This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.27
0.81
1.12
1.50
1.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.65
0.88
1.62
1.56
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.67
0.83
0.67
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.8%
@ 1.62+7.1%
Under 2.5
34.2%
@ 2.30-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
6.4%
2-1
6.4%
1-3 ✓
6.3%
0-1
5.9%
0-3
4.6%
Lecce goals ↓
Fiorentina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
5.9%
6.9%
4.6%
2.3%
1
3.7%
10%
9.4%
6.3%
3.2%
2
3.2%
6.4%
6.4%
4.3%
2.2%
3
1.4%
2.9%
2.9%
2.0%
1.0%
4
0.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecce goals (down), columns = Fiorentina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Juventus
2.18
Inter
2.16
Atalanta
2.05
Lazio
2.05
AS Roma
1.84
AC Milan
1.74
Napoli
1.63
Sassuolo
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.29
Fiorentina
1.29
Parma
1.29
Bologna
1.24
Cagliari
1.18
Udinese
1.18
Sampdoria
1.11
Torino
1.05
Genoa
1.03
Lecce
0.92
Brescia
0.66
Spal
0.53
Lecce is 0.37 points worse than Fiorentina in terms of average points per game (0.92 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atalanta
2.58
Inter
2.13
Lazio
2.08
AS Roma
2.03
Juventus
2.00
Sassuolo
1.82
AC Milan
1.66
Napoli
1.61
Parma
1.47
Bologna
1.37
Lecce
1.37
Cagliari
1.37
Fiorentina
1.34
Sampdoria
1.26
Hellas Verona
1.24
Genoa
1.24
Torino
1.21
Udinese
0.97
Brescia
0.92
Spal
0.71
Lecce is 0.03 goals better than Fiorentina in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter
0.95
Lazio
1.11
Juventus
1.13
AC Milan
1.21
Atalanta
1.26
Fiorentina
1.26
Napoli
1.32
AS Roma
1.34
Hellas Verona
1.34
Udinese
1.34
Cagliari
1.47
Parma
1.50
Sassuolo
1.66
Sampdoria
1.71
Bologna
1.71
Torino
1.79
Genoa
1.92
Spal
2.03
Brescia
2.08
Lecce
2.24
Lecce is 0.97 goals worse than Fiorentina in terms of goals conceded per game (2.24 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lecce
For 4.6 · Against 8.0 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.6 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fiorentina
For 4.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.4
11.3
5.1
5.4
4.8
27.1
27.0
27.1
vs Stronger (15)
13.3
14.0
12.6
4.4
4.9
4.0
22.7
21.7
23.6
vs Similar (19)
11.1
11.6
10.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
28.7
30.1
27.1
vs Weaker (16)
9.9
9.2
10.7
5.2
5.7
4.7
29.2
27.8
31.1
% over line
72%
58%
88%
72%
81%
62%
78%
69%
88%
% under line
28%
42%
12%
28%
19%
38%
22%
31%
12%
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.3
11.7
5.4
5.3
5.5
28.6
29.0
28.1
vs Stronger (8)
11.4
10.0
13.7
5.1
6.2
3.3
26.6
30.6
20.0
vs Similar (27)
10.6
10.7
10.5
5.3
4.6
5.9
28.0
26.7
29.1
vs Weaker (15)
11.5
10.0
13.1
5.6
5.8
5.4
30.8
31.9
29.6
% over line
70%
58%
83%
80%
81%
79%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
30%
42%
17%
20%
19%
21%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AS Roma
11.7
Udinese
11.5
Torino
11.4
Bologna
11.4
Lecce
11.4
Juventus
11.2
Sassuolo
11.1
Inter
11.0
Fiorentina
11.0
Spal
10.8
Sampdoria
10.7
AC Milan
10.6
Hellas Verona
10.6
Brescia
10.5
Parma
10.5
Napoli
10.4
Lazio
10.0
Cagliari
10.0
Atalanta
9.8
Genoa
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bologna
6.2
Torino
6.1
Hellas Verona
5.8
Genoa
5.6
Spal
5.5
AS Roma
5.5
Sampdoria
5.5
Brescia
5.4
Sassuolo
5.4
Inter
5.4
Fiorentina
5.4
Lazio
5.3
Cagliari
5.3
AC Milan
5.2
Lecce
5.1
Juventus
5.1
Parma
4.9
Atalanta
4.9
Napoli
4.8
Udinese
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torino
31.9
Brescia
30.7
Bologna
30.7
Hellas Verona
29.9
Genoa
29.4
Spal
29.4
Fiorentina
28.6
Sassuolo
28.5
Atalanta
27.4
AC Milan
27.4
Cagliari
27.3
Lecce
27.1
Inter
26.9
Parma
26.8
Sampdoria
26.8
Udinese
25.9
Juventus
25.9
AS Roma
25.5
Napoli
25.0
Lazio
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
69.7%
Under 9.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.0%
Under 3.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.8%
Under 21.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.86
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.31
0.56
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.38
0.75
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.40
1.00
1.33
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.86
0.71
1.86
1.00
1.86
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
1.29
0.86
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fiorentina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fiorentina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.50
0.56
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.00
0.50
0.88
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.44
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fiorentina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lecce · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Fiorentina · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cher Ndour33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolò Fagioli33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Christ Inao Oulaï33%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marco Brescianini33%
João Mário33%
Radu Drăguşin33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Cher Ndour0%
Arthur Atta0%
Franco Mastantuono0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cher Ndour33%
Arthur Atta33%
Franco Mastantuono33%
Nicolò Fagioli0%
David De Gea0%
Marco Brescianini0%
João Mário0%
Radu Drăguşin0%
Christ Inao Oulaï0%
Víctor Valdepeñas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
LEC (31)
€72m
HV (34)
€57m
SAM (27)
€37m
Lecce's squad is €258m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€72m vs €330m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
PAR (8)
€35m
LEC (9)
€20m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
Lecce's attack is €105m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€20m vs €125m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
CAG (9)
€31m
LEC (8)
€16m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
Lecce's midfield is €92m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€16m vs €107m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
SAM (14)
€17m
Lecce's defence is €61m less valuable than Fiorentina's (€37m vs €98m).
Italy: Serie A 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Juventus
Inter
Atalanta
Lazio
AS Roma
AC Milan
Napoli
Sassuolo
Parma
Hellas Verona
Bologna
Cagliari
Udinese
Sampdoria
Torino
Genoa
Brescia
Spal