Lazio’s attacking edge, averaging two goals per home game against weaker opposition, and Parma’s defensive frailty, conceding almost three goals on the road, set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 53% chance of a home win, a 23% draw and a 24% away win, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw at 9.8%. The expected total of 3.5 goals aligns with the 22% probability of exactly three goals. Lazio’s home form shows strong scoring and a solid 1.0-goal concession average, while Parma’s away form indicates a weaker attack and a high 2.75-goal concession average. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 87.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 87.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 78.0%, and Over 3.5 cards at 73.2%. The model also lists Over 19.5 fouls at 85.0% and Over 21.5 fouls at 72.9%, both predicted to miss. The home win probability remains the highest, with draw and away win percentages at 23% and 24% respectively.
Results analysis
The 2-0 victory for Lazio extended their three-game winning streak, keeping the home side’s momentum alive. The model’s favourite, Home win, with a 53% probability, proved correct. The predicted 3-point result matched reality, and the most likely score of 2-0 was in the top three possibilities, though the model’s 3-goal expectation fell short. Regarding the suggested picks, Over 2.5 cards (87.3%) hit, as did Over 1.5 (87.2%) and Over 8.5 corners (78.0%). Over 3.5 cards (73.2%) also succeeded, while Over 19.5 fouls (85.0%) and Over 21.5 fouls (72.9%) missed. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, with most high-probability calls confirmed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lazio win✓ Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.31
Edge
-20.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.52
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Parma win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 9.8% · @ 9.72
Edge
+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.20
1.86
1.36
1.12
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.33
1.83
1.67
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
1.12
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.22
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.73
0.87
1.53
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
2.30
0.33
2.00
1.50
2.75
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.27
0.83
0.67
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
2.00
2.00
2.33
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.7%
@ 1.57+7.2%
Under 2.5
32.3%
@ 2.40-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.8%
No
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
2-0 ✓
6.7%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
1-2
6.2%
1-0
5.5%
3-0
4.7%
Lazio goals ↓
Parma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
3.4%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.5%
9.8%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
2
6.7%
9.3%
6.5%
3.0%
1.1%
3
4.7%
6.5%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.5%
3.4%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lazio goals (down), columns = Parma goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.18
Inter
2.16
Atalanta
2.05
Lazio
2.05
AS Roma
1.84
AC Milan
1.74
Napoli
1.63
Sassuolo
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.29
Fiorentina
1.29
Parma
1.29
Bologna
1.24
Cagliari
1.18
Udinese
1.18
Sampdoria
1.11
Torino
1.05
Genoa
1.03
Lecce
0.92
Brescia
0.66
Spal
0.53
Lazio is 0.76 points better than Parma in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.58
Inter
2.13
Lazio
2.08
AS Roma
2.03
Juventus
2.00
Sassuolo
1.82
AC Milan
1.66
Napoli
1.61
Parma
1.47
Bologna
1.37
Lecce
1.37
Cagliari
1.37
Fiorentina
1.34
Sampdoria
1.26
Hellas Verona
1.24
Genoa
1.24
Torino
1.21
Udinese
0.97
Brescia
0.92
Spal
0.71
Lazio is 0.61 goals better than Parma in terms of goals scored per game (2.08 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter
0.95
Lazio
1.11
Juventus
1.13
AC Milan
1.21
Atalanta
1.26
Fiorentina
1.26
Napoli
1.32
AS Roma
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.34
Udinese
1.34
Cagliari
1.47
Parma
1.50
Sassuolo
1.66
Sampdoria
1.71
Bologna
1.71
Torino
1.79
Genoa
1.92
Spal
2.03
Brescia
2.08
Lecce
2.24
Lazio is 0.39 goals better than Parma in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lazio
For 5.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Parma
For 4.9 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.3
10.4
5.1
5.2
5.1
23.7
23.2
24.2
vs Stronger (5)
11.8
12.0
11.5
5.8
8.0
2.5
24.4
24.3
24.5
vs Similar (18)
11.6
11.2
12.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
24.4
22.3
27.1
vs Weaker (27)
10.2
11.2
9.5
5.0
4.4
5.5
23.1
23.7
22.7
% over line
70%
76%
64%
68%
56%
80%
70%
64%
76%
% under line
30%
24%
36%
32%
44%
20%
30%
36%
24%
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.7
11.3
4.6
4.6
4.7
25.6
26.7
24.4
vs Stronger (15)
11.7
10.5
13.0
3.1
3.2
3.0
21.3
22.9
19.4
vs Similar (22)
10.4
9.8
11.0
5.1
4.7
5.5
27.6
28.4
26.9
vs Weaker (13)
9.2
8.6
9.8
5.5
6.0
5.0
27.1
28.3
25.7
% over line
66%
58%
75%
64%
65%
62%
72%
77%
67%
% under line
34%
42%
25%
36%
35%
38%
28%
23%
33%
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Inter
12.1
AS Roma
11.3
Fiorentina
11.2
Udinese
11.1
Napoli
11.1
AC Milan
11.0
Lazio
10.9
Atalanta
10.9
Juventus
10.8
Sassuolo
10.8
Torino
10.6
Spal
10.6
Parma
10.5
Cagliari
10.4
Sampdoria
10.4
Bologna
10.1
Brescia
10.1
Hellas Verona
10.0
Genoa
10.0
Lecce
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spal
5.8
Torino
5.6
Fiorentina
5.5
Hellas Verona
5.4
Bologna
5.2
Lazio
5.1
Cagliari
5.0
Brescia
4.9
Sassuolo
4.9
Genoa
4.9
Sampdoria
4.9
Inter
4.8
Lecce
4.7
Udinese
4.7
Parma
4.6
AC Milan
4.6
Napoli
4.6
Juventus
4.6
Atalanta
4.5
AS Roma
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Brescia
32.1
Torino
30.9
Hellas Verona
30.0
Spal
28.1
Fiorentina
28.0
Lecce
28.0
Sassuolo
27.5
Bologna
27.2
Cagliari
27.1
Genoa
26.9
Parma
25.6
Udinese
25.3
Atalanta
25.3
Sampdoria
25.0
AC Milan
24.7
Juventus
24.6
Inter
24.3
Lazio
23.7
AS Roma
22.9
Napoli
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.4%
Under 9.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.2%
Under 3.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.9%
Under 21.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.86
0.29
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.19
1.29
0.29
0.78
0.11
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.00
0.17
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
1.00
1.07
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.83
1.33
1.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.94
0.71
0.71
0.56
1.11
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.07
0.53
0.93
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.30
0.17
1.33
1.50
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.73
0.50
0.17
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.60
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Parma over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lazio · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davide Frattesi67%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matteo Cancellieri67%
Boulaye Dia33%
Nicolò Rovella33%
Mattia Zaccagni33%
Oliver Provstgaard33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Boulaye Dia33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenneth Taylor33%
Matteo Cancellieri33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Parma · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simone Lontani33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Enrico Delprato0%
Emanuele Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
El Bilal Touré0%
Mandela Keita0%
Christian Ordoñez0%
Mariano Troilo0%
Abdou-Salam Konate0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enrico Delprato33%
Mariano Troilo33%
Abdou-Salam Konate33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Emanuele Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
El Bilal Touré0%
Mandela Keita0%
Christian Ordoñez0%
Simone Lontani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
El Bilal Touré33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Enrico Delprato0%
Emanuele Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
Mandela Keita0%
Christian Ordoñez0%
Mariano Troilo0%
Simone Lontani0%
Abdou-Salam Konate0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Simone Lontani33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Enrico Delprato0%
Emanuele Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
El Bilal Touré0%
Mandela Keita0%
Christian Ordoñez0%
Mariano Troilo0%
Abdou-Salam Konate0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
LEC (31)
€72m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
Lazio's squad is €98m more valuable than Parma's (€240m vs €142m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
LEC (9)
€20m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
Lazio's attack is €25m more valuable than Parma's (€60m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
LEC (8)
€16m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
Lazio's midfield is €26m more valuable than Parma's (€86m vs €60m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
Lazio's defence is €47m more valuable than Parma's (€93m vs €46m).
Italy: Serie A 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
Inter
Atalanta
AS Roma
AC Milan
Napoli
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Bologna
Cagliari
Udinese
Sampdoria
Torino
Genoa
Lecce
Brescia
Spal