winter0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
Davide Bartesaghi0%
David Odogu0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Lazio's squad is €345m less valuable than AC Milan's (€240m vs €585m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Lazio's attack is €163m less valuable than AC Milan's (€60m vs €223m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Lazio's midfield is €66m less valuable than AC Milan's (€86m vs €153m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Lazio's defence is €116m less valuable than AC Milan's (€93m vs €209m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
Juventus
Atalanta
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina