Leganes enter the game on a winning streak, having just edged Oviedo 1-0, while Eldense comes off a 2-2 draw with Cadiz. The model sees a 57 % chance of a home win, 27 % for a draw and 16 % for an away win, making the home victory the clear favourite. With an expected total of 2.4 goals, the most likely total is two goals, a 27 % probability, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-0, carrying a 13.5 % chance. Eldense’s away form against stronger opposition shows an average of 0.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded, suggesting a defensive frailty that Leganes can exploit. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (98.8 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2 % with a 4 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.3 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 2.5 goals (95.6 % with a 9 % edge), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.4 % with a 2 % edge).
Results analysis
The win extends Leganés’ two-game winning run, while Eldense returns from a defeat. The model’s favourite was a Home win with a 55% probability, and the prediction proved correct as the final score was 1-0, a Home win. The most likely scoreline was 1-0, with a 27% chance, and the expected total of 2.4 goals was in line with the 1-0 result. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 96.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.6%, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 95.2%. The model’s selections performed overwhelmingly well.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leganes win✓ Hit
55.1%
Avg Implied 49.2% · @ 1.89
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.95
Dafabet
1.94
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.39
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
Dafabet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Eldense win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.97
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.39
1xBet
4.27
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Bet365
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leganes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.30
1.20
1.00
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.32
1.21
1.00
0.93
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.67
1.12
1.69
1.07
1.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.83
1.29
1.43
0.40
2.40
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.59
1.00
1.89
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leganes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.32-0.2%
Under 1.5
29.6%
@ 3.17+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.1%
@ 2.04-3.2%
Under 2.5
56.9%
@ 1.76+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Under
SBO
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
@ 3.63-3.6%
Under 3.5
77.8%
@ 1.26+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.90
Pinnacle
3.89
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
@ 1.84-4.9%
No
54.8%
@ 1.85+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Betfair
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
No
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
13.3%@ 6.05+6.1%
1-1
12.8%@ 6.05+5.5%
2-0
11.6%@ 7.93+6.1%
0-0
10.2%@ 8.46+5.0%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.79+3.7%
3-0
6.2%@ 14.51+3.2%
0-1
6.1%@ 9.59+1.5%
3-1
5.0%@ 14.41+1.9%
Leganes goals ↓
Eldense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.1%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.7%
1.2%
0.3%
2
12%
9.3%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.5%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leganes goals (down), columns = Eldense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Leganes is 0.04 points worse than Eldense in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Leganes is 0.06 goals worse than Eldense in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Leganes is 0.38 goals better than Eldense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leganes
For 4.7 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 13.6 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eldense
For 5.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.3 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leganes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.0
9.2
5.0
5.1
4.9
26.1
27.3
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
-
9.0
3.5
-
3.5
19.0
-
19.0
vs Similar (45)
9.6
10.1
9.0
5.2
5.1
5.4
26.5
27.6
25.5
vs Weaker (3)
9.5
7.0
12.0
3.0
6.0
1.5
23.5
21.0
26.0
% over line
48%
52%
44%
78%
79%
77%
86%
83%
88%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
22%
21%
23%
14%
17%
12%
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
10.0
4.3
4.3
4.2
24.2
24.0
24.3
vs Stronger (16)
10.1
8.6
11.7
4.7
4.3
5.1
23.9
24.1
23.6
vs Similar (32)
9.3
9.3
9.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
24.3
23.9
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
30%
50%
64%
72%
56%
73%
83%
64%
% under line
60%
70%
50%
36%
28%
44%
27%
17%
36%
This opponent (Leganes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Almeria
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eldense
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.3
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.8
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.3
Celta de Vigo II
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
6.5
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.6
Valladolid
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
Almeria
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
Leganes
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.6
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.6
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
32.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.3
Castellón
28.3
FC Andorra
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
Sabadell
27.6
Las Palmas
27.3
Tenerife
27.1
Granada CF
27.0
Burgos
26.5
Almeria
26.4
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.4%
@ 1.86+4.6%
Under 9.5
45.6%
@ 1.85-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.37+6.7%
Under 3.5
25.3%
@ 2.92-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.92
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.1%
Under 21.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leganes or Draw✓ Hit
82.4%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.22
Edge
+6.1%
55%
27%
18%
covers Leganes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Leganes or Eldense✓ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.6%
55%
27%
18%
covers Leganes + Eldense
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Eldense✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.86
Edge
-5.4%
55%
27%
18%
covers Draw + Eldense
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.85
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leganes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.8%
@ 1.21+2.8%
Under
20.2%
@ 4.04-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.40
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Leganes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.5%
@ 2.04+1.8%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.72-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Under
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Leganes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.6%
@ 4.29+0.0%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.18-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.60
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Leganes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 9.57-1.9%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.90
Marathonbet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Eldense over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
55.2%
@ 1.51-6.3%
Under
44.8%
@ 2.41+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Eldense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.2%
@ 3.47-7.6%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.27+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Eldense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.81-5.8%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.05+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
Superbet
9.10
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Eldense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 22.83-3.3%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leganes, so a minus line means Leganes give that many goals of a start and Eldense receive them. At -1, Leganes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leganes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leganes)Actual: Eldense
Leganes -2
12.9%
@ 7.30+0.6%
Draw -2
17.4%
@ 5.29+0.5%
Eldense +2
69.7%
@ 1.26-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Marathonbet
6.40
Draw
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Away
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Handicap -1 (Leganes)Actual: Draw
Leganes -1
30.3%
@ 3.42+4.3%
Draw -1
24.8%
@ 3.52-0.5%
Eldense +1
44.9%
@ 1.83-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Handicap +1 (Leganes)Actual: Leganes
Leganes +1
82.4%
@ 1.23+9.7%
Draw +1
11.9%
@ 5.29-5.0%
Eldense -1
5.7%
@ 8.62-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
8.00
Handicap +2 (Leganes)Actual: Leganes
Leganes +2
94.3%
@ 1.06+5.2%
Draw +2
4.4%
@ 13.00-2.9%
Eldense -2
1.3%
@ 26.00-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leganes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.33
0.47
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.50
0.36
0.43
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.25
0.56
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.75
0.29
0.57
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.59
0.22
0.56
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Leganes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.42+1.3%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 2.71-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.78
10Bet
2.75
Superbet
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.3%
@ 2.96-4.3%
Under 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.36+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.21
Betano
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 7.69-2.6%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leganes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.1%
@ 1.87+1.6%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.84-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Leganes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.7%
@ 5.25-4.9%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.12+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Leganes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 14.42-1.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Eldense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.7%
@ 2.59-4.1%
Under
68.3%
@ 1.45+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
1xBet
2.58
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Eldense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.22-4.3%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.30
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Eldense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 40.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leganes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.87
0.53
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.82
0.86
0.57
0.64
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.00
0.88
1.12
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
1.08
1.00
0.86
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (17)
0.76
1.00
0.78
1.33
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Leganes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.0%
@ 1.27+1.6%
Under 0.5
25.0%
@ 3.52-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.6%
@ 2.24+1.9%
Under 1.5
56.4%
@ 1.60-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 4.92-0.9%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.15+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.15
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leganes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.6%
@ 1.61+0.1%
Under
42.4%
@ 2.19-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.12
Leganes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.9%
@ 3.90-1.8%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.21+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Leganes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 10.25-4.7%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Eldense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.2%
@ 2.15-1.9%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.63+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Eldense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 6.92-4.4%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.20
Superbet
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Eldense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 20.67-2.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.4%
1.22
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+9.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
80.8%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.8%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.0%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.7%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.36
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.7%
1.27
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.4%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
-0.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leganes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Miguel Atienza33%
Ismael Gharbi33%
Naim García33%
Patrick Soko0%
Dani Rodríguez0%
Ignasi Miquel0%
Rubén Peña0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Álex Millán0%
Zico Buurmeester0%
Marvel0%
Lalo Aguilar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ignasi Miquel33%
Álex Millán33%
Marvel33%
Patrick Soko0%
Dani Rodríguez0%
Rubén Peña0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Zico Buurmeester0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Naim García0%
Lalo Aguilar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Naim García33%
Patrick Soko0%
Dani Rodríguez0%
Ignasi Miquel0%
Rubén Peña0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Álex Millán0%
Zico Buurmeester0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Marvel0%
Lalo Aguilar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Soko0%
Dani Rodríguez0%
Ignasi Miquel0%
Rubén Peña0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Álex Millán0%
Zico Buurmeester0%
Ismael Gharbi0%
Naim García0%
Marvel0%
Lalo Aguilar0%
Eldense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fidel0%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Jesús Clemente0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Guillermo Macho0%
David Ruiz Montero0%
Mariano Carmona0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jesús Clemente33%
Guillermo Macho33%
David Ruiz Montero33%
Fidel0%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Mariano Carmona0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fidel0%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Jesús Clemente0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Guillermo Macho0%
David Ruiz Montero0%
Mariano Carmona0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fidel33%
David Ruiz Montero33%
Jordi Martín0%
Ramon Vila0%
Jorge Rastrojo0%
Jesús Clemente0%
Justin Smith0%
Floris Smand0%
Guillermo Macho0%
Mariano Carmona0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Leganes's squad is €22m more valuable than Eldense's (€30m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Leganes's attack is €11m more valuable than Eldense's (€14m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Leganes's midfield is €6m more valuable than Eldense's (€8m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Leganes's defence is €5m more valuable than Eldense's (€8m vs €3m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC