PythiaFootballBETA
This Ukraine Premier League match between Livyi Bereh and Oleksandria is finely balanced, with recent form suggesting that both teams are in good shape. Livyi Bereh have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing 3 and winning 2, while Oleksandria are on a 2-game winning run. However, the model still predicts a home win, with a 40% chance of Livyi Bereh taking the three points.
The expected total goals in this match is 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but this outcome is not the model's selection. The model's selection is the home win, with a 40% chance of Livyi Bereh winning, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of Oleksandria winning.
Livyi Bereh have a strong home record, scoring an average of 2 goals per match and conceding just 1.33. Oleksandria, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring an average of just 0.83 goals per match and conceding 1.5.
The model's suggested picks include an Under 3.5 goals selection, which has a high probability of 77.1%, and an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has a probability of 71.2%.
Livyi Bereh's win extends their unbeaten run to 5 games. The final score was 1-0, confirming a home win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Livyi Bereh, with a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's call was correct, as Livyi Bereh took home the win. The model's selection, Livyi Bereh, was the favourite. The model's selection to go under 3.5 goals hit, with an 77.1% probability, while the selection to go over 1.5 goals missed, with a 71.2% probability.
Livyi Bereh| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 0.67 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 1.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.83 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.67 | 0.50 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Oleksandria| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.87 | 0.67 | 1.93 | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.67 | 2.17 | 0.83 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 2.17 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.75 | 1.75 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 3% (-29pp vs league) | |||||
| Oleksandria goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Livyi BerehOleksandriaLivyi Bereh| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 27.5 | 30.0 | 25.5 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 25.8 | 29.0 | 22.5 |
| vs Similar (15) | 8.2 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 28.0 | 29.5 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 10.5 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 30.0 | 33.0 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 45% | 40% | 50% | 12% | 8% | 15% | 82% | 80% | 83% |
| % under line | 55% | 60% | 50% | 88% | 92% | 85% | 18% | 20% | 17% |
Oleksandria| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 22.9 | 22.6 | 23.2 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 8.4 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 19.6 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (20) | 10.6 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 24.0 | 27.0 | 22.9 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 24.3 | 23.5 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 55% | 60% | 50% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 59% | 50% | 67% |
| % under line | 45% | 40% | 50% | 76% | 75% | 77% | 41% | 50% | 33% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 2-0 |
Livyi Bereh| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/06/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
Oleksandria| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 3-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 72 | 73% | 2.4 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 3.1 | 70% | 60% | 47% | 9.1 | 36% | 3.2 | 43% | 19.1 | 14% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 68% |
| 2 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 1.9 | 53% | 27% | 13% | 9.0 | 42% | 3.8 | 47% | 20.3 | 42% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 44% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 30% | 8.8 | 22% | 3.1 | 21% | 19.1 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 4 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 3.4 | 80% | 70% | 43% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.1 | 38% | 20.2 | 38% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 5 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 51 | 43% | 1.7 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 1.8 | 57% | 23% | 17% | 11.3 | 65% | 3.6 | 41% | 22.1 | 53% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 56% |
| 6 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 49 | 43% | 1.6 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 1.8 | 57% | 27% | 13% | 7.9 | 35% | 4.2 | 65% | 26.5 | 88% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 7 |  Kryvbas KR | 30 | 48 | 43% | 1.6 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 3.3 | 80% | 67% | 40% | 11.7 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.9 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 46 | 40% | 1.5 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 2.6 | 73% | 53% | 33% | 10.6 | 62% | 3.2 | 38% | 22.4 | 50% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Karpaty | 30 | 41 | 33% | 1.4 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 2.4 | 67% | 40% | 27% | 8.7 | 31% | 4.4 | 56% | 23.6 | 69% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 2.7 | 63% | 50% | 33% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.1 | 33% | 24.1 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 11 |  Veres Rivne | 30 | 31 | 23% | 1.0 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 2.2 | 63% | 33% | 23% | 10.5 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.7 | 58% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 12 |  Kudrivka | 32 | 30 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 34% | 9.4 | 40% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.1 | 80% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 29 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 31% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 65% | 26.8 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 14 |  Ruh Lviv | 30 | 21 | 20% | 0.7 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 2.4 | 67% | 50% | 13% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.6 | 53% | 27.6 | 87% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 31 | 18 | 10% | 0.6 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 2.6 | 77% | 45% | 26% | 10.4 | 64% | 4.5 | 53% | 22.8 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 16 |  SK Poltava | 30 | 13 | 7% | 0.4 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 3.2 | 90% | 60% | 43% | 9.2 | 38% | 3.2 | 38% | 23.9 | 62% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 40% |
| 17 | Livyi Bereh | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 18 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 42% |