The match between Lecce and Monza is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 35% for a Lecce victory, 31% for a draw, and 34% for Monza. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.6% chance. Lecce, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Monza, on the road, averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against comparable teams. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (97.0% with a 3% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (96.7% with a 4% edge). The recent form shows Lecce coming off a 0-4 loss to AS Roma, while Monza has just won 2-3 over Udinese after three straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lecce win
35.3%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.25
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Dafabet
2.29
Draw
31.2%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.20
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.28
Dafabet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Betano
3.20
Monza win
33.5%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.30
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.45
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.36
Pinnacle
3.33
10Bet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lecce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.33
0.67
1.40
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.80
0.12
2.00
0.43
1.57
vs Similar (15)
1.20
0.87
1.29
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.17
1.93
1.00
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.28
1.70
1.20
1.88
1.38
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.73
2.40
0.60
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.39+0.2%
Under 1.5
32.2%
@ 2.89-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.92
Unibet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.27-2.2%
Under 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.64+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.35
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Under
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.6%
@ 4.17-2.8%
Under 3.5
80.4%
@ 1.21+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Both teams to score
Yes
47.6%
@ 1.90-1.3%
No
52.4%
@ 1.82+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
No
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.74+6.9%
0-0
11.6%@ 7.64+5.7%
1-0
10.5%@ 6.28+3.4%
0-1
10.2%@ 7.77+4.4%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.65+2.5%
1-2
7.4%@ 10.92+3.4%
2-0
6.9%@ 9.64+2.2%
0-2
6.4%@ 14.46+3.4%
Lecce goals ↓
Monza goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.9%
7.7%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.6%
3.0%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lecce goals (down), columns = Monza goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Lecce is 0.01 points worse than Monza in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.01).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Lecce is 0.16 goals worse than Monza in terms of goals scored per game (0.74 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Lecce is 0.33 goals better than Monza in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lecce
For 3.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
For 5.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.5 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
8.7
11.0
3.5
3.9
3.2
25.5
25.8
25.1
vs Stronger (25)
9.9
8.1
11.9
3.1
3.5
2.7
22.7
23.2
22.2
vs Similar (25)
9.8
9.4
10.1
4.0
4.4
3.6
28.4
28.8
28.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
40%
75%
46%
48%
44%
65%
68%
62%
% under line
43%
60%
25%
54%
52%
56%
35%
32%
38%
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.5
8.3
4.1
3.8
4.4
27.0
26.3
27.6
vs Stronger (4)
7.8
10.0
7.0
3.8
3.0
4.0
19.2
19.0
19.3
vs Similar (30)
8.7
9.2
8.2
4.5
3.7
5.3
27.2
25.6
28.9
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
10.1
8.9
3.6
4.1
3.0
28.6
28.6
28.6
% over line
39%
50%
28%
58%
46%
69%
84%
83%
84%
% under line
61%
50%
72%
42%
54%
31%
16%
17%
16%
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
30.3%
@ 1.77-21.6%
Under 9.5
69.7%
@ 1.91+21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.77
Under
Unibet
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.0%
Under 21.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lecce or Draw
67.5%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
-3.5%
35%
31%
34%
covers Lecce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Lecce or Monza
69.1%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.33
Edge
-1.8%
35%
31%
34%
covers Lecce + Monza
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.33
Draw or Monza
63.5%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.62
Edge
+5.3%
35%
31%
34%
covers Draw + Monza
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.62
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lecce over/under 0.5
Over
69.7%
@ 1.29-2.8%
Under
30.3%
@ 3.38+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.41
1xBet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Lecce over/under 1.5
Over
33.5%
@ 2.43-5.0%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.52+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Under
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Lecce over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
@ 5.75-4.3%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.11+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Lecce over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 12.50-4.3%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
11.50
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Monza over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
@ 1.45+3.1%
Under
32.9%
@ 2.58-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
Monza over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
@ 3.24+1.8%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.31-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Monza over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
@ 8.82-0.4%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.05+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Monza over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 19.00-2.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lecce, so a minus line means Lecce give that many goals of a start and Monza receive them. At -1, Lecce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lecce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lecce)
Lecce -2
5.3%
@ 9.75-3.7%
Draw -2
10.8%
@ 5.84-4.3%
Monza +2
83.9%
@ 1.16+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
9.50
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Handicap -1 (Lecce)
Lecce -1
16.1%
@ 4.39-4.4%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 3.73-3.7%
Monza +1
63.5%
@ 1.62+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.67
Unibet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Lecce)
Lecce +1
67.5%
@ 1.32-1.0%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.63-0.6%
Monza -1
13.6%
@ 7.54+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
4.90
Bet365
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Lecce)
Lecce +2
86.4%
@ 1.06+0.9%
Draw +2
9.4%
@ 9.33-0.4%
Monza -2
4.2%
@ 19.33-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Betfair
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.47
0.60
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.27
1.00
0.14
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.67
0.50
0.80
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.27
0.80
0.00
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.7%
@ 1.47+4.0%
Under 0.5
32.3%
@ 2.57-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.46
Under
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.63
William Hil
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.4%
@ 3.28-0.3%
Under 1.5
71.6%
@ 1.32+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.7%
@ 8.73-2.1%
Under 2.5
91.3%
@ 1.05+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
William Hil
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.40
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.9%
@ 2.08+5.2%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.68-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Lecce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.3%
@ 6.80-0.4%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.08+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Lecce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 12.00-5.6%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Monza over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.48-1.1%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.49+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Unibet
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Monza over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
@ 8.97-3.2%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.04+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Monza over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 14.00-5.7%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.07
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.60
0.29
0.57
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.33
0.47
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.61
1.20
0.40
1.12
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.45
1.60
0.60
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.31+3.5%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 3.35-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
William Hil
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.9%
@ 2.40+3.0%
Under 1.5
58.1%
@ 1.53-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.67-1.5%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.12+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lecce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.6%
@ 1.77+3.2%
Under
44.4%
@ 1.95-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Lecce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.2%
@ 4.94-0.6%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.15+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Lecce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 10.25-4.5%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Monza over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.7%
@ 2.06+1.7%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.69-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Monza over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.5%
@ 6.73-1.3%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.08+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Monza over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 11.75-5.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+2.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+4.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+3.2%
Under 4.5
91.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+2.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+0.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+4.3%
Under 11.5 corners
87.6%
1.36
Unibet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+19.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+1.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+0.4%
Home +2 handicap
86.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+0.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+8.0%
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+0.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+2.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+3.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+0.3%
Over 2.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lecce
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Monza
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gustavo Varela100%
Andrea Colpani33%
Omari Forson33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lorenzo Lucchesi67%
Eddy Kouadio33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Mathis Mout0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Cutrone33%
Ricardo Mangas33%
Mathis Mout33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela67%
Patrick Cutrone33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Lecce's squad is €2m more valuable than Monza's (€72m vs €70m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Lecce's attack is €6m less valuable than Monza's (€20m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Lecce's midfield is €8m less valuable than Monza's (€16m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Lecce's defence is €17m more valuable than Monza's (€37m vs €20m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Venezia
Fiorentina